Toronto’s Real Estate Market Is Tightening: Is the Bottom Finally Here?

Toronto Rents Rising, GTA Listings Falling: What “Tightening” Means for Your Underwriting   Addy Saeed and Ribhu Rampersad break down three data releases pointing to “tightening” conditions across Ontario: a July jobs report showing 75,000 new jobs and 6.4% unemployment alongside cooler wage growth (3% vs. 3.7%), which CIBC says supports a Bank of Canada hold through 2026 into early 2027; national rent growth for a fourth straight month with Toronto up 1.6% MoM in July, annual rents down just 0.6% and listings down ~6% YoY, while Ontario’s 0.6% monthly gain still sits with a 3.7% annual decline and wide sub-market dispersion; and TRREB’s July resale data with sales down 0.9% YoY, new listings down 17.8%, and HPI down 4.6% YoY but up MoM (SA), plus current financing benchmarks (BoC ~2.25%, prime ~4.5%, 5-year fixed ~6.09%) emphasizing underwriting to today’s rates, not anticipated cuts.   00:00 Markets Tightening Overview 00:22 Jobs Report Blowout 00:43 Rates On Hold Implications 01:09 Rental Demand Signals 02:28 National Rents Turning Up 02:57 Ontario Submarket Divergence 03:36 Seasonality And Underwriting 04:29 GTA Resale Tightening 05:03 Financing Benchmarks Reality 05:39 Regulatory Friction Bear Case 07:01 Segment Takeaways And CTA 07:55 Three Themes Recap 08:44 Disclosures And Disclaimer   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com