The Wire - January 11, 2024

RR The Wire 2230Z January 11, 2024PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RRDTG: 223011Z JAN 24ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24CONTROLS: Public ReleaseQQQQBLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago. Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst: S2AEND REPORTNNNN