Tony Awards 2026: What's Changed w/ Sam Eckmann

As the 2025/2026 barrels towards the finish line, Matt is joined by Breakdown fave Sam Eckmann (Gold Derby) to discuss how this year’s Tony race has changed. From a surprisingly thin Best Musical field to a hyper-competitive Play Revival race, they explore how industry sentiment, voter behavior, and late-season openings could reshape the narrative in the final stretch. If you think you know where the Tonys are headed… think again.Important LinksRevue-ing the 2025/2026 Season: Green Room 42 TixThe (Slightly Early) Tony Awards Show: Green Room 42 TixSam Eckmann: Gold DerbyBroadway Breakdown: DiscordBroadway Breakdown: SubstackGuest bioSam Eckmann is an awards expert and contributor at Gold Derby, where he covers Broadway, film, and television races with a sharp eye for trends and voter psychology. A frequent Tony Awards predictor, Sam brings both data-driven insight and deep theater knowledge to the Broadway Breakdown universe.Timestamps* 0:00 – Intro + framing the 2026 Tony race* 2:00 – Best Musical: a weak frontrunner year?* 6:00 – Why Two Strangers leads—but isn’t unbeatable* 9:00 – The “original score vs. jukebox” debate* 14:00 – Musical Revival showdown: Ragtime vs. Cats: The Jellicle Ball* 29:00 – Play Revival: the most competitive category of the season* 40:00 – Lead Actor (Play): crowded field, shifting frontrunners* 45:00 – Director (Musical): why this race is wide open* 50:00 – Will The Queen of Versailles still show up on nomination morning?* 1:00:00 – Can comedy win? The Titanique question* 1:08:00 – Lead Actress (Play): stacked, messy, unpredictable* 1:14:00 – Final predictions in flux + shows to watch before nominations* 1:18:00 – Closing thoughts + diva send-offListener discussion questions* In a year with no clear Best Musical juggernaut, should voters prioritize originality, impact, or long-term viability when choosing a winner?* Do you think Tony voters consciously avoid rewarding jukebox musicals—or is that narrative overstated?* Which category feels most unpredictable to you this season, and what would genuinely surprise you on nomination morning? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit bwaybreakdown.substack.com