The Wholesale Price Surge That Changes the Recession Outlook

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna drill into the May 2026 wholesale price data released on June 11: a 1.1% month-over-month jump, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. They contrast this with the still-cooling consumer price backdrop and the ECB's surprise rate hike, the first since 2023. The hosts argue that the producer price surge may be the missing piece that shifts the recession narrative from 'soft landing' to 'stagflation risk.' Lucas walks through the transmission mechanism from PPI to corporate margins to hiring decisions, while Luna challenges whether this is really a new signal or just noise from one-off geopolitical shocks. They also touch on the yield curve spread at 0.39 percentage points, the VIX drop to 16, and what markets may be missing. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026. #RecessionWatch #Economics #WholesalePrices #PPI #Inflation #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #Stagflation #ProducerPrices #YieldCurve #VIX #SoftLanding #JoblessClaims #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo