The Wire - December 20, 2024

//The Wire//2000Z December 20, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: FAA ENACTS MORE NO-FLY-ZONES AROUND ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONS IN TRI-STATE AREA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Germany: This evening a vehicle-ramming attack took place at a Christmas Markt in Magdeburg. A vehicle rammed into a crowd of people partaking in celebrations, killing 11x and wounding upwards of 60x people. AC: As this incident is currently developing at the time of this report casualty figures will likely be revised as the situation develops.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. – An agreement has not yet been reached in Congress regarding the budgetary continuing resolution, indicating that a government shutdown may begin at midnight.Northeast: Throughout the region more flight restrictions have been emplaced, with 8x new airspace closures being announced throughout the tri-state area. Continuing the trend from New Jersey, the airspace closures are largely centered around electrical substations located on Long Island.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In the closed-door meetings amongst high-ranking counterterrorism officials, it would seem that no one has pondered the reasoning as to why our critical infrastructure sites do not already have no-fly-zones around them. This is largely due to the historical analysis that the implementation of such can actually cause more harm than good, mostly because it highlights exactly which sites are most vulnerable to drone attacks.Additionally, most of the no-fly-zones have been emplaced with parameters that are largely ineffective. For instance, most of the TFRs have been enacted covering the airspace from surface level to 400 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). This is not just a random number, this is the parameter set by the FAA for the use of recreational drones. Without special approval, recreational drones can’t be flown at an altitude of over 400 feet AGL in the United States. From a counterterrorism perspective, this is utter nonsense. No would-be terrorist seeking to use a drone to target critical infrastructure is going to play by the rules.Once again, this small detail dismissed by most is a massive ‘tell’ that indicates how incapable federal agencies are. Remember, the FBI is coming at the issue from the angle they always do…that they can’t stop any terror attack that they don’t have a hand in planning and carrying out themselves. In short, if a would-be attacker doesn’t get groomed and assisted by the FBI at some point during their attack preparations, the FBI is powerless to stop (or even know about) the attack in the first place. For instance, the FBI is coming off of their recent bust, the November arrest of Skyler Philippi, who was allegedly planning to use a drone to attack an electrical substation in Nashville. This case involved the FBI choosing to provide materiel support to a well-known mentally unstable individual, to include providing attack plans, explosives, and assistance at the attack site on the day of the planned attack.This is the mindset federal agents are operating from; that terrorism as the American people instinctively know it doesn’t really exist, and that any serious threat to the homeland simply can’t materialize without the FBI’s help. This is a very dangerous perspective to operate from, as it very obviously injects ego into counterterrorism doctrine. Putting up a no-fly zone around electrical substations strongly indicates this hubris; anyone with any minuscule counterterrorism experience can assert that these no-fly zones are going to do more harm than good because the lawful users of drones are not causing the problems. From the perspective of warfare doctrine, wargaming this decision for five minutes continues to demonstrate how bad of an idea this is. Much like how any obstacle on the battlefield must be observed at all times, the implementation of a no-fly-zone must