Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20? Something Doesn't Add Up

Superintelligence when? This question is more urgent than ever as we hear competing timelines from Inflection AI, OpenAI and the leaders at the Center for AI Safety. This video not only covers the what was said, it offers some data on what superintelligence is projected to be capable of. I discuss things that can hasten those timelines (see the new Netflix doc, Top 1% for Creativity and the AI Natural Selection paper) or slow it down (ft. Yuval Noah Hariri, the new Jailbroken paper, and more). And I end on some reflections of what it might mean to interact with a superintelligence (ft Douglas Hofstadter).Introducing Superalignment: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignmentOdds of Success: https://twitter.com/janleike/with_replies?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EauthorMustafa Suleyman (Inflection AI) Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAxNkehgzEUInflection Supercomputer: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/startup-builds-supercomputer-with-22000-nvidias-h100-compute-gpus GPT 2030: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-likeCounterpoint: https://twitter.com/xuanalogue/status/1666765447054647297Creativity Test: https://www.umt.edu/news/2023/07/070523test.phpMMLU: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03300.pdfBoston Globe CAI: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/06/opinion/ai-safety-human-extinction-dan-hendrycks-cais/Yuval Noah Hariri Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/06/ai-firms-face-prison-creation-fake-humans-yuval-noah-harariJailbroken Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02483.pdfSuleyman Hallucination Tweet: https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1678072401760796672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EtweetKiller Robots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSzNOpr9cEAutomated Apple-picking: https://twitter.com/AiBreakfast/status/167782897121428275250 year Mortgages: https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-28e2-42d4-b241-0f215995f0d1Heypi: https://heypi.com/talkNatural Selection Favors AIs over Humans: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.16200.pdf#:~:text=Natural%20selection%20may%20be%20a,designs%20to%20be%20selected%20naturally.Gödel, Escher, Bach author Doug Hofstadter on the state of AI today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfXxzAVtdpU&t=1763shttps://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/