Tirzepatide Has Better Metabolics. So Why Doesn't It Win?

Your patient has type 2 diabetes, established cardiovascular disease, and has been on tirzepatide for two years. Their A1c is down, their weight is down, and their triglycerides are better than they've been in a decade. The question every clinician should be asking: is any of that metabolic improvement actuallytranslating into fewer heart attacks and strokes? SURPASS-CVOT is the first randomized cardiovascular outcomes trial for tirzepatide — and the answer is more complicated than the headlines suggest.In this episode we break down SURPASS-CVOT, a double-blind noninferiority trial comparing tirzepatide to dulaglutide in over 13,000 patients with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Tirzepatide was noninferior— meaning no worse than — dulaglutide on 3-point MACE (CV death, MI, stroke), but did not achieve superiority. Despite dramatically better A1c reduction, weight loss, and triglyceride lowering, the primary cardiovascular endpoint was essentially a tie. All-cause mortality did tell a different story, and that'swhere this paper gets interesting. We score this one a Castelli Coefficient of 7.5 / 10 — a well-designed trial that may not have taught us as much as we hoped.Key Findings●     Primary endpoint (3-pointMACE): HR 0.92 (95.3% CI 0.83–1.01) —noninferior (p=0.003), not superior (p=0.09)●     All-cause mortality: HR 0.84 (95% CI 0.75–0.94) — tirzepatide group 8.6% vs.dulaglutide 10.2% ★exploratory●     MACE-4 (+revascularization): HR 0.88 (95% CI0.81–0.96) — statistically significant●     Metabolic advantage —real, but didn't move the MACE needle: A1c−1.66% vs. −0.88%; weight −11.6% vs. −4.8%; triglycerides −24.2% vs. −10.2%●     GI adverse events: 42.5% with tirzepatide vs. 35.9% with dulaglutide — morenausea and diarrhea●     Generalizability caveat: Only 14.7% of patients enrolled in North America — the NAsubgroup HR was 1.01, the weakest of all regions Links & Resources●     Full paper: Nicholls SJ, et al. Cardiovascular Outcomes withTirzepatide versus Dulaglutide in Type 2 Diabetes. N Engl J Med2025;393:2409–20. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2505928●     REWIND trial (dulaglutideCV outcomes vs. placebo): Gerstein HC, etal. Lancet 2019;394:121–30●     EBM Primers —Noninferiority Trials Explained: Watch on@dispenseaswritten [https://youtu.be/SpeVLfGrvFk?si=dzK-6OHunFv5eT8J] AboutGregoryCastelli, PharmD, FCCP, BCPS, BC-ADM, CDCES Clinical Pharmacist | AssociateProfessor Produced by Dispense As Written, LLC 📺YouTube: @dispenseaswritten 📸 Instagram/TikTok: @gregcastellipharmd 🐦X/Twitter: @gregcastellirx 💼 LinkedIn: gregcastellipharmd 📧[email protected] Legal Disclaimer⚠ LEGAL DISCLAIMER — DO NOT MODIFYThe content in this video is produced by Dispense As Written, LLC for educational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice. The views expressed are those of Dispense As Written, LLC and do not represent the views of any affiliated academic institution, employer, or health system. This content is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Always consult a qualified healthcare professional for clinical decision-making. Dispense As Written, LLC has no pharmaceutical sponsorships and maintains full editorial independence.