The Wire - December 31, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 31, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: TEPID RELATIONS CONTINUE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND AZERBAIJAN FOLLOWING SHOOTDOWN INCIDENT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Global: Solar weather is expected to peak overnight as a Geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for Dec 31 into Jan 1. AC: Over the next day, GPS and radio signals may be degraded if a substantial geomagnetic storm materializes.Russia: President Vladimir Putin allegedly expressed condolences for Russia’s involvement in the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in a private call with Azerbaijan’s President.-HomeFront-USA: Facebook/META and Instagram have announced plans to introduce AI-generated “users” to their platforms, drawing the ire of the users still using these social media platforms. AC: While seemingly a minor development in the world of social media, it’s already hard enough to discern the truth on the internet, much less when the developers of platforms themselves push AI-generated content on their platforms.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: As the transcript of the phone call between Russia and Azerbaijan has not yet been released, only secondary sources of unknown veracity have commented on the contents of the call. Allegedly Putin apologized for the incident, but did not directly take responsibility for the shootdown. In any case, the leadership of both nations are treating this incident as a tragic accident for the moment, although tensions among Azeris are high following the incident. For instance, Azeri President Aliyev accused Putin of attempting to downplay the incident. Regarding the exact cause of the crisis, Russia has not directly and clearly admitted to shooting down the aircraft, however Putin has mentioned that Russian Air Defense Artillery (ADA) units were engaging Ukrainian drones at the time of the incident. This highly coincidental statement might be the best Azerbaijan can get at the moment in terms of an admission of guilt from Russia. Putin’s indirect apology is also very likely due to what are likely to be perceived as Azerbaijan’s unreasonable demands. President Aliyev has demanded three things: An apology from Russia (which they already have), An admission of guilt by Russia, and criminal trial of the Russian soldiers responsible. This latter point is absolutely not going to happen, and probably isn’t expected to either because Azerbaijan’s further demand is that of money…compensation for the accident in the form of a check made out to the Azeri government. Putin is not the man to engage in a shakedown operation with, so relations between Azerbaijan and Russia might be rather lukewarm for some time.Analyst: S2A1//END REPORT//