Trade uncertainty rises

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central bank rate cuts are expected this week - from some, but not all. And Shayne Elliott may be about to end his time at ANZ.But first in the week ahead, most eyes will be on the American Consumer Price Index, Then tomorrow (Tuesday) the RBA will review its cash rate target, and is expected to make no change a 4.35% and staying above the RBNZ's 4.25%. Central banks in Canada and the EU as well as Switzerland will review as well. The Canadians are expected to cut by -25 bps, the ECB by -50 bps and the Swiss by -25 bps. Inflation data from India is due too. In China, they deliver CPI, PPI, trade data, and New Yuan Loans data. Back in Australia, we will follow their November labour report and the NAB business confidence report. And perhaps we will get our own REINZ real estate market report for November at the end of this week (although no actual date is set yet).Over the weekend, the headlines say the US economy added +227,000 jobs in November, compared to upwardly revised +36,000 in October which was heavily influenced by Boeing strikes and the disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The November rise was above market expectations of +200,000. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance while the retail trade lost jobs. Meanwhile, the jobless rate inched up to 4.2%. (This move probably raised the chance of a -25 bps rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, next week, and taking the lower bound top 4.25%.)Looking behind these headlines, total employer payrolls rose to 160.6 mln, a +525,000 rise from October and a +2.2 mln rise from a year ago. This is a significant swelling of employer payrolls. More broadly, their household survey has the employed workforce at 161.5 mln (which includes the unincorporated self-employed). But that survey is not growing in 'actual' terms even if it is in seasonally-adjusted terms.Average hourly pay is up +4.0% in November from a year ago. Average weekly earnings were up +3.7% as overtime worked slipped. These are better gains than expected.This overall bullish labour market report was reinforced by the University of Michigan sentiment survey for December which rose for a fifth consecutive month to its highest level since April. Current conditions sentiment drove this. But rather than a sign of strength, this rise was primarily due to a perception that purchasing now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases. Consumers see inflation trouble ahead.So perhaps they bought more using personal debt? Total American consumer debt jumped +$19.2 bln in October, when a +$10 bln rise was expected. It accelerating from a downwardly revised +$3.2 bln rise in a month earlier. This marked the fastest pace of growth since July, equating to an annual growth rate of +4.5%, up from just +0.8% in September. Revolving credit, including credit card debt, saw a notable +14% increase, the largest since February, following a smaller +1.4% gain in September. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which includes car and student loans, grew by just +1.1%, up only slightly from +0.5% the prior monthCanada also released employment data for November overnight. Their employment rose +54,000, almost all of it full-time jobs. But their jobless rate rose to 6.8% and a seven year high, as more people entered their labour market as their participation rate rose.India reviewed its policy rate late Friday and made no change, although they did cut their reserve ratio for liquidity support reasons.In China, home loan interest rates are being driven down into the 3% range (depending on borrower financials) and there is talk that they may fall below that in coming months. There is widespread 'news talk' about how their housing market (and land sales to developers) are recovering, but the real evidence is yet to emerge.But their logistics index indicates improvements in their overall economic activity, reaching a seven year high.In Australia, media reports suggest that Shayne Elliott will step down this week as CEO of ANZ, after nine years in the role.The OECD has released its latest update of its Economic Outlook. While it doesn't specifically cover New Zealand, it does point out in a release note that tensions are creating headwinds for international trade in both advanced and emerging markets, and it will probably get worse. They have a rather stunning chart about trade policy uncertainty, here.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.15%, unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$2633/oz and little-changed from this time Saturday, and down -US$25 in a week.Oil prices are another -50 USc lower at just over US$67/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$68.50 and US$72.50 respectively, so down a -US$1.50 since then.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and unchanged from this time Saturday but down almost -1 from this time last week. Against the Aussie we down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we have also held 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68 to be unchanged from Saturday and down -60 bps in a week. We are approaching a six month low, primarily driven by the surging USD.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,796 and down -1.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI