This is how the RECESSION starts in 2026 | Phil Neuhart

Phil Neuhart is the Director of Market and Economic Research at First Citizens Wealth. He joins Phil Rosen on Full Signal to break down the tension between rising geopolitical uncertainty and a surprisingly resilient stock market, the real recession trigger to watch in the labor market, why mega caps may be less insulated than investors think, the Fed's impossible position, and what an AI unwind would actually look like.This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbellSubscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribeFollow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosennFollow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philrosen/Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:20 - Uncertainty vs. resilience1:30 - Tail risks investors are ignoring2:50 - The bear case3:25 - Labor market as a recession trigger5:40 - Stocks insulated from oil?6:30 - Earnings season and the multiple contraction10:20 - Complex Fed outlook12:55 - What would trigger the first rate cut?13:50 - Kevin Warsh's problem15:30 - AI trade rotation18:10 - Bullish small caps20:20 - AI as scapegoat for layoffs24:50 - Recession odds27:35 - Does history still apply to this market?28:50 - Follow Phil NeuhartDisclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed