This TAM is just a snort of hopium

Hey friends 👋You know the pattern — founder shows up with a deck, flips to the TAM slide, and there it is: $53 billion… $67 billion… any enormous number with a B at the end. And everyone in the room nods like it means something.It usually doesn’t.This week JDM goes solo (Cameron’s out representing the ecosystem and cheering at a pitch competition — we’ll forgive him) to dig into one of his all-time founder pet peeves: the TAM.Not the concept — the lazy, hopium-laced, percentage-game version that shows up in almost every pitch deck. The one that mistakes the market your customers are in for the market your product is in. The one that picks 0.1% because it makes the math look reasonable, not because it means anything.From a Slack bot claiming a slice of the wrong pie, to a procurement platform that actually did the math (mostly), to an AI tutoring app that averaged its way to a $67B fantasy, JDM runs the conviction scale on three real TAM claims and calls out every shortcut along the way.For his lone frivolous thought, he recommends Ben McKenzie’s documentary Everyone Is Lying to You for Money — a deep dive into crypto with strong opinions and receipts to match.As always, thanks for listening.—JDM & CamTimestamps00:00 - Introduction02:15 - TAM: what the slide is supposed to answer (and doesn’t)05:30 - Scenario 1: The Slack status bot12:45 - Scenario 2: Food manufacturer procurement platform25:00 - Scenario 3: AI tutoring app for K-1240:00 - Frivolous Thoughts This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zerototraction.substack.com