The stock market is up, but remains unsteady. China's economy might be in more danger than they're letting on. AI coding gets a big upgrade. Google warns regulators that antitrust breakup will weaken their ability to compete against China in the AI arms race.
Supreme Court rules today on LGBTQ+, and the First Amendment. Tesla earnings report also drops today, and people are mad. And RFK knocks food die out of the U.S. food supply.
Drew, BTC, gold, and the Dow are up. But the Dow's also on track for its worst April since the Great Depression. So I hope that you're not checking your portfolio very often. No, no, I am.
I'm a holder. I'm a holder, at least when it comes to the major indexes. Okay, Dow up about 3%. NASDAQ, S&P at the time of this recording all average about 3%.
To your point, we're getting a lot of news that they've been the lowest since the Great Depression, biggest swing since the recession. A lot of these different attributes were inter-day movement. So in one day, they got 5%. In one day, they got 5%.
But in the grand scheme of things, we're about flat from year over year. Yes, but I have to say that my favorite stat about the stock market right now is that it has 11 times had a drop of more than 1,000 points in a single day, and four of them have been in April, or have been since Trump came into office. I forget which is true. But definitely, I think since his Freedom Day, Liberation Day, whatever it was.
So it's had an effect, Drew, when you've got 100 plus years where you don't see those kind of movements, and all of a sudden, in a 30-day period, you get four of your most volatile days ever. So you can certainly speak to the volatility. Now, traders will have you believe that volatility is some traders, I should be very clear, will have you believe that volatility is a good thing. You certainly see a lot of love for the volatility in BTC.
From our man, Michael Taylor, who has been trending a lot recently as he just continues to gobble up BTC. Speaking of which, BTC broke 90 again and is up 4% today. So that's a welcome sign to a live investor. BTC went as low as 60 a couple weeks ago.
So it being 90 is a healthy indicator. But to me, is this like a recession hedge? Because gold is also hitting a new high. So are people just taking it out of the stock market and kind of parking it?
What's your read of like the sentiment or where this money is moving? Well, the sentiment is definitely people are uncertain. There's so much uncertainty going on right now. And to overlook that, I think it would be a mistake.
I think the uncertainty is rightfully being read from Trump's what certainly to the outside world is erratic behavior. Whether you believe in 40 chess or Tesseract chess or whatever you want to call it, it is functionally erratic in that people are unable to predict what he's going to do next. Also, I think it would be unwise to think that we understand how the US-China dynamic is going to play out. I think that there is a wild amount of uncertainty in that.
And so we're all going to have to go through the ups and downs here. I think it will start to see some of this level out a little bit as people, A, grow used to the Hokey-Pokey tariffs. And as they see other countries either actually get on board or they start striking out to the point where people are like, yeah, I don't buy it. I don't think anything's going to happen.
You'll at least, even if we go down, you'll at least see some sense of I can predict the outcome return back to the market. And predictable, we're actually going to look at this as we look closer at China's economy. One of the notes that they make in the video that we're going to show is that it's okay to be down. You just want predictable.
You want to know like, where are we going from here? And when people are wildly uncertain, they pull back. And the pulling back can be more problematic than a steady state like, okay, at least we know where we're at. Now that has its limits.
You can drop so far. That's just all bad all the time. But I think that we will see a little bit of that stability return. You're not going to get the big stability until we find out what is actually going on with China.
I think that is a gigantic question mark that we're going to feature a lot today. I think it's important to remember how much spin is out there. I'll be sure to push on that even more when we talk about it. But this is not a guaranteed US victory, but it certainly isn't a guaranteed China victory either.
And we've got the two biggest economies playing a game of chicken. It's going to make people feel a lot of question marks. So we've got to get to the other side of that. Now, the fact that gold is going up, I think that is the thing that makes the most sense to me when you look at this, that gold is where you go in times of uncertainty.
And so maximum uncertainty, we see gold going up. Therefore, wow, it was unclear as to whether Bitcoin was also going to go up. And I heard somebody put a thesis that's pretty interesting that Bitcoin will lag gold, but go bigger. So we'll see if that ends up being true.
Gold is having a moment right now. And right now, as of the time that we're recording this, Bitcoin is really on a tear. But will it remain on that tear? I don't know.
So we're a long way from all-time highs. And I believe that gold is at an all-time high. Yeah, gold is at an all-time high peak for sure. Yeah.
So I don't, while optimistic people will tell you that BTC is going to do the exact same thing, I don't know if we have a reason to believe that. So we'll see. But I've been surprised at how correlated Bitcoin had been until today's move with the stock market. As the stock market goes down, Bitcoin goes down.
As the stock market goes up, Bitcoin goes up. So that to me says that what people are leaning on is the volatility of it. They're treating it as a risk on asset. They're not treating it as the inflation hedge that I'm personally treating it as.
That's also why you hear me wanting for the day when Bitcoin will be a boring asset like gold, where you're not seeing these huge volatile moves. I get that that's not popular. But for me, I want a place that I can go to protect myself from inflation. I don't need another risk on asset.
So we'll see. I get that that has to do with my unique financial position and does not represent why I'm sure a lot of people love Bitcoin. But nonetheless, it's true for me. You brought up earlier about us going to deep dive in the Chinese economy.
This is a video from the China Observer, which gives us the other side of this tariff war. On the backs of news, we heard that China is telling other countries not to do trade deals with the US. This kind of uncovers what China is trying to block and how these long-term tariffs can impact their economy. Before you hit play, it is very important that everybody understand, one, that every word out of anybody's mouth, mine included, is framed.
Now, it may be framed as accurately as the person is able to get it, but everybody has a frame of reference. And they're going to show you the world through that frame of reference. So please understand that, intentionally or not, this is spin. And also, because this fits my narrative so well, I'm skeptical.
But I will admit, this does a very good job of outlining the risks on China's side of being in a protracted trade war with the US. Now, this is very much, this feels like it's coming from a US lens more than this is how people in China would see this moment. So with all of that on the table, take a look. Every day, I wake up to an empty assembly line, an empty workshop, and rusty machines.
By the end of the day, we barely manage to make a few pairs of shoes. Even the quality checks are finishing early. We can't even cut a few pieces of fabric with the mold every day. And there's a mountain of unsolved stock piling up.
So we've talked about this before, but it's incredibly important for people to understand not only are we either first or second in GDP, depending on who you ask and how they count it, but it's us in China. We're at the tippy top. And the fact that some people can credibly say that China is bigger and some people credibly say the US is bigger tells you that we're peers, roughly. The important thing, though, is that the way that we account for our GDP is that we buy a lot of stuff.
The way that China accounts for their GDP is they sell a lot of stuff. So you can imagine, in a trade war, people that are buying things, they say, yeah, we're not going to buy. These, call them luxury goods or non-essentials, you're theoretically in a much stronger position, meaning your GDP can lower and it not feel as much like it's going down. You don't get to buy as many cool things, but as long as you're still able to get your groceries, you're still able to get energy at a reasonable cost, able to keep a roof over your head, et cetera, et cetera, your life isn't going to be impacted as much as people who are selling.
And that's basically what they're demonstrating here is you've got factories now just sitting on their hands because the tariffs are so high that American companies are like, oh, we need to see how this plays out before we put in too many more orders. At the Shanghai port, routes to the US are nearly shut down, with capacity dropping by 40% and bookings plummeting by 63.5%. At Wu-Hu's Pongitian Anchorage, there are ships everywhere with no place to go. Meanwhile, the UN is depreciating quickly, falling nearly 10% against the euro in just one month, and the financial market is unstable.
The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that if US President Trump raises tariffs by 60%, China's GDP growth will lose 2.5 percentage points between 2025 and 2027. If your growth rate, I think China is somewhere around the 5% mark right now, which is amazing everybody in America would kill for that, dropping by two and a half points would basically cut their economy in half. So take that with a grain of salt, maybe it doesn't drop that much, maybe China's GDP is a little bit higher, people, I watched the whole breakdown on how China has found themselves in a situation where it's impossible even for them to get an accurate assessment of what their GDP actually is because the Chinese communist system creates an incentive to lie. And so once you start lying, it's like impossible to stop because you can't be like, oh, let's say you faked, we're up a percentage point three years ago.
Well, what are you going to do next year? So if they know they've got to be up by a percentage point to impress somebody, then each year, how far does it drift now? It's not going to go up by that much. Every year, it would just be too obvious too quickly.
But the incentive anyway is to upward, there's upward pressure. China's admitted this themselves. They understand that this is something that's difficult to take at the word of the different people that are in charge of their region. But there are ways to get relatively close.
So 5% is probably not ridiculously far off. Let's break it down with Lululemon Yoga Pants. They sell in the US for $118, but the Chinese factory only gets $6. That is a really interesting point that when you recognize that most of the companies that are buying in any sort of significant quantity are public companies, so there's a lot of pressure on them to be able to communicate to Wall Street, this is what we think our earnings are going to be.
And so they'll take a hit if they say, listen, the prices have changed, this is now what they are, if it's worse, because people are going to say, okay, you're not going to be as profitable next quarter. However, the thing that becomes hard for them is when they don't know what their prices are going to be fluctuating wildly, because they're not going to be able to communicate clearly to the street, Wall Street. Wall Street isn't going to know exactly how to rate them, how to express in dollar terms the level of risk, and so it's always risk in return. And given that, companies would rather pivot and reposition themselves somewhere else away from China that's more stable, because at least then they can communicate.
And that one thing is stabilized, they can decide if they want to go back. But the lack of stability is in and of itself a problem. So temporary or otherwise, obviously temporary is better, but temporary or otherwise, when you have that kind of uncertainty, this is why you see the volatility in the markets. So it's better for a company to go to Vietnam or India to a place that's not getting change in tariffs.
So, and this is part of the problem. This is one of the big complaints about the way that Trump is doing this, is he's doing it everywhere. And so even if Vietnam doesn't have the kind of predictable rate that they can say, hey, cool, it's up, but this is what it is. Now, they're less likely to be as volatile as China, which is why I think they're about to talk about this, why different companies are pivoting to different countries.
Better that than the place that you know is going to be peaked uncertainty for the longest period of time is China. The trend of decoupling from China isn't something that depreciating the yuan can stop. Lululemon has already moved 15% of its production to Vietnam. Nike has reduced its procurement from China from 35% to 18%.
Apple's production capacity in India has doubled. Major retailers are setting a cap on single country sourcing at no more than 30% and require a six-month stockpile in the U.S.-Mexico region. The large orders that Chinese factories rely on for survival are being slashed. Amazon has directly asked suppliers for non-China supply chain certification in 2024, and the rejection rate for Chinese sellers has surged by 80%.
Walmart and Costco are building new warehouses in Mexico, and their procurement from China has dropped by over 20% in the first quarter. The trend of depreciation has already started. Since October 2024, the offshore yuan exchange rate has repeatedly broken the 7.3 mark, reaching a low of 7.36. It's important to understand the U.S.
for sure, and I'm sure international markets care as well, about when a country manipulates their currency by devaluing it through typically the printing of money, and so what China is being credibly accused of, in my opinion, is manipulating their currency to make sure that their exports are cheap, so you want to devalue the yuan if you want to have strong exports, so that would be like, oh my god, this stuff from China is really cheap, because my dollar is strong compared to the yuan, but we've sort of come to this agreement between the U.S. and China that they're going to hold their currency at 7 to 1. Now, obviously, there's going to be fluctuation, but the U.S. starts to complain vociferously.
Once you hit 7.2, to give people a little bit of historicals, August 2019, the yuan fell past the 7 to 1 mark, and it just went to 7.03 to 1 U.S. dollars, and the U.S. Treasury, at that point, going to 0.03, the U.S. Treasury officially labeled China as a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994.
Now, Trump was president then, so take it with a grain of salt. He's aggressive towards China, but in 2022 and through 2024, the yuan went to 7.3, and right now we're like 7.31, I think, and so you're hearing more and more criticism, my understanding is from both the Biden administration and the Trump administration, towards China for being a currency manipulator, and so if we were originally complaining at 7.03, and we're now at 7.3, you can imagine that's going to be the next play, and so China has that tool in their toolkit. They can depreciate their currency. It's not like anybody can stop them, but I think, if I'm not mistaken, what it would do is give Trump the ability to use, like, there's an act, I'm forgetting what it is, but there's an act that would let them go, ah, these guys are currency manipulators, and so we can apply secondary sanctions on them, meaning we punish people who do business with them, and so that's where you get into potentially doing some pretty wicked damage to the Chinese economy.
Now, the way that they're presenting this is very one-sided in that you're not hearing how is China going to punch back. Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face, and so China's going to counter all of this every step of the way, and there was a clip from Elon yesterday that I thought was really insightful, and he said, China is full of brilliant, motivated engineers, so expect them to make incredible things, and I'll say that holds true for monetary policy as well. China is full of brilliant people, just as the U.S. is, and they have a lot more people, so if a percentage of brilliance holds from one country to the next, they're just raw number going to have more brilliant people than we are, and don't expect them to not have an answer.
Yeah, this is the trade war. It goes tip or tip. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after the short break from our sponsors.
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HSA, FSA, tax savings vary. All right, we're back. Let's get into it. The depreciation of the U.N.
is ineffective and the real issue China faces is not just the U.S. tariff war but a global blockade network formed by over 70 countries. This is no longer a trade war. It's a declaration of the new cold war.
In the semiconductor field, the Netherlands will expand its span on selling lithography machines to China, including DUV machines, effectively halting China's production of chips below 28 nanometers. Japan is following suit by banning ASML's exports to China and the U.S. is offering 5.4 billion U.S. dollars in subsidies, creating a three-way partnership that aims to decouple Beijing from the global semiconductor supply chain.
Without chips, China can't compete globally. So that might be the most egregious one where they're not presenting the Chinese side of this. So China, to my understanding, that they plan to bring on ultra-sophisticated, I think on par with what is happening in Taiwan with the really sophisticated chips. They're bringing on their own manufacturing in mainland China.
So again, that's a counterpunch they've been working on for a while. So that is not somewhere that I would bet against China. If you remove all this stuff, you might slow them down and maybe that is advantageous. Because honestly, at this point, they have developed the ability to manufacture these chips.
And so now, about all you can do is continue to delay them until they're able to bring that online and get up to a production capacity that will let them meet their own needs. But again, they have counterpunches. Under the U.S. IRA policy, its battery companies still rely heavily on China for critical materials like graphite.
With over 80% dependence, companies like LG Energy Solutions must establish non-China supply chains by 2027, pushing Chinese companies into becoming mere technology contractors. The European Union has also raised carbon tariffs to 15%, imposing an additional 945 euro per ton tariff on Chinese steel, effectively excluding China from the market. In Iran, pro-American factions are rising. Iranian president, Massoud Prudistian's faction, advocates for restarting nuclear negotiations, creating a behind-the-scenes struggle with Ayatollah Khamenei's hard-line policies.
China's $400 billion investment in Iran may be at risk of going to waste. North Korea, despite claiming a 3.1% growth, has a GDP of only $30 billion, which is less than the GDP of a single Chinese county. As a strategic buffer zone, its economic support is limited. According to IMF data, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict started, trade between geopolitical blocs has dropped by 12%, and investment has decreased by 20%.
This multilayered decoupling has surpassed the trade war and formed a Cold War-style parallel system. China's adversary is not only the United States, but the entire Western bloc. Washington think tanks and policy circles generally believe that keeping China trapped in the middle-income trap is the ideal outcome for the United States. With a per-capital income stagnating at $15,000, China lacks the ability to challenge America's global leadership while avoiding complete collapse that would cause global turmoil.
If they can pull it off. But that's going to be tough, man. Corralling China with the kind of momentum that they have now is not a foregone conclusion, in my mind. There are dangers to our own economy, obviously, as we see with the stock market.
There are dangers to inflation, what people will call inflation, the rising prices of all the things we get from a high-tariff country. I've drawn the distinction many times. People can go look up what I mean by that. So we still have to play this game very, very carefully.
I don't want even in my own mind to take on board everything that's being said in this as if, like, oh, this house is going to play out. Yay, we're fine. This is still something that has to be done with a ton of diplomacy. We'll see now.
What do you think is some of those counterpunches that China might be throwing out? Because, you know, according to this video, the currency is being manipulated, the warehouses are empty, they're finding external pressures with their trade partners. But to our point, China has said time and time again, we'll fight to the very end. So I think there is some things in their back pocket that they are sitting on.
What are some things that might have been left out of this video? Well, so the biggest one is the fact that they're going to be able... Technology, I think, is the single most important point of contact in all of this. That the battle for AI is the battle in the Cold War between the U.S.
and China. That will be able to keep them from getting access to their ships when they're already building their own manufacturing capabilities. When you look at the fact that there's, I don't think, anybody better in the world at showing how rapidly they can increase the efficiencies of manufacturing. So I won't say that they beat everybody on high manufacturing.
Obviously, the semiconductor industry is not in mainland China. But I have a feeling, given how often they'll look at what other countries are doing and then do it better at scale, they're not the people to bet against being able to bring up their own chip manufacturing capabilities. So that's one. Two, I have a feeling, I don't know what their exact debt-to-GDP ratio is, but I think it's better than the U.S.'s, which means that they have a lot of reserve currency, but they are a very powerful economy that people don't want to lose access to.
So I think that they're going to be able to build some allies. I don't know how many they're going to get. Obviously, if the U.S., if all of North America, so Canada, the U.S., Mexico, and Europe all come together, okay, then it's game over for China. I think that they're really going to struggle to grow in the way that they could grow if they had reached beyond just Asia.
I just don't know how locks that we're going to move in, given how adversarial Trump has been to his allies. So we'll see. I think there are realities to be faced, which is I'm going to place a bet that Europe is far more likely to side with the U.S. and therefore will, grumbling or not, that Canada is far more likely to partner with the U.S.
rumbling or not, Mexico, same thing, that I like to think that Western countries have their eyes open enough to understand that if you have to be partners with somebody, being partners with the U.S. when you disagree with them is a better place to be than being partners with China when they disagree with you. We'll see. That's all going to play out.
But that is definitely my Western sensibilities coming into play. So like you said, we'll see. This is the longest game of chicken on a public stage that we've seen played out. So now I just want to see who...
The thing we don't want to lose side of is we've probably been at this for like a month. So it's just the living day-to-day life with uncertainties. It feels like it's going on forever. This is why people buy high and sell low against the only piece of advice you need in investing.
Buy low and sell high. The reason that people can't do it is a day feels interminably long when you're worried that you may have lost everything or that you may end up looking like a fool. And so people panic. And a month can seem interminable.
And that's why something you said at the top of the show is important for people to remember. You can hear a lot of noise about the Dow Jones average, but it's where it was almost exactly a year ago. And so, yeah, we've had these huge swings. But when you zoom out, it's like, we're flat.
Well, in Supreme Court news, they have a simple question to debate on Tuesday. Do parents of public school children have a constitutional right to opt out their kids from classroom lessons involving storybooks that feature LGBTQ themes or characters? The Supreme Court will tackle the question today in a closely watched First Amendment case. What say you about this decision from the Supreme Court?
What do you think it rightly falls? I'll be very interested to see what they say. Obviously, their read on the Constitution is far better than mine, but I have a very strong feeling on this one, which is that the state does not own your children. Parents own, it's a terrible word, but I don't have a better one.
Children belong to their parents, not to the state. And if a parent says, I do not want my child involved in that book, then they shouldn't be involved in that book. Flip it. If there was a book that was all about that the only moral way to live your life is a man and a woman to be married and raise kids, if your parents, gay parents have come together and you're raising a child, I would get what you'd be like, should parents have the right to opt their child out of being presented with that book?
And to me, the punchline is absolutely. Yeah, a group of parents from Montgomery County, Maryland, claim constitutional protections for religious exercise means that they have opportunities to exempt their kids from that instruction on gender or sexuality that may count to their teachings of faith. I can't believe this guy rejected, rejected, rejected, so that it made it all the way to the Supreme Court. That is insane.
To me, it's just like, yeah, obviously, they're your kids. Dude, as a non-parent, I feel like I'm more inflamed about this stuff. When California passed a law that they could hide from you, that your child wanted to be called a different name in school, I was like, dude, if I had kids, hard pass, I'd be gone. Out of the school system, for sure.
Possibly out of California. There's something that bothers me very deeply. So, yeah, children do not belong to the state. And one of the parents who called up, he has now homeschooled his kid to stop, quote-unquote, indoctrination.
I mean, when you flip it, it makes a lot of sense to me. Like, gay parents shouldn't be subject to their child being forced on, hetero is the way to go, this is how you live your life. I think they would have the same reaction that these religious parents are having to, LGBTQ ideals being put on kids. So, I understand.
Maybe we just don't talk about sexuality to kids. Maybe we just, when I was growing up, it was sex ed in 11th grade, maybe 8th grade, depending on where you went. That's a pretty big swing. Yeah, but I mean, like, maybe that is what it should be.
It should be a home thing. Back in the day, parents could certainly opt their kids out of sex ed in my school, which seems completely appropriate. If parents don't want you on that, then they should be able to do that. I am almost as shocked as I was today during the live that 60% of the community would rather die than run ads.
Long story, Chad, you'd have to go back and check it out live. Oh, my God. I can't believe that this is controversial. Can you channel it as a parent?
I'm not going to lie. At first, I was like, well, that's an exclusion. I thought it was a book-bending thing, too. But as soon as you flipped it and kind of posed that question, I'm like, well, yeah, if you don't agree, tell your kids to opt out.
Have them go sit in the cafeteria, have them go sit in the library. Whatever they need to do to get out of that, you should have that ability, too. I'm not opposed to that for any idea or anything. But I also talk to my kid a lot, and I put values on them.
So I may have a different view than the school is always right, and the state should tell their kids. Maybe there are people that feel that way, but it's not me. We are all indoctrinating everybody all the time. Like, 100%.
The dad is indoctrinating his child. So the question becomes not, should kids be indoctrinated? They're going to be. A culture.
Parents. They are agents of indoctrination. That's what they do. And so the question becomes, who should have the right to indoctrinate your children?
The parents or the government? I just can't even believe that this is a question. So anyway, like I said, I am perfectly willing to abide by what the Supreme Court decides. That's the whole point.
But this one, I'll be very vocal if they say that you don't have the right. I would obviously read the whole document, the whole report, make sure that I'm not getting something wrong here. But ooh, buddy, that's nuts. In business news, Google says the DOJ's proposal to break them up will be harmful in the global race with China.
So for some context, Google's ad business, including Chrome and their Android units, were labeled a monopoly, and they were then effectively ordered to be broken up by a DOJ representative. However, their counterclaim is the DOJ's proposal would hamstring how we develop AI and have a government-appointed committee regulate the design and development of our products. That would be holding back American innovation at a critical juncture. We're in a fiercely competitive global race with China for the next generation of technology leadership, and Google's at the forefront of American companies making scientific and technological breakthroughs.
Now, I've heard you bring that drum about how we need to beat China in the AI race. Should there be exceptions for monopoly hearing certain things until that AI space is materialized? Should there be some type of Manhattan Project exception for Google, open AI, Microsoft, until we win the AI war, or should... I would certainly want Google to be able to make its best case.
There's no doubt about that, because depending on what parts of their business they are going to force them to lop off, I could see them not having access to enough data to train the models well enough to make the advances that we as a nation want to make. So that I get. That could be a very real argument. Now, at the same time, these guys have a financial incentive to also convince them of that, regulatory bodies to remember you're not as close to this problem as they are, and then I would also remind the companies that when you get into monopolies, it ends up being bad for the consumer, and so we have antitrust laws for a reason.
Those antitrust laws tend to work out better for the consumer, but it's not a free pass, and so this has to be done well. This has to be done with the scalpel. You've got to make sure that you're looking at the downstream consequences, and we are at a moment, for better or worse, when we are in a cold war with a rival power at a time where the technology, the implications of winning the technological race couldn't be bigger, and so, yeah, I would be very thoughtful. Now, the good news is, I don't think anybody has monopoly on AI, so open AI is doing a bang-up job without the kind of access to data that Google has.
You've got Elon Musk, who's done a phenomenal job of putting himself in a position to collect ungodly amounts of data between what's going on in X and the self-driving cars. That's the part I don't think people think about is how much data they're drinking in about behaviors, movements, location data, mapping the world. It's crazy. So it's probably not the end of the world if the regulators make a bad decision on Google and block something that slows them down a little bit, but honestly, if I could peer inside of it and see, ooh, this really would help us win the AI race, it's worth it.
You want to win the AI race, but I don't say that lightly because consumer protections from monopolies is a good thing. You want competition. It has all kinds of knock-on effects, including oftentimes, you'll see at least of the companies when they split them up are well-run. You'll see an increase in share price.
You'll see more competitiveness with the individualized products because now they can't just be a part of the portfolio like they've really got to stand on their own, and so people really start trying to make that thing sing. So it's tough. AI matters tremendously. There's enough other players in the game that I'm not going to lose sleep over this.
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Let's get into it. In other AI news, Lovable drops an app that claims all you have to do is type and build an app. Idea to app in seconds. It's taken by coding to a whole new level.
You use Lovable. You're talking about this weekend, right? Yeah, so this one, for anybody that's been at the headline level of AI, this is going to be like, yeah, obviously, we've been able to do this for a long time. So I won't say, so I'm not a coder.
Let me be very clear. We have a coder in-house who is endlessly frustrated by vibe coding apps and web pages. He's endlessly frustrated that you just run into these problems, that he's like, is it really speaking up? I don't know.
But somebody that has on the periphery been trying all of these things, this was the first time where I was got smacked, where I was like, man, I've hit dead ends before, very early in the process. To the point where I was like, meh, like if you're not a coder like this, it just doesn't do anything interesting. You're far better off spending your time going and finding an app that already exists that does that thing rather than trying to do it yourself. And then I was trying to do my anime and manga tracking.
And there's an anime that I like a lot called Devil May Cry by Adi Shankar. the way this guy's unbelievable and he's american and so ironically i think the most of his animation is done out of south korea but they're a purist about anime has to be from japan and so the app that i use to track doesn't include devil make cry anyway i found that so offensive that i'm like i'm gonna make my own and so i went and started using firebase which is google's it got frustrated very fast i was like let me try lovable i've been hearing about it dropped into lovable and i was like holy lord it was i got so much farther now i still ended up in a death loop of like i was trying to change it just could not make the change it would every time it would make the change it would break something it kept breaking like you can either have a or b you can't have a and b like as soon as i would fix a b would break as soon as i would fix b a would break again back and forth back and forth back so it's like okay if i were a coder this one i would just go in and see the exact because you can tell me what the problem was but i'm not gonna go into code uh so anyway this felt like a huge leap forward people will forgive me if they're far more familiar and um but i tried uh cloud 3.7 i've tried firebase i've tried lovable i think i tried one other one and all of them i just will dead end really like firebase i dead ended so early uh and lovable was able to recommend an api integrate the api start pulling the information i didn't make me prompt it for like hey populate this with dummy data it just did all of that so i literally get the exact same copy and paste prompt from what i'd done in firebase moved it over to lovable and the results were it was very impressive so look these things are all gonna go back and forth they're all gonna be leapfrogging each other but that one felt exciting that was the first time where i as a complete non-coder was like oh this isn't just hype like there's really something here and the anthropic ceo said by the end of this year he believes that basically 99 of all coding will be done with ai that was the first time i was like i don't know about the next seven months but bro the next 12 like oh it's it's moving fast it almost reminds me how you described with writing like writing with chat gpt is like having like the most efficient writer's room possible i feel like that's probably what coders feel like with like chat gpt or some of these ai apps like i know how to build it through the let me get into my creative do the minutiae you know what i mean like you you have just nailed it because i'm not a coder that very self-evident statement of truth you just made did not occur to me uh that's exactly right this is where writing is where i cannot believe how much faster i write now it's at least i were running the math it's at least twice as fast it might be four times as fast where it's just unbelievable because i spent 18 months something like that as a professional screenwriter i was just paid to write uh and it would take me about eight months to get a first draft of a well thought out screenplay from like i need an idea to here is the draft uh i'm convinced now that i could do that for sure in four months and that's probably with rewriting so it's dramatic but there is a handoff where if i just say write me this scene it'll be super cheesy and so i do all the brainstorming all the problem solving with ai which is unbelievably good at uh and then you still have to go in and like scripts but then if you're like oh there's something not right what's not right you feed it to the ai it's very insightful it's just not good at execution uh and in lovable's defense it did keep telling me the problem's right here the problem's right here and i was just like i'm not gonna go fix it you need to fix it uh and interesting no so we'll look forward to see that um hhs secretary rfk is today announcing a plan to remove artificial food dyes from the american food supply with fda i know rfk is controversial in a lot of areas to me this seems like a slam dunk win i don't know if you got anything on this i mean look at a high level i'm always tense when the government thinks they know better uh because when we started quest they were like you shouldn't have fat in food like uh what so that was absurd but we were all in a loop of uh that's the problem and that ended up not being true however when you look at our food supply something is going wrong there's either environmental toxins or something that we're putting in our body given that the vast majority of the things you put in your body are food uh the food matters and given other countries that don't have quite our obesity epidemic and quite our chronic health burden they don't allow some of those things in food i'm here for taking a more conservative stance now if you were trying to ban a macro nutrient then i would be like hold the phone here like you're getting way out of your seas on this but saying we're not going to do color dye yeah let's run the experiment let's see what happens i think there are probably more things like that that are like yeah they're not really doing anything additive it's worth at least checking to see like how does this play out if we take this out of the food supply uh so i'm i'm gonna give him a lot of dude i think he's very sincere um i believe history may prove this wrong but i believe that he really wants to help he really wants to do good and he's really willing to look at what the data says uh given that he's starting conservative with something like food diet which is not a nutritional value thing it just makes it look more appealing um yeah let's give it a shot we'll see what happens and then last but not least summer's right around the corner so uh fellas next time your girlfriend wife tells you she's going to a girls night out without you um i have a list of questions for you to ask her just say this doesn't work for me this doesn't work for me because i don't want my girlfriend slash future wife half naked out with a bunch of other women getting hit on by men all night and i would also ask you doll if you're with me and taffy why do you feel the need to go out and get all these attention from other men why because that's why she's doing it no she's doing it for herself and her girl really then why aren't they sitting in the house why did they get all dressed up in the spirits and sequins and all that stuff and buy some alcohol if they want to be tipsy and go sit in somebody's house and dance with a big disco ball on the ceiling because there's no other guys there because they're lying to you because the whole point is to go out and to get hit on by other men because you're not enough she's not that into you you are like okay but she also wants all the attention from everyone else bottom line is girls night out is a disaster it's a hot mess it's not well intentioned it's all bad things is a girls night out all bad things definitely not for some people sure it's uh it's an excuse to go not only get male attention but to cash in on some of that male attention for sure um i'm gonna i'm gonna take this conversation to an evolutionary place and let's see where we get because i think that she's asking very surface level