Trade Wars | Recession | What about your Portfolio?

 🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70. 💥 Global Markets in Turmoil S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips. S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025 🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump's Economic Disruption 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years. Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est). Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course. Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders. 🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China). Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession. Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out. 🏦 US Treasuries Drama Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows. Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt? 💡 What To Do As An Investor Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks. Opportunities: SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts