The Wire - February 25, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z February 25, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: CARTEL VIOLENCE CONTINUES SOUTH OF U.S. BORDER. GERMAN CDU REVERSES STANCE ON IMMIGRATION POLICIES AFTER ELECTION.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Germany: Following the weekend election cycle, discontent has been a common observation as various politicians have backtracked on campaign promises. CDU leadership, for instance, has deliberately flipped on their main campaign issue regarding immigration. During the campaign, the CDU's primary initiative was to limit immigration into Germany. After the election, CDU leadership (presumptive Chancellor Friedrich Merz) reneged on this promise, stating that the border will not be closed. AC: Though unsurprising to most who had the foresight to perceive this European tradition of complete policy reversals after elections, many others are rather upset as this sharp reversal affects a policy issue pertinent to most Germans.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Controversy continues in Congress regarding Rep. Dan Crenshaw's threat to murder Tucker Carlson. Crenshaw was caught making the comment during a hot-mic incident as part of a media interview a few days ago.Southern Border Region: Following the IED incident in Tamaulipas earlier this month, Texas authorities have issued more warnings pertaining to the use of Improvised Anti-Vehicle Land Mines (IAVMs) in the vicinity of the border.-----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For clarification, this afternoon the Texas Department of Agriculture issued a warning to ranchers in the border region, warning them about the IED incident that occurred earlier this month. This warning statement was poorly worded, and did not provide the context that the event occurred nearly a month ago, and took place in Mexico almost a hundred miles south of the US border. The notice also referred to an American citizen being killed in the IED blast, however the wording of this announcement is slightly misleading since there is zero mention of the IED blast actually occurring inside Mexico. This missing context (and the contradictory details originating from sources with unknown veracity), is important to understand in terms of assessing the risk as accurately as possible.Over the past few months, clashes of increasing severity have been reported between the Gulf Cartel (CDG) and the Northeast Cartel (CDN) as both groups (but more importantly, various splinter groups from these two main organizations) continue the turf war south of Brownsville. Increased use of IEDs and weaponized drones has been reported semi-randomly throughout this increased period of conflict, with many innocent victims frequently being caught in the crossfire. So far the IED threat has not transitioned north across the border yet, however local authorities continue to issue the warnings nonetheless. Far more concerning are the increasingly significant small arms attacks and skirmishes that have taken place at the border itself over the past few weeks, between adversarial cartel groups.Analyst: S2A1Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground//END REPORT//