The Wire - February 23, 2024 - Priority

//The Wire//2300Z February 23, 2024////PRIORITY////BLUF: UNIDENTIFIED HIGH-ALTITUDE BALLOON SPOTTED OVER WESTERN USA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------Homefront-USA: This afternoon, CBS News leaked a report indicating that the U.S. military was tracking an unidentified high-altitude balloon over the western United States. According to CBS, Pentagon officials stated that the origin and intentions of the balloon were unknown, but that the object was “not at threat”. AC: It is unclear as to how an unknown object can be confirmed to not be a threat.Directly quoting the initial CBS report, “One official said the balloon was over Colorado earlier in the day and was expected to be over Georgia by Friday night. The official said the balloon appeared to be made of Mylar and had a small cube-shaped box, about two feet long on each side, hanging below it.”Independent analysis conducted is as follows: No NOTAMs were issued to indicate the position of the craft. A total of three ham radio balloons were aloft over the western USA at the time of initial reports, but all three were transmitting their positions openly as required by the FAA. Independent analysis of raw weather radar returns yielded no reliable results, and weather modeling indicated an eastern track was most likely, with prevailing winds carrying the craft over Georgia within a few hours.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Though the fog of war is challenging to work within at the moment, in the interest of expediency (and weighed against the potential to be alarmist) it would be prudent to assume that this event is somehow linked to the mass cyber events that occurred yesterday.Though this is purely speculative and bases heavy analysis on very few details, if this balloon is Chinese in origin, previous balloon incidents strongly indicate that the balloon has been in U.S. airspace for hours, at least since the cyber events yesterday. Without question, if this is indeed a Chinese balloon that takes many days to transit the United States, this would mean that the federal regime knew about this balloon (which was likely already over U.S. soil), during the cyber events yesterday.If the description of the balloon provided to CBS is accurate, this device (while much smaller than previous balloons) is far too large to comprise of any legitimate civilian technology. The payload consisting of a two-foot cube shaped object is significantly larger than any normal civilian payload for research purposes. Additionally, as all civilian high-altitude balloons are required by the FAA to transmit identification data on pre-determined frequencies, the de facto admission that this has not been done strongly indicates a more nefarious use in line with previous spy balloon sightings. Granting even more weight to the potential nefariousness of this craft is that, in the CBS report, the balloon is reportedly traveling at an altitude of over 40,000 ft. At this altitude, any hobby or research devices will need a plethora of special permissions in order to deconflict airspace and not present hazards to aviation. Weather balloons routinely fly higher, but are much smaller and also openly transmit their position.Though it is impossible to know for certain, and it is easy to over-assess the potential threats, the most dangerous potential COA would be for this to be the initial stages of more complex activity. Historically, airspace violations are quite serious events with dire diplomatic implications. However (if confirmed to be foreign), this is more likely a probing action (possibly coupled with cyber events) intended to both collect intelligence and test responses.In any case, the chances of these multiple events occurring nearly simultaneously are very remote. Likewise, as distasteful as it may be to admit, the U.S. Department of