The Yield Curve Uninversion What History Says Next

Episode 45 of The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a quiet but significant market signal: the yield curve has been positively sloped for over a month after two years of inversion. As of June 11, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.53, the 2-year at 4.13 — a spread of 40 basis points. Historically, every recession since the 1970s was preceded by a curve inversion, but the actual downturn often arrived months after the curve re-steepened. The hosts walk through the 1990-91, 2001, and 2008 examples, showing how the S&P 500 rallied an average of 8 percent in the six months after uninversion before trouble hit. They also discuss why this time might be different: the post-inversion GDP growth rate is 1.6 percent annualized, not negative, and small caps (Russell 2000) are actually up 1.4 percent in the last five days while the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. Lucas argues the signal is a yellow flag, not a red one. Luna pushes back on recency bias. Specific, grounded, no hot takes. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #RecessionSignal #10YearTreasury #2YearTreasury #BondMarket #S&P500 #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #GDPGrowth #BearMarketPodcast #Finance #Investing #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #BondYield Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo