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Good morning. Good afternoon. Good evening. Ladies and gentlemen, degenerates gamblers Green Bay Packers fans fans of the NFL shield everyone in between for and what.
Welcome in to episode number one. Oh one of the talking the line podcast. We have officially crossed over the century mark and thank you so much as always for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful August 12 2021. Now we have a lot to talk about in relation to the Green Bay Packers and beyond.
I'm sure there will be plenty of banter as you know I am a Bears fan and my partner is a Packers fan. But before we get into all of that jazz please take a few moments to smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the TTO pod on. If you are watching on YouTube might as well hit that notification bell as well so you never miss the start of a live show or any other additional TTO content dropping. If you are listening to the audio recorded version on your favorite podcast directory make sure you hit it there too if you haven't already as we always do release the audio every live show is over.
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Little tongue tied but ladies and gentlemen I still am your humble host Colton cold 45 stroke and once again thank you so much for choosing to stop by the talk in the line podcast once again I can't tell you how much we appreciate it and reluctantly. I'm going to go into today's show as an NFL analyst as an NFL fan I'm very excited to see what the Packers or rather what is in store for the Packers in 2021. But as a Bears fan I'm not looking forward to this whatsoever. I think it might be tough sledding for my bears in the games against the Packers and our resident cheese head has already made that very apparent in some of his analysis in the episodes prior.
He's very excited to be live in in prime time for his pack and without further ado let me bring in that man the myth the gentleman gambling legend and the aforementioned cheese head Riley R. Maggs. I'm going to be doing over there today pal my man I could not be doing much better today is about as excited as I am going to be certainly as excited as I'm going to be for an NFL season preview because I am excited to talk about my boys it's been a while since I've dove deep like we were about to on a pack. So I can't really wait and you know I'm feeling a lot better than yesterday I got all that pound of donuts out of my system I'm feeling loose I'm feeling like a you know a new man so I'm ready to rock and roll my man.
Hey I love to hear because we did have to send you home early from the production studios let all our mags on button pants if you will. About 2.33 o'clock until I fully recover. Yeah those donuts did not treat him all too well obviously I tapped out much earlier than he did but nonetheless had some fun doing that and I was crazy enough to have one. I was crazy enough to have one as a bit nice snack my partner could need a stick man.
Either way hey we got to have some stuff to talk about before we get into today's a loaded show I thrown my pin around at the same time couple things remind you guys about cult agenda stack giveaway is still going on so let me quickly reach on over to my right. Still stack and as I do it's still stack and as a reminder you can submit your guesses for how many sheets of paper you believe is in my agenda stack in the comments section and only in the comments section of episode number 100 of the Talking Align podcast on YouTube and accompany that with your Twitter handle. Now that also being said we didn't make it through the dozen donuts so we decided up the ante just a little bit here we are bumping up the Amazon gift card we're going to do a $50 Amazon gift card now we're also still going to do the Shaker set for you because we have a lot of fans that are also into health and fitness and athletics so we're going to cut that out bump up the Amazon card but we said to keep that in Amazon card 50 and also still our favorite we can't wait to bring them back on the show we're spending a long time the money line dies so that is the prize back and once again submit your guesses comment section episode number 100 on YouTube of the Talking Align podcast with your Twitter channel. So for the third time live on the daily show my that is a good angle right there boys and girls my agenda stack both angles both sides I'll even show it to you this way I'll even hold it at the end to show you it's got some weight to it maybe a little bit of a thumb through if you will little thumb through.
There you go. The solid stack man it is not to worry did you add to it after yesterday nope that's the same since I stopped adding to it on yesterday show so it's the same and that's the third official time so you'll see one more time on today show and then you'll see it. Two more times on tomorrow show and then once we stop tomorrow's live show the giveaway is over and we will find the winner from there so make sure you get it in if you haven't got it in you still got time but you better do it soon. However still got plenty of bets that we're looking at today.
We like if you want our best bets as we do not give them out on the daily show right now it's not business as usual NFL special editions you know the drill you can still get all of our best bets on the action network app I am at cash underscore with underscore cold mags is at our mags in all caps and then you can follow the talking line best bets of the day at talking the line. I know very hard to remember also this just popped into my head but we have a very very very interesting partnership going on in the background in regards to those partnerships or in regards to those bets. Now before we get into everything here sometimes maybe throughout the day you see this little lighter on Twitter me especially on my page I do a lot of the background stuff and a lot of the meetings and obviously editing the website and all that stuff so I'm tied up and all that stuff during the day and actually had a damn good meeting yesterday with a very very very very interesting intriguing electric human being that I can't wait to meet in person and I think that this is going to be something huge for not only for talking to the line sports media but also for our community for you guys to make it bigger and better so stick around for that we'll have more updates coming very very soon in that realm. But as always you go to talking the line dot com website and find all of our best bets the live lines and odds accompanied by all of our additional content blogs featured videos yada yada yada you can find it all there so make sure you visit our website too.
Outside of that you know the drill on today show if you've been coming around for the special editions will be talking all offensive and defensive lineups for the Packers will break down the coaching staff as well will dive deep into their schedule bringing it down week by week as well as what we think the records will be within the division there eight non divisional games and then the three remaining games outside of that. Then we're daily sports gambling show where sports betting analysts and at the end of the day we are die hard NFL degenerates so you know we had to give you a full betting preview some things that we really need to talk about there and plenty of interesting lines to discuss later on in the show on the third segment. Fourth and final segment you know we're also fantasy nerds we've been in the same league about to flip it over to dynasty league for the better part of the decade so in the fourth and final segment start stash or pass we will give you our best fantasy advice where you might be targeting some of these Packers in your upcoming draft and if you do get your hands on them are you starting them or passing on them all together. We'll let you know and we'll give you our best advice that all being said feel like I've rambled on a long enough here feel like I've given you guys all the updates hit the coach agenda stack let you guys know where you can still find our bets I cannot fucking wait to be able to hammer in FL bets to be able to hammer in college football bets and oh you might be able to do that.
And oh you might have thought cool there's a preseason game tonight the Patriots and the Washington football team are playing tonight hammering to be a no we're not no we're not hutching it. Now you might be a little upset at us for saying that and I do apologize my friends but there is no reason to try and rationalize and just buy and figure out NFL preseason games and I wouldn't feel right in my mind as cool as it is to cash a ticket at the end of the day flaunting around an NFL preseason ticket like I did something spectacular so I'm going to stay away from the third strings you know honestly you might think this opinion is dumb too but I think the preseason sucks I think you can erase it all together I honestly don't even really watch the bears in the preseason I just I don't get really much out of it maybe I'll turn it on for a quarter and then after that I lose so much interest yes like I could spend my time doing much better things maybe researching this team instead of watching guys who are going to get cut next week so yeah I mean I for the most part I'm with you on that one I told you I was probably going to watch a little bit of the Packers because Jordan loves going to play and I haven't seen him play it all so I'm excited to watch that a little bit but even like he said you watch a few snaps and you kind of start to get tired of it because it's just you know it is football but it's not the full not the full thing it's not the full thing so we're going to be staying away so if you're looking for NFL preseason bets we ain't doing it yet but hey it's so well under a month now the preseason is in full swing so we will be on it don't you worry a couple key updates for some upcoming shows we'll touch on at the end of today's episode and cover everything upcoming for the crew but for now let's dive into episode number 100 and today's team of the day the green Bay Packers of Lambo Field you know the frozen tundra has been on fire the last few years if I do say so myself and Rogers against all odds has continually improved has continually put up on godly numbers and last season was pure proof of that with his above 70% completion rate if you read my blog yesterday you already know that I think he is going to be MVP back to back repeat MVP but we'll talk about all that later we'll talk about a lot of stuff here today because I do also have some strong opinions up and down the offense and up and down the defense as I'm sure my partner does as well both from his cheese head perspective as well as from an NFL analyst perspective so we'll be sure to get you the bias and unbiased takes were me over here I'll be sure to not toss in too many bears jabs along the way but I don't think I can toss too many in because there's not a whole many legs I could stand on over the course of the last fucking decade let's say so without further ado ladies and gentlemen. My friends TTL faithful everybody in between let's get into the green Bay Packers full team breakdown as always I'll kick things off I will kick things off on the offensive side of the ball and I will kick things off with some of the key losses and kick it on over to my partner with some of the key additions offensively now they didn't let a whole too many guys walk offensively but the biggest name you will notice is Corey Lindsey gonna replace him with a rookie that my partner will tell you about that they picked up in the draft so I'm not too certain if that's gonna be a big blaring hole or if that's going to be a good addition and good feel for them they did also let Jamal Williams walk running back we know his production that RB two for green Bay he produced time and time again went to another NFC North team the Detroit lines we already talked about that but we're not talking about them here today they let Lane Taylor walk left guard Jared Valdere right tackle and also Ricky Wagner right tackle so overall only five guys pretty much gonna be the same offense so you deduct if you will after my partner tells you about the additions right now whether or not this Packers offense is going to improve or decline in 2021 and all right so you mentioned Corey Lindsey that is certainly a big loss there but they did add as you mentioned out of second round from Ohio State Mr Josh Myers center and I think he's gonna be a solid piece there and they seem to have some flexibility especially when David back to your comes back once he or to start the season without him they might be handcuffed a little bit as far as flexibility but they'll have some decent spots to move around and see what works the best and they were actually extremely efficient at avoiding third down altogether and they were ridiculous in the red zone they converted at a 76.81% clip and ladies and gentlemen that is all because of the 12 and 17 connection Tay and a rod are ridiculous together and when you get them in the 10 yard line or closer they're not running the ball they're gonna run an RPO and taste gonna be wide open in the corner somewhere I think we see very similar numbers very similar production I don't see how you can't with them not letting very many people go but in my mind when you see just continual continual improvement and then that seemed like the peak in 2020 how can you not see some aggression I know you hate to say that and that's not on your mind anywhere at all Mr Max but man I just I as an NFL fan as a fan of some of the incredible plays and incredible games that these team that this team has I don't want that to happen I just don't know it's kind of question mark of my head right now so before we I kick it over to you give all of my give your opinion your outlook what you think just a quick outlook so you guys know as far as the offensive side of the ball they are returning all of their wide receivers mark as about that scaling on the left side Alan Lazard out of the slot and then the aforementioned the F1 T Adams on the right side they got Bob Tunyon as well catch and passes tied in looks like he's gonna be TE1 this year Aaron Jones has firmly supplanted himself in the RB1 role now backed up this year by AJ Dillon who looks to potentially break out here they also have on the bench Marry Rogers picked up via the draft which my partner told you about and then Devin Fungis not super high on Devin Fungis he's kind of a started decline here over the last few years but still a decent depth ad for them and then they have joined love obviously behind the main man QB 12 MVP Aaron Rodgers and then the offensive line offensive line back to health this year help me out a little bit here that is not Billy Turner yeah Billy Turner and then Patrick that Lucas Patrick's Patrick Josh Myers Elton Elton Elton Elton Jenkins and then David Takatari or Baccari to you that's you know obviously same offense we've seen over the course of the course of the year not much has changed there one thing I want to mention for I kick it over to you partner is that I'm a little scared about this receiving core fact that they didn't make any moves they did bring in a marry Rogers he was very very good in college I definitely watched him a good amount at Clemson as we all did his Clemson was on prime time all the time but I don't know that we see an uptick from Lazard or if we see an uptick at all for MVS last I checked those guys dropped the ball an awful lot and didn't give Aaron Rodgers many opportunities to have a smile on his face when he sent it down field in their direction it is also evidenced by some of the numbers on targets 10 plus yards downfield to non-devante Adams receivers they had a 48 and a half percent catch rate and a 16.1% drop rate so not good that's going to need to improve this year but like I just said I don't necessarily know that it does not harder I've been talking enough about him let me hear what you think for your pack going into the 2021 season offensively okay so I do agree that you know it would seem that there are spots for regression but I also think there's spots for you know positive regression on the other end receiver room has some injuries in the last few years they've been among the worst five teams as far as wide receiver rooms health wise so I have to imagine that's going to take back up in the right direction this time around and those drops man I have to imagine those drops are also going to you know positive regression here this season you know maybe not but I still a lot of people have hate from Marquez Bell the scantling he doesn't show it on the stat sheet but what he does so damn well is take the top off of the defense and that's why the Monta Adams had one of the had the best year of his career and I think we see that again and you know hopefully on the Zarkin stay healthy and have more production than he had otherwise you know he's going to see a similar season his last year I think we could see Bob Tanya and having more production down the field this year have a little bit more you know catches in receiving yards 11 times down I have to imagine we're not going to see double digit touch downs from him again that was kind of an anomaly in my opinion and then as far as the running backs I think the way they take the top off the defense of Mark has validous gambling that really bodes well for Aaron Jones who's improved so much as a pass catcher and that's really why I think they led Jamal Williams walk because Aaron Jones has improved so much and now while AJ Dillon isn't the pass catcher that Jamal Williams was the improvement of Aaron Jones really shores that up and AJ Dillon can still run the hell out of the ball and a lot of people aren't thinking he's going to have much of an impact I'm not saying he's going to be a pro bowler have 1000 yards I'm not saying that but like I was saying we're taking the top off the defense for MBS that really bodes well for Randall cop who when he was successful for the Packers he was finding those lanes to when the play broke down to find those ways to find holes in the defense and if you're taking the top off the defense I think we're going to see that and be a lot more effective than people are expecting yeah I agree with a lot of the things you're saying as far as MBS rip in the top off the defense yes he has a speed sir in my mind it comes down to his mentality broken yeah there has been a shit load of hate even from the cheese at community towards MBS and I don't know if we see that improvement I hope so for his sake I for his sake as a human being I don't want to see him drop in balls and miss and targets like he did last year hopefully we do see that improvement I definitely sounds like you think we will I believe we will as well and I think the people who cover the team really closely have really defended him this past year and I think that's kind of bleeding into the rest of the fan base so and like you were saying and like I was saying I think him especially those deep all drops are going to as far as the drop rate is going to go way down and we see a few more big touchdowns from him this year yeah and then I echo another sentiment you said as far as Bob Tony and I think we see some aggression I think you got to be a little tentative on him and we'll talk about it more in fantasy but I think you should temporarily expect a little bit from last year you said it I to think it was a bit of an anomaly and I mean I'm not saying he's going to be bad but it's not going to be highlight real after highlight real in my opinion this year like I think he's going to have some positive regression as far as his entire game is concerned but I mean 11 touchdowns for a guy that had I don't even know where he ranked as far as tight and catches in your arms a lot more close to the middle of the pack so you know production wise probably take down yeah and then finally before we move into the defense one final thing you hit on that I did not hit on well actually two final things running back room in the rental cop running back room I absolutely love it I think this is insane value Aaron Jones signed that extension last year coming into this year I think he absolutely balls out I think he's going to be a little bit more of a good game in the game and I think he's going to be a little bit more of a good game in the game and I think he's going to be with the game. I find that he's probably probably playing with a long way his progress.
