Trading in the Dark: MBS in a Data Blackout

This week’s Convexity Pulse finds Kirill Krylov flying solo as he navigates a data blackout caused by the government shutdown, renewed U.S. / China trade tensions, and a market rally built more on uncertainty than conviction. He explores how missing data clouds mortgage modeling, reviews Bloomberg’s new weighted loan count feature for Supers, and connects America’s falling birth rate to the long-term housing pipeline. Kirill also dives into Florida’s cooling housing market and rising prepayment activity driven by AI-assisted loan processing.