TLPP: How to Spot Statistical BS w/ Aaron Brown

Aaron Brown is a quantitative analyst, risk manager, and author of the new book Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth from a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation. https://amzn.to/4frmg3n He's also about to debate gun control at the Soho Forum in August — and his preparation for that debate is a pretty good preview of what's in the book. Topics include: why out of 28,000 gun control studies, the RAND Corporation found only 20 that weren't statistically crippled; the smoking analogy and what it tells us about legislation that runs ahead of evidence; why gun laws burden legitimate owners and not criminals; why we have a crime problem, not a gun problem; The Lancet paper that claimed US aid saved 92 million lives; how to spot three red flags that tell you a statistic is BS; and Wonder Bread's motto "Helps build strong bodies 12 ways" — which nobody ever actually wrote down. Get the book → Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth from a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation https://amzn.to/4frmg3n TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 — Intro — Aaron Brown and Wrong Number 0:34 — The Soho Forum gun control debate — and who he's up against 3:45 — The proposition: abolish all restrictions on adult firearm ownership 4:48 — Lou on navigating gun laws across state lines (NJ → PA → NY) 7:25 — The wide cultural divide: Scranton airport vs. any other airport with guns 9:04 — RAND Corporation: of 28,000 gun control studies, only 20 weren't crippled by errors 10:04 — The smoking analogy — legislation running ahead of the evidence 12:15 — Gun control laws only burden legitimate owners — not criminals 12:43 — The Glock switch ban and the AR-15 — targeting the popular, not the dangerous 15:18 — "Trump is a fascist" — and you want him to take the guns? 15:42 — Stop calling it a gun problem. It's a crime problem. 17:47 — We can identify the 1% of kids likely to commit 20–30% of violent crime 19:31 — Genetic markers for violence — and why that's controversial 20:48 — The Nordic prison model — does it work, and could it work here? 22:09 — Immigration data: why lumping everyone together gets you bad answers 25:20 — Lou's joke about open borders (for immigrants like his dad, not his cousins) 25:39 — Aaron's Jewish smuggler ancestors — blocked from junk dealing by licensing laws 27:04 — Did US aid really save 92 million lives? The Lancet paper that can't add up 29:13 — They saved 114% of the people — including 46M in China, which gets no aid 31:22 — Most published research findings are false — and we've known since 2005 32:42 — DOGE cuts and the "millions are dead" narrative 36:15 — Three red flags that tell you a statistic is BS 39:18 — Wonder Bread's "12 ways" — nobody ever wrote them down 40:18 — Outro — Wrong Number and the Soho Forum debate Watch full episodes on YouTube → https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Vb53s4I0A&list=PLb5trMQQvT077-L1roE0iZyAgT4dD4EtJ Listen on Apple Podcasts → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lou-perez-podcast/id1535032081 Listen on Spotify → https://open.spotify.com/show/2KAtC7eFS3NHWMZp2UgMVU  Lou's book — That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore: https://amzn.to/3VhFa1r  TheLouPerez.com |  [email protected]  Newsletter: https://substack.com/@louperez #Statistics #Misinformation #GunControl #USAID #AaronBrown #WrongNumber #SohoForum #LouPerezPodcast #LionsOfLiberty #DataLiteracy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices