Trump and the Black Jelly Bean Theory: CLOs Echo the MBS Fiasco from the GFC.

The New York Fed released a troubling report detailing the risk of Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) exposure in the insurance industry. Over the past several years, private equity has taken larger and larger stakes in insurers who are historically risk averse. But now they’re acting more like hedge funds in their investment strategies and have more than $2 trillion in corporate debt exposure and nearly $300 billion of it is in mezzanine financing packaged much in the way mortgage backed securities (MBS) were in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation, a renewed round of tariffs, elevated oil prices, the war in Iran and historic consumer debt, the economy is like a tinderbox. The jelly bean theory holds that you can only reach into the jar so many times before you eventually pick the black jelly bean. Apologies in advance to all those who like black licorice flavored jelly beans. Resources Bloomberg: Oil Takes Out $100 to Hit Two-Month High as Iran War Expands Reuters: Trump to impose ‘forced labor’ duties on Friday as temporary 10% US tariffs expire The New York Times: What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs on Canada, and What’s Next Brookings: Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update Bloomberg: The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline The New York Times: Alphabet Quadruples Profit to $112 Billion, Fueled by A.I. Investments CNBC: See how much prices have increased since 2020 — in one chart Bloomberg: Long Bonds Are Ringing a 2008 Alarm Bell New York Fed: Insurance Companies and the Growth of Corporate Loans’ Securitization Investopedia: Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organization (NRSRO) Definition The DESK: Rules & Ratings: Ratings agencies spar in private ratings legitimacy debacle UNFTR Resources Video: Trump is Running Us Off a Cliff | CLOs Echo the Global Financial Crisis. Episode: Is Private Credit the Pin That Pops the Bubble? Essay: Trump and the Black Jelly Bean Theory. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.