But as just everybody's going to see that they turn him into a workhorse and then AJ Dillon more than the sauce and the sauce I mean he's put all of that because he is dominant dominant dominant on the field so I think he is just fine replacement for Jamal Williams you know Jamal Williams was sick in Green Bay look at him on the fantasy roster but I'm fine with AJ Dillon and I think he has plenty of value too but the aforementioned rental cop little worried. Now, he's not that old but he does have a shitload of miles on that you said that to me before partner. And there was a reason he was playing with the Houston Texas and I mean maybe we'll see flashes from time to time. I hope that for Rogers sake hit the and making all this boot about it and having them bring Coben pays off.
If it doesn't, that'll be real bad for his case. And then we really might part ways into 22, but we're not talking about that right now. I just, I don't know how quickly he gets worked in or if he still has the capability of that six yard out 92 yard touchdown. Yeah, that's fair.
And basically what I was kind of saying is, while some of his game has fallen off, I think this new style of math floor offense that he hasn't played in might be, even more tailor main for his skills at the moment we saw with Mike and Karthi in there. So, you know what, like I said, I think it's gonna be his production wise, numbers wise might be similar to what we've seen in the last couple of years, but I think it's gonna be a more effective, you know, production than when we saw the last two years, as far as those kind of being a little bit more empty and kind of just getting catches here and there. I think it could be third down conversions or, you know, these, when the play breaks down, I guess is what I'm gonna say, play action that type of stuff. Yeah, and as far as third down conversions go as well that you mentioned that, the Packers really did a great job at avoiding third downs.
I already mentioned it, but they were spectacular on first down, they were spectacular on second down and they just really did a great job. And even when they faced those third downs, they were super short yardage and they could depend on the run game to get them those short downs. And yeah, I think you might be right, man. Or, I know Kyle might have a little success in this little floor, RPO offense.
We'll see what happens, but Jerry's still out definitely in my mind. Now I know we could spend about 15 more hours talking about Packers offense. Quickly wrap it up. We gotta move into the defense.
Yeah, to say a little unbiased here, I would say the one concern I have is losing court Lindley and just not knowing what we're gonna get from a couple of these young pieces on offense, especially before David Bakhtiari comes back. Cause once the Bakhti comes back, you know, all systems go, I feel great here. But early on in the season, I'm wondering if we might see a few growing pains from Myers or if they have to sprinkle in Newman here. Do you think Bakhtiari will make week one?
It doesn't sound like it, but you know, within the first month or so it does sound like it. Or at least halfway through. Okay, I'm actually really glad you mentioned that. Cause Josh Myers is, I mean, even though we had a great college career at Ohio State, I don't know.
It's a question mark. You never know what's. But they do have guys. They do have some guys that are flexible though.
So that's what gives me at least still some optimism here. Absolutely. So we'll have plenty more to talk about the offense and plenty more hot takes and everything. Talk about quickly into the defense so we can get all through the full team breakdown here.
You know, everything going on. Partner kick things off if you would with the key defensive losses from the back going into 2021 here. Nothing too much to write home about here. They cut a lot of guys that were, you know, guys that were practice squad guys very deep on the depth chart here or even, you know, two or three games that they played last year.
Like Snacks Harrison, I think played one or two games. He's out of town. But the bigger guys here are Christian Kirksey, played a lot of it in games, started 11 games that linebacker he's in Houston now. And then Montrevis Adams interior defensive line played eight games, but he was pretty largely disappointment over the last few years for us.
And now he's in New England. So nothing crazy to write home about here. You know, with the Montrevis Adams, I said it was a disappointment at Christian Kirksey. Kind of disappointing.
Not, it would still be a nice depth piece to have. But like I said, nothing crazy to write home about your partner. Nothing crazy to write home about for sure. Was looking over here on the old mobile device.
We did have a little update. If you guys didn't know, not in relation to the Packers, but the Ravens, we've already covered the Ravens. Rashad Bateman is going to be getting surgery tomorrow or Friday on his groin that he did injury in practice. And looks like per John Harbaugh, he's going to be back sometime in September.
So the rookie career of Bateman is not completely washed. You heard me talk about him. I am electrified. You have to see this man on the field.
We watched a shitload of him in a big 10 in Minnesota. So I hope he gets back to the field soon as possible. Tees and peas, but let's keep moving with the defensive additions. Now they didn't add much on this side either.
They really, again, I don't want to say that this draft was a plus because they did add some key pieces, some key depth pieces, and definitely for the future as well. But it just didn't seem like they were super duper aggressive. In either via free agency or the trade, they picked up the Vondre Campbell line back or out of Arizona, and then they picked up four guys in the draft. They took number one.
Their number one pick was Eric Stokes, defensive back out of Georgia. Hopefully he can sure up some of the bonehead issues that we saw from mainly Kevin King last year, but some of the other guys on the field. So hopefully we see some impacts from him right off the bat. They also drafted, excuse me, to their old Salatin defensive tackle out of Florida.
Shamar Gene Charles, defensive back at Appalachian State. I can't really remember him, but I bet a mess on the Appalachian State Mountaineers and college football last year, and that's secondary was damn good. So I got to think he's going to be good too. So that's another depth add for this secondary.
And then Isaiah McDuffey, out of Boston College line backer, I liked him a lot in college. You know, Boston College kind of slides under the radar a lot. They don't typically have the best record or typically get those prime time games. So we'll see what Isaiah McDuffey can do if he can make any type of an impact, but that doesn't as far as the defensive additions.
Quickly with some defensive stats here. They allowed opponents to move the sticks about five and a half yards per play last year. Opponent completion percentage was at 64.61%. When they got to third downs, they allowed opponents to convert at a 40.5 8% clip.
So very solid there. And in the red zone, you'd like to see him take it down a little bit, but not bad. A lot of opponents scored at 59.65% clip. Honestly, sometimes you, and me personally too, sometimes I look at this Packers defense and I just get weird flashbacks that they give up a bunch of points.
So they're not very good here or there. And they're sneakily really damn good. When you look into the numbers, when you look at them, when you look at what some of these guys have developed into over the course of the last two, three years, this is a damn good defense. And I'm pretty doggone stick scared being a Bears fan facing them and also look out and have seen North.
I think this defense is going to be the best that we have seen it yet. And definitely something that potentially for a change, the Packers could hang their hats on. That's a stretch for sure, but it is a damn good defense. They have the Darius Smith on the line.
Dean Lowry, that is on the tackle. Rockford shot out. Kenny Clark opposite of him and then Preston Smith on the opposite side. You know the Smith bros.
You know how it gets down there in Lambo. Eric Stokes going to be on the outside. Looks like he's getting an immediate starting spot. He's going to be competition.
He's going to be kind of a competition with Kevin King. But hey, that'd be kind of cool if on your half if Kevin King gets ousted out. That is Charles. Chandon Sullivan.
Chandon Sullivan and then Jair Alexander. Jair Alexander has turned into one of the best corners in the league in my mind. And I cannot wait to see him play. My old boy who I hate to see play in the yellow and gold now, but I still love to watch him play as an NFL fan.
Yellow and gold. Yellow and green. It still started with the G. I was close.
Adrian Amos coming back fourth year three now. year three I do believe it is. So I think he has another productive year. And then Darnell Savage, Jr.
And then he's got the opposite of him taking the deep field. He is a dominant dominant free safety. So man, I love the secondary. I love the front seven.
They obviously brought in the linebacker as well in the Vondre Campbell and opposite of him. That is Chris Barnes. So man, oh man, you just look at this from a name standpoint. And some of these guys over the course of the last few years might not have been the top tier names.
But I think we got a damn good shot to see some of these guys in the top 10 of their positions all across the board this season. Yeah, well, the one name that you didn't mention here, and it's not on the list there. And he technically might not be a starter. But Sean Gary has really improved last year.
And he's going to be along with the Smith Brothers had a rotating in as pass-rushers. And that's really the biggest thing for this defense is that the pass-rushing has to get back to, and specifically those three guys. Because Preston Smith was pretty largely disappointing after an amazing 2019 season. He had a down take last year, started to pick up a little bit at the end of the year.
But we really need him and the dairies to be. And just, I don't know if I want to say dominant factors, but at least close to pro-bow level pass-rushers. And it sounds like what Sean Gary continues to improve. So if we don't see some pass-rushers, like I'm kind of expecting me to see an uptick in that rate.
If we don't see that, then this defense is probably going to look a lot like it was last year. But if we do have the pass-rusher, it's going to look like kind of what you're saying, a really solid defense. There are some holes here. These linebackers are new.
We haven't had too much consistency there. But obviously, our new defensive coordinator is a former linebackers coach. So I have to imagine that should help our young linebackers here. Fit into this defense.
And as you mentioned, that secondary, Kevin King, Eric Stokes, whoever's on that side of things, it's going to be a question mark once again here. But kind of coupling it with the pass-rus once again. If that pass-rus rates picks up, then a lot of the weight is going to be off those guys' shoulders. And even if we don't see an improvement from Jayar Alexander, he's still at top five corner.
But he's still, I don't know exactly what AJ is. He's still in his mid-20s. We could see another huge improvement from him and be, you know, top three corner back if he's not already. So I've got a lot of optimism here, but still some skepticism just because, you know, it hasn't been, you know, any part of our strengths over the last decade with Rodgers there, 2019, it was pretty solid.
But, you know, I'm still a little skeptical, but I've got some optimism here. Now, if I'm not mistaken, the Packers, over the course of the last few seasons, have rushed on defense at one of the highest rates in the league, or actually one of the lowest rates in the league. Like, where's the defense is you're saying? Yeah, like they've rushed one of the lowest-days in the league.
Oh, like they said the most, but at least you have one of the highest sacks. So last year it was really weird. It was like the 26th or 27th pressure rate, but their sack rate was like top 10 or something. Like that was a really weird split.
Yeah, so you would think that there's gonna be some, some definite regression in that sack side of things that they can't up that. Yeah, if that pressure rate stays the same, that's kind of what I was saying. We're gonna see a lot like last year. So it's really bizarre.
Like when they did get to the passer, they typically took them down, but you have to be able to, you know, if you're not sacking them, you still have to be able to give the quarterback some tough looks and make them think twice, which is where they kind of lacked last year. So that's basically what I'm saying. They need to increase that pass for us rate. And if they do that sack rate, it's gonna go even higher again here.
There you go. All right. Well, that's all cleared up. Let's wrap things up here.
Full team breakdown and coaching staff, with that coaching staff. Matt LeFluor coming in for year three head coach, joined for his third year as well by Nathaniel Hackett and then a brand new in his first year former linebackers coach for the Los Angeles Rams, is Joe Berry. Very excited to see what these guys can do. I am excited to see if LeFluor's offense continues to improve, I think it will, but off the top of my head, how much more can you improve?
I just, I don't know. And this, obviously, the cold that ignites the fire in the engine that is the Packers train is Aaron Rodgers. So he's going to once again, have to be Superman. We all know that.
But as far as that all goes, full team breakdown for you guys there. Let me quickly tell you about some rankings. So you're on the same page and then we'll get into the schedule. For the guys over at SFAA, as always, the quarterback room comes in ranked as the number two in the league.
Obviously, having Aaron Rodgers, there's no arguing that whatsoever. Offensive line now looks like to be back to full health, especially once they get boxy, already back come in ranked as the eighth unit in the league. Can definitely improve upon that number as well. Running back unit seventh in the league.
And I think that they have the potential to finish within fifth or maybe even third, if they play their guards right here and have a deep run. Receiver unit 14th in the league. Obviously, that number is a lot lower because of Devontae Adams. If he was not on the field, I think that this would be up in the 20s in my humble opinion.
On the opposite side of the ball, the defense, the front seven, a little bit weak ranking 20th unit in the league right now. I think that they can improve upon that, but it's going to come down to that rush rate and sack rate that we just talked about a little while ago. Secondary, again, a lot of love from the guys at SFAA. Seventh overall unit in the league.
I would have to agree with that. The improvement we've seen year over year and the additions that they made via the draft, only added depth and some long-term value. So I agree with that 100%. And then third year coach, Matt LaFloor, comes in ranked crack that's up 10th ranked coach in the NFL right now for the guys at SFAA.
So I would agree with that as well. I think he definitely has plenty of opportunity to improve upon that, especially if he gets his pack back to the NFC Championship game once again this season. Look at that smoke come across the face. Well, and like one of the things I wore in sharp mentions here is that it's tough to rate Matt LaFloor because it's like, all right, how much of what his success is.
Is on Aaron Rodgers, how much of it is actually Matt LaFloor. So it's tough to judge, but I think the 10th ranking there is pretty fair. Most definitely, most definitely. All right, well there we go ladies and gentlemen, full team breakdown, let's keep it rocking and rolling in two.
The full schedule breakdown for the Green Bay pack. First things first, I'll go through it weekly. And then we'll just break it down. We'll talk about what we think they're gonna do in the North and their divisional, non-divisional opponents, everything like that.
So first things first here my friends, taking a look at week one, they're meeting the Saints in New Orleans. Then they come back to Lambo to face the Lions, then back on the road to San Francisco, back home to welcome the Steelers into Lambo. And then on the road back to back weeks, five and six to the Bengals and the Bears. Week seven, they come back to Lambo.
Can you say traveling all over the damn man? Washington football team in week seven, back to Arizona in week eight, then to Kansas City in week nine, they get to welcome the Seahawks to Lambo in week 10. Then they go on kind of up and over to Minnesota in week 11, then week 12, thank goodness, they welcome the Rams into Lambo. But Matt Stafford is gonna be coming back to town for the first time since joining the Rams.
They have their bike week and week 13, and then welcome the Bears. Bear down, any opportunity I can, but that is at Lambo in week 14, not super excited about that one. If the Bears get away and it might be in week six, that's a big if. Week 15, they go on the road to Baltimore, and then they come back home for the Browns.
Then they are at home again in week 17 against the Vikings and close out the season on the road in Detroit. So not the hardest schedule on the map early in the season, but about halfway through and then for the rest of the season, it gets daunting. And mainly because of a lot of the past defenses that this Packers team's gonna face. Obviously they have Aaron Rodgers.
Obviously Aaron Rodgers have been playing out of his mind. That's gonna factor a lot into some of my selections here. But man, it's gonna be a coin flip in a couple areas for me if I do say so myself. So now that you know the full schedule, let's just get on into it here.
And partner, try to be his unbiased. I will try. This is the real spot that you got. All right, so first things first, NFC North.
Man, I've gone back and forth so many times. And if it's Andy Dalton in week six when we face them, it's gonna be pretty bad. Now, if it's Justin Fields, there's a shot. We might have a little sump going on, especially playing in Chicago.
And that could be potentially the week that they do slot him in, or maybe against the Bengals and then Field is playing decent. Has the speed game. I don't know. Maybe, maybe the Bears get that game.
And that's not me as a Bears analyst. That's just early season Bears Packers, Packers, Games are fucking goofy. So maybe a split there. They easily get the Lions, O and two.
And in my mind, they easily get the Vikings, or two and O, and then two and O for the Vikings as well. Unless they go brain neutral in a game against the Vikes again this year and let Dalvin cook absolutely run over them. We all remember that happening last year because we all hammered in the Packers spread in that game. So my mind, they go five and one if that is a split.
And that's maybe more of a lean for me being a Bears fan, but just kind of some of the trends from historically. But I would say in my mind, they go five and one, if not six and O, if they get a clean sweep of the Bears as well. Yeah, I kind of lean five and one six and O here once again. I think the Packers have the Bears number right now.
The Bears defense is still very good, but it's not what it was in 2018. I don't know if that's enough to stop this Packers offense. So far as the Vikings are concerned, two and O against the Lions again. I don't even need to dive into that too much.
But as far as the Vikings are concerned, they did lose that game last year. And like you said, Dalvin cook ran rampant on their defense and they really just controlled that game. So I think the Packers, if I'm not mistaken, that was definitely the second of the two games against the Vikings. So the Packers are probably still thinking about that game and wanting to get their look back here in week 11.
And then in week 17, it's a home game on Sunday night football with a little bit of a rest advantage. So like I said, I'll try and stay unbiased, but even me being unbiased is tough to do as far as I go overly unbiased. So I'm going to stick with six and O. I'll put it this way.
One way or another, I think something goofy happens from them going perfect in the North. And either they split with the Vikes or they split with my Bears. I don't think there's any hope for the Lions, but something it just seems too perfect after last season. Aaron coming back in the whole off season drama.
It just seems too damn perfect. And if I know one thing about NFL, when everything seems too damn perfect, it ain't going to happen that one. So the best is my opinion. The best thing is that they have no rest disadvantage if I'm not mistaken on any of these division games.
Correct. I do believe you are correct there too, but we'll get into some rest and prep here shortly. They have a main games outside of the division. They play the AFC North and the NFC West.
Yikes. Going to get a little sweaty for the old pack for sure. They're going to have some shootouts in my mind. I think that they can get the win over the Ravens, but that's a bad defensive matchup.
Not for Aaron Rodgers, but for every other player on that field. And I mean, there's only so much Superman Aaron Rodgers can have in a game. And with that game being in week 15, especially after coming off the Bears, you might think they might look ahead against the Bears. Maybe they lose that game to the Bears.
Maybe that's the game they lose to the Bears. Or who knows, maybe they come down. I don't know. I don't know.
What I do know is I can see that game in my mind going either way and it's being a complete shootout in a half. So that being said, I think they get the Bengals no problem. The Brownies is once again going to be a shootout Christmas day, but I think that they edged that out on Christmas. Is that in Lambo?
It is. That is in Lambo. I'm in my mind. So I'll have them lose into the Ravens just because it is at the bank.
They beat the Brownies. They beat the Bengals. And then I think too that they beat the Steelers. That's an early season game in Lambo week four.
So in my mind, they go three in one. Yeah, I'll say three in one as well. I think they split with the Ravens and Browns. I'm leaning towards the Browns as you are.
I can see it flipping the opposite way as well, though. And once again, I think they beat the Steelers. I think the Steelers defense I really like, but I don't like their offense enough to stay in it with Aaron Rodgers here. And it's, you know, even if the Steelers defense hold them down.
I don't think the Steelers offense does much. I'll go three in one with you as well. Ten four into the NFC West. It is the most toss up division in the league this year.
This is going to be the hardest division as far as within each other, battling it out. And then everybody else that has been granted the opportunity and pleasure of having to face right these teams on their schedule. That just got to face all four of them. I think they get the win against the Cardinals.
I think that defense just has too many dog on holes in it to stop anything Aaron Rodgers will do. I think they get the win against the Rams in the regular season. I think they do. It's right before the buy.
That's going to be huge for them. I think they get that win. But if you read my blog yesterday, I think they get into playoffs. And that's when Sean McVay gets his link back.
But we won't talk about that yet. We're not talking about the Rams. We're not talking about the Rams. Okay.
And then Seahawks again, Seahawks Packers games are just absolutely always bananas anyway. And then you're going to add into this season. That game is in Lambo field. So I would side with the Packers in that sense then too.
And then as far as the 49ers go, that is in San Francisco. I could see something goofy happening there in week three. It's one of their harder games in the first five weeks of the season as far as defensive pass faced goes. So I could see them once again going three and one way or another here messing up some loss somewhere somehow in the NFC West.
So lock me in for three and one once again for the remaining four there. Okay. Yeah. Optimistically, I will say three and one as well.
But I'm honestly two and two wouldn't shock me here. I don't want to talk about it too much because you're going to save a minute. But they've got some tough rest disadvantages within these three or four games here. I think as well as you, I think they outshoot the Cardinals there even with the Seahawks coming off of their by week at what it looks like here.
I think the Packers take care of them. You mentioned that these games have been crazy over Rogers and Wilson's careers. And that's no lie at all. The last two, three years the Packers have had their number aside from maybe one primetime game.
So I do like the Packers in that one. That game against the Rams. It does appear that the Rams have a nice advantage about Russ Wiesen. I'm not a little skeptical there.
So I'll give them a loss there. And I'm even skeptical about the Niners. And it's because of what they did to us two years ago. I think I speak for a lot of Packers fans even last year when they were injured.
They were still nervousness going into that game because it's just this lingering like, they really pulled their pants down and punched us in every single part of our, you know, our feelings here in the regular season and in the playoffs. So I am not as scared of the Niners offenses I was in that year, regardless of whose quarterback. I don't think they have as many pieces as they did two years ago that defense if they can get healthy again though, it still scares me a little bit. So I'll try and be unbiased here and say two and two actually.
All right. If they had some rest advantages, I would probably lean three and one. But they've got some tough disadvantages in those games. Usually me over a little bit there.
So there's our opinions as far as that. They got three remaining games against the Chiefs, the football team and the Saints. Now I don't think that they're going to get the win on the road in the Chiefs Kingdom against the Chiefs. Just not going to happen in my mind.
That that place arrowhead is going to be absolutely rocking this year. There's no there's no if fans about it. Chiefs Kingdom did get to be president in 2020. It is going to be bananas.
I feel sorry for any team that has to go into Arrowhead. No question in my mind. So that one's kind of a wash for me. But I think they don't have much of a problem with that Washington football team.
I think that defense might cause there in a few problems. And I think potentially it'll cause that wide receiver room a lot of problems. So that a little bit closer to the game. But I think the Packers definitely get it.
I don't think the football team's going to beat Aaron Rodgers in the floor. And then I think that the Packers definitely get to win over the Saints. I don't think the Saints will have enough offensive firepower to get it done in that game. So for me, they go two and one in the remaining three.
Yeah, I'll stick with you on that one almost to a T their partner. The Saints, if they're playing them later in the season in New Orleans, I'll be a little concerned. Because I think the Saints will kind of figure themselves out as the season goes with some of these changes. But week one, I like the Packers a lot in that game.
And then on bias, I'll stick with you and say the Chiefs get to win in that one. And then maybe come February, something else happens kind of like what you were saying maybe. I'm thinking so. But in that one, I mean, the Packers did go into Arrowhead two years ago in 2019 to take a win.
But it was without Patrick Mahomes. The Packers often still did what they needed to do. But who knows how many more points of Chiefs were to score in that game. So I'll give the Chiefs to win there.
And then like you said, I really like that Washington defense. But I think when you have a bad, really good defense. But when your offense is questionable, I still think that both well for Aaron Rodgers to outshoot you a little bit there. So I'll give him to him one as well.
Yeah, I actually have the Rams making it there this year. But the Packers are very dog on interesting man. They're very dog on interesting to make it all the way. And I resonate extremely well with Aaron's highbrow thinking it's we're on the same wavelength when it comes to that stuff.
I am just a fan of him as a human being. Being a fan of the Pat McAfee show and being able to see him every Tuesday just made me even more of a fan of Aaron Rodgers. Just as a human being, not even as an NFL football player. Same.
And I didn't think I could get to that. Yeah. And I mean, it just it turned me over and it'd be an a Bears fan. I'd say that dog gone.
I mean, he's just such a cool dude. And you know, I think that I think that they have an opportunity, man. And I buy into what he's the snake oil he's selling as crazy as that sounds coming from me. I'm buying into the snake oil.
Roger is selling now to briefly put a cherry before we talk about some of the rest of prep inequalities and some of the scheduled differences from 2020 to 2021 got me down right there at 12 wins season total that we'll talk about in a little while is at 10. So they go 12 and three or 12 and five overall. Not not bad for the pack. Obviously not a repeat a last year record wise, but I still definitely think that this is a 12 and five pack.
This is a 12 and five packers team in my mind. So that all being said, quick look through here at some of the key rest and prep inequalities and then a couple of key items and then we'll get into the real juice, the betting previous. As far as rest and prep go, not looking good for the Packers, you mentioned a good amount there here just a little while ago partner. They face four opponents that have over a week to prep for them.
And they only face three opponents that have less than a week to prepare for them. They have four rest disadvantages and the Packers only have three rest advantages. They play two short week road games and they play one road game or one game off a road Sunday night or Monday night football game. One of these here days, I'll be able to get that last one.
But as far as that goes, I mean about the only shining spot is they don't have to play right away off of a road prime time game, but outside of that it's not looking too good schedule wise for your pack. Right. And like I said, I think a lot of the struggle as far as rest is advantages might come in those NFC West games. The biggest advantage they have is by week at home and week 14 coming off and by week to play your Bears.
And aside from that, they got a four day advantage against the Chiefs so that hopefully that can help them. Otherwise, the only other one appears to be a one day advantage against the Vikings in week 17. Ten four. One final closing thought before we get into the full betting preview.
Now I mentioned I'm a little worried for Aaron. I think that he is going to have a good year, but I don't know what we see from this wide receiver room. I want to say that they improve, but there's something glaring at me that I got to let you guys know about. These Packers this season face 10 defenses inside the top 15 in defensive pass efficiency allowed.
They face eight defenses inside the top 10 in that same category. So I don't think Rogers has the problem. I think it's going to be the receivers that has the problem. Devante is going to be fine.
In my mind, he is the best receiver in the league. He had Jalen Ramsey looking like a little kid banging his rattle on his high chair last year. We all saw it. He's the best receiver in the league.
And I'm a Bears fan. Everyone else on that team? Fuck all. I have no idea.
I can't tell you. I don't know how much of a factor that is going to loom, but it bears mentioning and it's definitely something that you've got to keep in the back of your mind. I don't think it impacts Rogers that much, but I do think it impacts this wide receiver room. Okay.
I think health is a big concern as far as receiver room. I think that goes up for sure. I think that goes up for sure. But they're going to have to play.
All right. Well, there you go. Ladies and gentlemen, the entire schedule breakdown of the Green Bay Packers. Let's get into it.
The entire betting preview for the 2021 season for the pack. You know, a lot of these lines will talk about the weekly lines here in just a minute, but a lot of the lines are going to be a little bit different. We already noticed that from what we have the week one in two lines have already flipped or moved up, ticked up. And these lines at the time of publication were set because we didn't really know if Aaron Rogers was going to be with the Packers or not.
So they have kind of ticked up here and there. We'll talk about that. We'll talk about some potential spots that we think, oh, yeah, these probably have flipped or stuff like that too. But before we do that, some key 2020, ATS over under teaser trends.
You know how it goes. First things first, in 2020, the pack was favored by an average of five points, not getting as much respect from the books, but that again might be because of the question marks around Aaron Rogers. It was at minus zero point four favorites. Their average line in 2021 at the time of publication.
If I was a bet, man, I bet that probably has gone up to about minus two or minus three, some are right around that ball. Sure. As far as their record goes in 2020, they were 10 and six ATS, 13 and three straight up. They went eight and five ATS as a favorite and two and one ATS as an underdog at home.
They were obviously dominant anytime the Packers play Lambo field is pretty much guaranteed. They're going to cover five and three overall five and three as a favorite were never a home underdog in 2020. They were five and three ATS on the road as well. Three and two ATS as an away favorite and two and one ATS as an away pooch.
Overall, pretty doggone good ATS team. I know that you hammered them in all the time. I was a blast and a half for you, not just being an NFL better, but also being a Packers fan. So hopefully for your sake, that happens again this year.
And I think it definitely does. I think they are cover machines once again. And I think that some of these lines are going to be in the perfect spot with a Packers to cover. As far as game totals, they had an average line of 51.1 in 2020.
Now, this line also might have ticked up, but at the time of publication had an average of 46.8. I imagine that it's ticked up probably back to around the 4950 mark for sure. Five and two to the under at home, right? And then five and two to the over on the road.
They were eight and seven to the over as a favorite and three and O to the over as an underdog. Now that favorite and underdog split that does include playoff games as well. Just so you guys know. Also, teasers, well fans of teasers and the Packers are a team that you need to add into your teasers, no doubt.
In six, seven and ten point teasers respectively. They had a 13 and three, 13 and three and 14 and two record in 2020. They are definitely a team. The last couple teams we talked about and maybe stay away.
You ain't got to worry about that here with the Packers, especially if you can get them through two, three, maybe even four key numbers scoop them up 150%. So that does it for some of the 2020 trends, some of the key things you guys should be aware of. Let's keep it back and rolling here into 2021. Now, I know that already said it, but these lines might be just a bit different.
Let me run through it just like I do for the schedule as always. And then we'll pull out a little bit of value. They'll definitely get a lot more betting value to talk about than we did with the Lions yesterday. So strap on in.
They come in as two and a half point favorites or two point favorites, depending where you look to the Saints in week one. They've already ticked up to minus 10 and a half point favorites in week two against Detroit in Lambo. Time of publication, they were at five point dogs to San Francisco. Might be pretty accurate.
They were in San Francisco. Their game, that game is played in San Francisco. So it's around three. It might have ticked down a little bit for sure to Pittsburgh.
Time of publication minus two and a half in week four, minus three against Cincinnati in week five. That's definitely going up minus two and a half in week six against the Bears. Might have ticked up maybe a point, maybe minus three and a half. Week seven against the football team minus four.
I'd imagine that's ticked up to minus six. Arizona and week eight plus three underdog. I would imagine there's no way there in underdog on that line at this point time now. Might be closer to a pick up right two or three Kansas City's seven point dogs in week nine.
Might be right around there. Might have ticked down to maybe a four and a half somewhere in that ballpark. Seahawks in week 10 minus three favorites. So I would say maybe right around there.
Vikings in week 11, three point dogs. No fucking way. Aaron Rodgers is a three point dog in or well, that is in Minnesota, but still either way against the Vikings. That's definitely move pick them in week 12 against the Rams in Lambo.
I think that's probably pretty accurate still. Five and a half point favorites against the Bears in Lambo in week 14. So I think that probably is pretty damn the same time. Maybe even minus six and a half at this point too.
Baltimore five and a half point favorites in week 15 or five and a half point under that. In week 15, that is in Baltimore. I told you, I think that that is one of the games that the AFC North that the Packers do lose. Then they go back to Lambo in a pick up against the brands in week 16 and then week 17.
They have the Vikings at Lambo again. They are favored by three points and then the Packers wrap up their season against Detroit favored by three and a half points in Detroit. So I think that one probably has ticked up a little bit as well. I have zero.
Yeah, zero confidence at all in the Detroit Lions covering any type of numbers this year. So once it jumped off the board of me for sure, going to be that Bengals game is going to be those Lions games. I'm going to be a little tentative on those Minnesota games, definitely the one in Minnesota, but they did run your guys's ass in Green Bay last year. So I heard the hell knows the Bears.
I do like, but I'll never bet against my team. You can kiss my ass on that Kansas City might be worth the spread look. I definitely think the spread look against Arizona. If there's still dogs on the line, take that money line dog all day long.
Are you kidding me? And then 49ers is kind of a toss up to me. 49ers and Baltimore toss up to me. Those are at the time of publication right at five and a half.
And those are some toss up lines. So I think the books are kind of thinking just about the same. As far as you point or anything, obviously, going to be a lot of shit jumping off the page at you. But anything mainly jumping off the page.
Yeah, I already mentioned it. I'm a mentioned in a second, but I like the Packers and week one against the Saints. And then those the only ones that I would be tentative on are the ones that against those NFC West teams where they are really good teams. But also have some rest disadvantages.
