The week in markets: it all depends on the Fed

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts In this podcast, Julius Baer head of research Asia Mark Matthews discusses the decline in the oil price and its impact on inflation, and how if current market prices were used in the official inflation measure, core inflation would be at around 3%. They are sure to show up in due time. Whether the US avoids a recession or not depends in large part on the Fed. We think it can avoid one if the rate hike on Wednesday is the last in this cycle, which happens to be our view. Consolidation in the S&P after the 14% gain in the 6 weeks leading up to December is not surprising, and even welcome. We think it will be over by Christmas, then the market can rally into year-end, and the beginning of next year.