Trump vs Exxon on Venezuela, Chevron’s Caution, & Conoco’s $6–$12B Problem | BDE 01.19.26

Venezuela’s “open for business” moment gets a reality check, plus a wild Chavez-in-Houston story that tells you everything you need to know. Mark and David Pursell unpack why Exxon and friends are hesitant, what the EIA gets right and wrong, why the forward curve is the real lie detector, how Iran risk actually moves barrels, BP’s renewable hangover, and Tesla casually speed-running a lithium refinery in Texas.Click here to watch a video of this episode.Join the conversation shaping the future of energy.Collide is the community where oil & gas professionals connect, share insights, and solve real-world problems together. No noise. No fluff. Just the discussions that move our industry forward.Apply today at collide.ioClick here to view the episode transcript. 00:00 Tech hiccups and setup01:00 Chavez Houston story05:00 Trump press conference and Venezuela hype08:00 Why Venezuela isn’t investable14:30 EIA outlook and US production19:00 Rigs, frac spreads, and revisions22:00 Backwardation vs contango27:00 Iran supply risk30:30 Condensate and power constraints38:30 Geopolitical risk premiums40:30 BP write-downs and strategy shifts46:30 Energy transition reality check53:30 Tesla lithium refinery in Texas56:30 Data centers and power scramble01:01:30 Wrap-up and outlookhttps://twitter.com/collide_iohttps://www.tiktok.com/@collide.iohttps://www.facebook.com/collide.iohttps://www.instagram.com/collide.iohttps://www.youtube.com/@collide_iohttps://bsky.app/profile/digitalwildcatters.bsky.socialhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/collide-digital-wildcatters