questions and the real questions to ask are and i promise this is all gonna come back around um why is and if you have kids now's the time to check them out of the car or wherever you are uh why is the penis shape the way that it's shaped um why is the clitoris on the outside why do if men have been away from the woman why do they um deposit more semen upon having sex uh why is it that women are vocal during sex um when you really look at the shape of the penis it should terrify you for what our ancestry uh was like because it i don't know how hard to go in the pain uh it's shaped like a shovel to scoop things out and you can imagine what it's trying to get rid of which means that on an evolutionary timescale there was so much what's known as sperm competition meaning the woman had viable sperm in her at the same time before the egg was fertilized so often that the penis most likely to scoop out what was there before it won like it actually changed the shape now i'm not saying at the human level i'm saying this is how you come up through the animal kingdom now it ends with that final bit of uh fine tuning at the human level um that men ejaculate more volume when they've been away uh and fear that their woman has been around other men uh the assumption is you've had sex with other men and i've got to outcompete that sperm and so that means that was an evolutionary strategy that was rewarded so meaning it actually mattered the guys that did that had the guys with the most shovel-y shape and that were depositing the most sperm when they've been away from their woman they won dude they won and it echoed back and then why is the remember i am gonna make all this out up to girls tonight uh and why is the couturus on the outside if you look at our closest genetic relative it's the bonobo and the bonobo live in societies where they use touching of the genitals as ways to um like overcome friction in societies if you got in a fight if two women get in a fight or whatever then they'll go up and they'll touch each other on the genitals as an apology as a way to just be like girl i'm with you uh literally and i think the only thing that makes sense because that thing should be a button on the inside can we agree so it's like the only thing from an evolutionary standpoint if it was just about pregnancy that should be on the inside and uh your goal as a man would be to bing bing bing and just like do the things that maximize your likelihood of getting them pregnant yeah so uh but it's not it's on the outside and i think that's because it works at a minimum dual duty and uh yeah i find that utterly fascinating now for people that know the anatomy of the couturus it's actually not just on the outside it's also on the inside it wraps around uh the vaginal canal but anybody that's been with a woman uh can tell you right now that the bit on the outside is the best bit true and it is the easiest yeah uh so i think that evolution has made women want to be the center of sexual attention that women are designed to attract the highest quality mate that they can attract that they just like men women run a dual strategy and uh when they're pregnant they prefer when you're on the pill or pregnant women will show a preference for men with softer features when they are ovulating they show a preference or not on the pill they show a preference for men with more traditionally masculine features so that tells you i'm looking for the highest quality genetic stock that i get at one part of my cycle and i'm looking for a man that can help me take care of the child at another point in my cycle and i think it wise for people to embrace the reality uh so that you don't have a deranged relationship my wife's gonna drive herself crazy if she doesn't think i'm gonna find other women attractive men are meant to seek sexual variety now to honor my marriage and my desire to bond with one woman i'm not going to actually pursue other women but i don't want her driving herself crazy thinking that i only have eyes for you like if she looks over and i'm looking at somebody's ass she should be like oh my god he doesn't love me like she even said uh you're not enough that's not why a woman wants it not why all women uh want to go to the girls night out it is that evolution has said hey being the center of sexual attention uh is a great trade-off so men want to focus on you you want to be focused on and i'm well aware they only want to be focused on men that they find desirable i get that but nonetheless they have to have that impulse in order to do the dance of um i want to be attracted to you so that you will pursue me so i can put you through your paces so i can figure out if you're gonna be the right person to meet with either from a physiological standpoint or from long-term access to uh resources which is why women both often will have a type i want a guy who's tall and strong i don't think anybody's gonna trip out hearing that uh but also i want a guy that makes me laugh laughter humor is a sign of intelligence intelligence is a proxy for you'll be able to get access to resources so you've got this intricate dance and evolution has given women a positive feedback loop when they put themselves at the center of that sexual attention they're picky they're choosy obviously women are sexual gatekeepers but that is part of what's going on in the desire to go out and have that male attention there's just an algorithm running in their brain that makes that feel really wonderful now they're humans they have a prefrontal cortex which means they do not have to give in to whatever impulses they have my wife has gone on plenty of girls nights i don't get weird about it because i have so much trust with my wife and yes people should have rules uh yes people should articulate very clearly what they consider acceptable and not acceptable yes people should work on their relationship to make sure that the other person feels not intellectually understands but feels in their bones the level of commitment that you have to them into the relationship i use that word very intentionally and i think when you put all of that together along with yeah some women uh they feel neglected some women probably don't um they're leaning more towards promiscuity and they really are going behind your back and they really are doing things you would be more of course there's all that just as there are guys that are unfaithful and they cheat and all that uh what i would want for people is to understand that we have these evolutionary impulses there's a reason we are the way that we are but we have a prefrontal cortex for a reason engage that um focus on pair bonding like you were giving me a jokingly hard time that after the long weekend i said hey did you deepen your romance uh to people that i knew were in relationships and i really meant that like i take time on long weekends like that to make sure that i'm investing heavily in my marriage nothing has to reap greater returns for me uh but that stuff doesn't happen by essence you have to do things to make sure that you guys are pair bonding and all of that uh and that will reap tremendous rewards despite the fact that the clitoris is on the outside despite the fact that the penis is shaped like a shovel uh all of that