The Wire - December 11, 2024 - Priority

//The Wire//2300Z December 11, 2024////PRIORITY////BLUF: CONCERNS GROW REGARDING NEW JERSEY AIRCRAFT SIGHTINGS. MAJOR CHINESE ACTIVITY REPORTED IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. SYRIAN REBELS NOW CONTROL SIGNIFICANT STOCKPILES OF MANPADS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Syria: Concerns are growing regarding the staggering amount of military arms that are now in the hands of HTS rebels throughout the country. Though Israel, Turkey, and the United States have bombed most military arms caches throughout the country, the al-Qaeda-linked “rebels” now control hundreds (if not thousands) of Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs), tens of thousands of rockets, the entire Syrian Air Force, and the like. Far East: Concerns are also mounting regarding China’s recent activities in the Taiwan Strait. Currently, China has declared extremely large scale naval exercises throughout the region, which have drawn concerns that this may actually be the prelude to a military invasion of Taiwan. As of this morning over 90 surface vessels have taken part in maneuvers in the waters surrounding Taiwan, with hundreds of aircraft also participating in exercises to some degree.AC: So far, the Chinese doctrine of camouflaging drills with legitimate invasion plans is working, and thus it’s too soon to tell if China will indeed invade Taiwan. Considering the events in the Middle East, and the outgoing American administration, it is possible that China means to strike while the iron is hot. However, as previously noted following the rapid-pace of deteriorating events around the world, it would also be in China’s best interest to flex their power in the region, without actually committing to a full-blown war. Also, the typical list of indications that would lead up to invasion plans hasn’t materialized in many ways that one might expect if China were planning to militarily invade Taiwan.-HomeFront-New Jersey: Speculation surrounding the recent drone sightings throughout the state has increased following more people becoming aware of the situation. So far, not much information has been made public regarding what is going on. However, due to the attention being placed on these events, various official statements have been made. Governor Phil Murphy has acknowledged the drones (and the dozens of sightings), but hasn’t commented on the aircraft much, except to say that the drones are not a threat to public safety. Yesterday, locals reported that one of the aircraft crashed in Montville, though almost zero details have come to light to confirm this incident, and all reporting on this alleged crash is single-source at the moment and therefore could be a false report. Companies and military contractors have weighed in on the aircraft as well. Picatinny Arsenal, a major military contractor for R&D of various technologies has stated that the devices aren’t related to their research, but they have confirmed sighting 11 drones themselves since November.This afternoon, various politicians have stated that the drones being observed in New Jersey are suspected to be of Iranian origin, and that they are being launched from a “mothership” that is operating off the coast. More specifically, most of the information being repeated by authorities indicates that no one knows who is operating the craft, or where they come from, but many have been observed arriving and departing from the coast. Additionally, the craft allegedly do not have any signals being transmitted to them, and the lighting onboard the aircraft turns off when the aircraft is approached.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The unidentified “drone” situation in New Jersey has become more concerning as more sightings have occurred. However, these reports are probably related to more people actually being on the lookout now that the story has gone viral. As such, an increase in reports does not always equa