The Wire - December 27, 2023

RR The Wire 1700Z December 27, 2023PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RRDTG: 170027Z DEC 23ICOD: 160027Z DEC 23CONTROLS: Public ReleaseQQQQBLUF: MAERSK ALLEGEDLY RESUMES SHIPPING IN RED SEA. U.S. BORDER CRISIS DEEPENS. -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Central America: Drought conditions in Panama create worst delays seen yet for ships transiting the Panama Canal. AC: As a reminder, the drought in Panama has been ongoing for months, causing delays for all ships transiting the choke point. Ironically, the region saw better-than-expected rainfall during November, which has alleviated the problems significantly. However, over the past few days the lake that feeds fresh water to the locks systems essential for the transit of ships has been too low, causing more delays. In the context of global shipping routes feeling strain, this is important to note as the cost increases incurred by shipping companies will be passed on to the consumer.Red Sea/HOA: US CENTCOM announced that the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down twelve drones, three ASCMs, and two LACMs yesterday. These engagements come as Maersk announces the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.AC: It is unclear as to if Maersk will actually be resuming shipping through the region. Ships have been scheduled to make the transit over the coming weeks, but doctrinally speaking, the adversary always gets a vote in future plans. Yemen has demonstrated their ability to target ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, even with substantial U.S. Navy protection. If commercial ships begin to resume normal operations in the Red Sea, we will see an increase in targeting as Yemen has learned valuable Anti-Shipping combat experience over the past few weeks.Gaza/Israel: The war continues as before. Israeli operations have expanded in Gaza as the fighting becomes even more brutal on both sides. Attacks from Hezbollah have intensified in the north as rocket attacks become more numerous and frequent. Hezbollah has also demonstrated the ability to regularly target locations deep inside Israel. AC: Though details are sketchy at best, some sources indicate that Hezbollah has targeted Iron Dome missile defense sites in Capri with laser-guided munitions. If these reports are true, the munitions in question are probably Basir 155mm artillery shells of likely Iranian origin (which itself is a copy of the old Soviet 2K25 Krasnopol system). Though unconfirmed reporting is not definitive by any means, if this is true this would be both a substantial escalation of the conflict in the north, and also likely the first operational test (by Hezbollah) of these advanced weapons systems.-Homefront-USA: Border crisis deepens following another surge of illegal immigrants during the Christmas holiday weekend. Some media outlets are reporting (via confidential sources) that around 30,000 illegals were detained over the weekend. AC: Though independent verification is not possible yet, these numbers are in line with the severity of the latest illegal immigrant surge. As a reminder, almost all of these “detentions” and “apprehensions” are temporary and do not result in immediate deportation, but rather transportation deeper into America’s interior.Analyst Comments: The conflict in the Red Sea is the epitome of an age-old idea within the field of insurgency. The Houthis only have to be lucky once, the U.S. Navy has to be lucky every single time. If the U.S. Navy (and other coalition vessels) cannot provide reliable protection for commercial vessels, the global maritime community will eventually respond. Even the highly-manipulated financial markets (which have not responded appropriately to this crisis) cannot remain grounded in fantasy forever. In due time, missile shortages are going to catch up with the U.S. Navy…shortages that are not present in Yemen.