The Wire - October 21, 2023

RR The Wire 2330Z October 21, 2023 PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RRDTG: 233021Z OCT 23ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23CONTROLS: Public ReleaseQQQQBLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.-----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.-HomeFront-USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.-Analyst Comments-While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding. From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst: S2AEND REPORTNNNN