Thomas Demmelhuber, Marius Bales, Kristin Diwan & Yasmine Farouk: SECURITY IN THE GULF: THE DANGER OF RIFTS AMONG MIDDLE POWERS AMID THE IRAN CRISIS

SECURITY IN THE GULF: THE DANGER OF RIFTS AMONG MIDDLE POWERS AMID THE IRAN CRISISThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) publicly reaffirms the principles of collective cooperation, however, as demonstrated in the Iran war, military defence is one of the areas which are far from integrated. During the last months the GCC witnessed a growing rift between once friendly rivals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The strategic divergences of these two Gulf monarchies carry serious implications not only for the Gulf but the wider MENA region and even stretch to Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. The differences span from economic competition, foreign policy priorities, and approaches to regional conflicts – including domestic challenges ahead. Will the Iran war deepen these rifts or even increase the chance of building collective security frameworks?With high level scholars and practitioners, we will examine the roots of this rift and assess its potential consequences and ways of deescalation.Marius Bales is a researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC), where he has worked since 2016. He studied Political Science and German Studies at the University of Trier and focuses on military technology, arms dynamics, and contemporary forms of warfare, particularly in conflict regions such as the Middle East.Yasmine Farouk is the Gulf and Arabian Pensinsula Project Director at International Crisis Group. She studied political science at Cairo University, Sciences Po Paris and was a fellow at Yale University. She previously worked at the office of the Egyptian prime minister after the 2011 revolution, supporting civil society participation in the national dialogue and constitutional processes. From 2016 to 2017, she was the director of research at the Cairo International Center for Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding, a think-tank and training centre affiliated with the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.Thomas Demmelhuber is a German political scientist specializing in the politics and societies of the Middle East. He is Professor and Chair of Politics and Society of the Middle East at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe in Natolin. He is also an author and editor of several academic publications, including the 2025 handbook Die Arabische Halbinsel: Geographie und Politik.Kristin Diwan is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Her current projects concern generational change, nationalism, and the evolution of Islamism in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Her analysis of Gulf affairs has appeared in many publications, among them Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, and The Washington Post. She was previously an assistant professor at the American University School of International Service and has held visiting scholar positions at the George Washington University and Georgetown University.Gudrun Harrer, Lecturer in Modern History and Politics of the Near and Middle East at the University of Vienna and the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna; former Senior Editor at Der Standard (until 2025).