To Stay or Go: Factors Shaping Ukrainian Refugees’ Intentions Whether to Return to Ukraine

Despite the ongoing war and heavy destruction across Ukraine, some of the more than 6 million Ukrainians who fled after Russia’s invasion in February 2022 are already returning to Ukraine. As of August 2024, an estimated 1 million Ukrainians had returned to their country from abroad, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). While most visit briefly, to see family or tend to their property, others return with the intention of staying permanently. These actions raise questions for European and Ukrainian policymakers alike about the likely scale and drivers of future returns, and how to adapt their policies to prepare for these movements. For instance, do return intentions vary across host countries, and if so, how? What factors most influence Ukrainian refugees' intentions to return? What role does security in Ukraine play in shaping return decisions? Is more generous host-country support for refugees reducing intentions to return? Finally, what policy measures are necessary to support sustainable return or deeper integration in the host society? This webinar, resulting from a research collaboration between IOM and MPI Europe, explores how personal circumstances and host-country and home-country conditions shape refugees’ intentions to return or remain abroad.