The Wire - March 25, 2024

//The Wire//2230Z March 25, 2024////ROUTINE////BLUF: UNSC APPROVES TEMPORARY GAZA CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-France: The terror alert scale has been raised to its maximum level following the terror attack in Moscow. AC: It is unclear as to why France has done this; the nature of the Moscow attack (and the highly questionable details of the incident) does not lend itself to being an indicator of follow on attacks, or at least not any more than France experiences routinely. However, French authorities could be concerned with the potential reactionary attitudes throughout their nation, which may increase the chances of copycat attacks.-HomeFront-New York: The United Nations Security Council adopts a ceasefire resolution for Gaza following the abstention of the United States.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The impacts of a UNSC ceasefire resolution are unclear for many reasons. The text of the resolution itself is halfhearted at best, only intending to provide a ceasefire for the last two weeks of Ramadan. No continuing peace agreement is on the table. However ineffective this resolution may be, perhaps the most significant impacts will be had on the diplomatic front. The abstention by the United States (instead of a “no” vote” has soured relations with Israel, with PM Netanyahu canceling an official visit to the United States because of it. However, this does highlight the unique nature of special interest groups in American politics, pulling official government policy in every direction, usually with confusing and contradictory results. Competing and contradictory interests even within government agencies have obfuscated all US policy regarding this conflict for some time. Of course, it is up to the belligerents of the conflict as to whether or not a ceasefire shall be reached; a piece of paper at the UN means nothing on the ground. Likewise, the involvement of the US on either side is uncertain. If a ceasefire agreement comes into effect, what is to become of the US military operation to build logistical infrastructure in Gaza? As with almost all US foreign policy conducted over the past few decades, it is often challenging to discern whether inexperience, corruption, or imbecility of the highest order is the cause for American diplomatic follies overseas. However, in this case, the combination of all three is likely to result in little change in the conflict with regards to American involvement.Analyst: S2A1//END REPORT//