Trump’s EU tariff threat, jittery bond markets, UK macro update, gold’s next steps and more

Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects on the enduring lessons from Liz Truss’s chaotic spell as UK Prime Minister.Also on the show:Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory dissect the UK macro outlook and what's gone wrong with the official data.Hamad Hussain from our Commodities team explains why structural forces are setting gold up for new record highs later this year.Analysis and events referenced in this podcastData: Tariff Impact Modelhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-modelRead: Trump threat of 50% tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/trump-threat-50-tariffsData: Global Trade Stress Monitor https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/global-trade-stress-monitorMarkets Drop-In: Europe’s outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalismhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-europes-outperformance-vs-state-us-exceptionalismRead: Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg uphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/gold-prices-take-breather-next-legCommodities Drop-In: OPEC+ talks, gold’s pullback, metals and tariffs and morehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-opec-talks-golds-pullback-metals-and-tariffs-and-more