at the end of the day we can overcome that but to blind yourself to the complexities of the human experience i think is unmistaken while that clip is fun and funny uh i don't think it is accurate across all women that could conceivably be going out on a girls night well said well said it's perfect though that's all i got all right everybody if you're not already watching us live make sure you do it is tuesday thursday and friday at 6 a.m pacific time and here are some highlights from today's live it's interesting to tell my own story because i'll say uh nobody uh thought that i would be successful and my wife is always like mother fucker she was like i have always known that you were going to do something and nobody has put their lot more with you than me and she was like whenever you tell the story it's always that nobody believes in you and i'm like that's actually fair because as i have oft repeated to my wife i don't want to know who i would have become if i didn't meet her and that one is like when i just step back and go from the trust that i have in her from knowing that if i fall that she'll pick me up have you seen oh god i'm gonna get emotional let's go emotions emotions emotions emotions okay let's go let's do it do it do it i see it i see it let it happen let it happen man it's your own family on the internet oh fuck man this is a beautiful moment this is a beautiful moment oh chat loves it thank you chat thank you for showing support and showing up the hugs in the chat this is a tough moment it's a human emotion human moment yeah human moment man man some things are better left unsaid um okay take two hearts in the chat hearts in the chat all around you've seen michael j fox with his wife oh there she is hey baby you're gonna make this worse i was thinking about it i was like maybe we get this at least situation oh oh we're gonna shake that off uh so there's footage of michael j fox with his wife and on the red carpet he's shaking the shit obviously because of um parkinson's she's still with him god knows how many years later in sickness and in health man and that you want to talk about what i want for everybody that belief we romanticize love and all the joys and oh my god yeah um but it is really real when 10 years ago my gut just fell apart i couldn't stand up i could barely breathe he was ready to rush me to the hospital every time i would eat something i mean it was bad and in those moments how do you respond now sometimes i think initially it's kind of easy i'll show up for you let me do things a year in two years in it's a very different picture and he showed up for me every step that's what real love in sickness and health actually looks like um and he never once complained in fact i want to say it was at least two years but i don't exaggerate but it feels true for two years he didn't eat sugar because i couldn't now imagine guys it's his birthday and i'm like let's get you cake because i couldn't eat anything he's like no i don't want cake on my birthday i want to be able to eat what you can eat and we're in it together that's what freaking true is sickness and health it's like okay i'm coming back i'm sorry all right i love love so i love seeing that kind of stuff yeah i'm into it you were right to love love it is my second favorite holiday bird shit and potatoes these are facts dude it doesn't quite work like that but you uh soil gets rapidly depleted plants need nitrogen they cannot pull it out of the air they have to pull it out of the soil and the most efficient way to get it into the soil is through dung it doesn't go away so it just stacks and stacks and stacks so you get these islands that like are uninhabitable you can't even go on them the smell of the nitrogen is or the ammonia i guess is so strong that people can't bear to go near but you can hire people or back in the day enslave them hey always a good time and you force them on the island you mine the stuff and there were literal wars is probably an exaggeration but people were conquering these islands taking them away from each other because once you had that you could ship it to other countries and allow them to grow better crops and what they found was in terms of a complete item that's easy to grow potatoes were like the jam if you had potatoes and milk you were good who would guess so like around the world potatoes start in like some small place i don't remember for the south america but i think it was potatoes start in like the andes and then they just find their way to everywhere around the world because they could transport the poo and they could transport the seeds for the potatoes and we could literally feed more people and so suddenly nations that had been stagnant from a population standpoint for god knows how long all of a sudden we get this huge population explosion poop potatoes thank you poo poop potatoes like it's crazy why is the cotaurus on the outside the only answer that makes any sense is that it can be touched with a hand and at that point it's like well then who's that access for and it soothes all the concerns and they're able to get to the other side of it and so as a guy the number of times where i've been like what is that doing on the outside like that is the craziest shit i've ever seen in my fucking life but that makes me so absurd worried about the other way because male pleasure zones are inside the penis so bro have you ever touched your penis that thing's pretty amazing and it's designed to go inside so from a i want to get a person pregnant standpoint no no but i mean the male g slot is inside the anus uh sure but here's the thing i've never found myself going you know what would make this finally fun outside evolution and i know they're now on this side i get how much context matters i really do but as somebody who's had a prostate exam i wasn't like well this is fun context matters yeah i wasn't like well i've got a new context i'd like to introduce this to uh so yeah i'm gonna say i'm that if we're gonna talk about where the pleasure zones are but the head of the penis is pretty pleasure-y zoney so that one doesn't seem weird to me but yeah i don't i don't get it uh well so i have a hypothesis but if it isn't that then i'm like what's happening i'm not telling people to go outside booty hole broadcast it i'm just saying it would be better if you did i'm not saying that either you just cheers i hope you where the pleasure zones are duct tape closed if they're all right the chat yep all right everybody if you haven't already be sure to give us a five-star review it helps more than you know let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress you know what you need to do you need consistent nutrition we all do you need vitamins probiotics greens we all know that we should be doing more of it when your morning gets chaotic you skip it when you travel you skip it when your routine breaks everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day ag1 is designed to solve the execution problem one scoop eight ounces of water and you're done you're getting 75 plus ingredients vitamins and minerals pre and probiotics nutrient-dense superfoods everything that used to require six seven different supplements and 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