The Wire - December 16, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 16, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: OHIO AIR FORCE BASE BRIEFLY CLOSES AIRSPACE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO UAS ACTIVITY. NEW JERSEY “DRONE” SITUATION CONTINUES WITH LITTLE NEW EVIDENCE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Germany: This morning a vote of no confidence was held in the Bundestag, resulting in Chancellor Scholtz’s government collapsing. Snap elections are to be held in February.Canada: Finance Minister Freeland resigned her post this morning following conflict within PM Trudeau’s cabinet. Freeland reported that Trudeau asked her to step down as Finance Minister to serve in another cabinet position over the weekend, which she replied to this morning by resigning outright.Syria: Israeli forces have continued their north and eastward axis of advance from the Golan Heights into Syria. Turkish activities in the North continue as well, though remain harder to discern as fighting continues in the remote terrain of northeastern Syria. However, indications are growing that the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is preparing for a large-scale offensive against the Kurds along the eastern front.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. – The White House has continued the large-scale pardons issued by the outgoing Biden regime, with 39 pardons and 1,499 commutations being announced on Thursday.Wisconsin: A school shooting was reported at the Abundant Life Christian School in Madison this morning. So far, 3x fatalities and 7x wounded were reported following the shooting, and the assailant took their own life at the scene.Ohio: Following the events in New Jersey over the past few weeks, Wright-Patterson Air Force base reported an airspace closure due to drones inhibiting flight operations. Friday night base officials observed many drones of varying sizes and configurations, which resulted in the issuance of NOTAMs number M1132, M1133, and M1134, which resulted in the complete closure of the airspace for several hours.New Jersey: No clear and indisputable evidence has been noted over the past few days to indicate what the recent “drone” crisis may be. Statements by officials have been mixed. New York claims to have requested “drone detection systems” from the federal government, and that these resources (whatever they are) are being deployed around the tri-state area.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The implementation of a “drone detection system” in New York is interesting in that framing the response in this manner signals the lack of understanding regarding drone detection and surveillance. The U.S. government doesn’t have a magic suitcase of tech that can make everything okay. There’s much more to it than that; drone detection and mitigation technology is an extremely wide and varied subject area, with many different means of monitoring aerial objects. From NORAD’s extremely capable suite of radar systems, to satellite-based technologies, to the intricate web of counter-drone technologies, down to the individual user level in many cases, there are a plethora of options for detecting what these “drones” might be, and where they originate from. This morning, President Trump alluded to as much, very bluntly stating that the U.S. government knows exactly what the situation is regarding the drones that have genuinely been observed. This matter-of-fact statement points to what is fairly obvious; the chances of the US government not already tracking every piece of technology in the United States, are zero. There is absolutely zero chance that at least two dozen different federal agencies haven’t already weeded out the fake/erroneous reports from the genuine sightings, and already identified where these “drones” are coming from.More broadly however, in the realm of national security, sometimes wishing will indeed make it so. Right now, there are very real drone threats to critical infrastructur