Those are the ones that depend on the line. If they're still significant enough underdogs or still close enough against teams tight lines against teams, then I think they should beat them. Yeah, maybe that's a different story. But overall, those might be the ones that I might stay away from.
All right. What appreciate spending on those two and not getting too cheese heady on the weekly. But at the same time, I'm probably hammering them every single week. Probably.
There's no problem about it. I know you. In some capacity, I know we're going to 100%. But as far as weekly totals go, not a whole lot you can draw.
And I'm guessing that these are going to have been moved around plenty with Aaron Rodgers being in the game. At the time of publication, they had a high of 52 and a half against the Chiefs in week nine and then a high of 15 and a half against the Saints in week one. Their low was 42 and a half against the Vikings in week 17. Everything else is right around that mid 40s tier.
If I was a bad man, I'm going to say that this is going to be closer to the 48 to 51 range with Aaron Rodgers back on the pack. You know, nothing crazy you can draw from their over under numbers. Obviously at home, they were great under team on the road. They were great over team.
Do we see the same with fans back in the stands? I don't know. I don't know that you can really draw all too much from it. I think it's going to be yet again another team that is going to be specific for them and specific for their opponent.
And when the stars align their hammer that totally they're over under. But for the time being, I'm not seeing anything jumping off the page of me that is just like, oh, that's way too low right now. Those are kind of kind of especially when injuries roll out, things roll out that those totals are sometimes more of a week. Yeah, that was one thing that really I caught onto myself last year was that I didn't have too much of a knowledge on if this game is definitely going over under.
I found myself betting the Packers team totals a lot more as a season more on because a lot of times I would be like, oh, I am so confident in Aaron Rodgers in the offense today. There was a couple of games where that was the case, but they scored 30 points and absolutely destroyed the other team on defensive side. So that's why I kind of stuck with those team totals. And now with some of these good defenses, I might have some games where I'm interested in the under.
But as is the case for a lot of my favorite teams, I don't like betting the under because you're in a spot where you need your favorite team to score, but it's going to bust your under. So that's where I typically stay away from them at. Hey, all about that value. Appreciate dishing out that you dishing out there, kid.
Last but certainly not least, before we keep moving here into the betting preview. Way too early. Week one, selection. I even got fucking asking, but I'm still going to fucking do it anyway.
They go into the, oh, yeah, you did already say twice. The Mercedes Benz Super Dome or whatever the hell that place is called now to play the Saints in week one as minus two, maybe two and a half, maybe by then minus three and a half favorites, regardless of what the line's at partner. Are you hammering in the pack? Are you fading in and taking the Saints?
I'm hammering in. And as I just mentioned, I am, you know, might be interested in this. I'm contrary to what I just said. But part of that is because last year they came into it was in Minnesota and put up over 40 points in week one last year.
I'm not sure if we see that again with fans here in the Rucka Super Dome, but, you know, I will be hammering the Packers spread and, you know, I might be hammering in some point totals as well on that week one game. What a shocker. Can't believe it. However, I'm on the same side as you.
I think the Packers are going to be incredibly valuable once again against the number this year. Any spot that you can find a hammerman hammerman, my friends, because I think they are going to be once again a money machine. Ten and six last two years, eight. Yes.
There you go. There you go. Keep it moving. Keep it grooving.
Wind total. Set it just a little while ago in the schedule breakdown that the Packers season wind total is currently set at 10 or 10 and a half wins depending on where you might find it. Now the interesting thing, my friends, is that we've been talking a lot about at the time of publication for some of the things that we utilize for the show. And at the time of publication, the Packers season wind total was at 10 and a half.
And now Aaron Rodgers was slated to potentially, it was almost 75, 80%. He wasn't going to be a packer at that point. We looked this morning and the Packers season wind total is now at 10 total wins with Aaron Rodgers on the pack, surprising that it has lost the hook and surprising that it is actually this close, minus 125 for the over plus 105 for the under. Obviously, that might tick back up with that line right there.
You might get that hook again, but it's very surprising that you lost the hook after we got the Aaron Rodgers news. And it's fair. That's just handicapping perspective. Now, for me, you already heard me.
I got 12 wins. No problem. And that's me being bearish in a lot of categories for the Packers. I got to take the over minus 125.
Now, I think even if it ticks up a little bit, we'll talk about the alternate value. I think it's worth a play as well. I definitely think that this total is set to low, but I could be crazy. I don't know what you think about it.
It might seem a little trappy. I still have seen a lot of people that maybe it's because they were on it so hard thinking that Rodgers was going to be gone. I've still seen a lot of people thinking that Aaron Rodgers is going to be bad because of everything that's happened and they're taking the under. It's hard to read.
It really is. But I mean, you know me, man, I'm going over and I'm taking some alternate value as I have done the last couple of years. And it has paid off. So safety-wise, I might stick with the 11.5 and still get at a nice plus 160 price, but I'm probably going to be tempted into that over 12.5 at plus 290.
But for safety concerns, I will stick with the 11.5 and get some nice plus money on it. Getting a little bit of chalk if you go down and you think they get right to get wins. That is at minus 160 right now. You also mentioned going over there, appreciate you on the assist their partner.
And then the under. If you're completely bearish on the pack, you think this is the year of regression. Well, my friend, it very well could be because the under 9 is in half is at plus 120. And the under 8.5 is at plus 230.
So if you're thinking it's a fade year for the pack, which I as a bear fan do not. Maybe play the under 9.5 or under 8.5, but I wouldn't go any lower than that. Books are in agreement with us as to the outlook of the Packers 2021 season. Right now to make the playoffs, the Packers are minus 270.
So a 270 dollar bet when you a hundred dollar and then to miss the playoffs at plus 215 right now. I highly highly doubt that happens. And I would suggest you stay away from that. Wait too much chalk to eat just in case some nonsense happens.
Right. But I doubt it. As far as division conference and Super Bowl 56 this year, the Packers are definitely in contention and they definitely have some value as far as these plays go. Packers are number one to win the NFC North.
And as much as I hate to say it, man, we've set it time and time again. When these lines are like this, as far as like a winner of a future bet or something, it's too fucking easy. It's too easy and they don't end up winning it. And I don't want to say that for the pack.
I don't want to put that juju on them because I think the North is all but there's to lose. But dog on, I mean, a minus 145 odds for a future bet. That just seems too damn good for something that might pay out in about 19 weeks, 20 weeks. Right.
And I think it's, I, it gives me more confidence actually because I feel like kind of what you're saying. Not a lot of people are going to be hammering a minus 145 future bet. Right. And that might flock people to some of these other teams in the North just to pour some money on it.
So it gives me a lot of confidence that that's the number that we're seeing here because, you know, while some people still might hammer that in, you know, I'm not trying to sweat out a minus 145 bet. I feel like minus 125 like that over 10 would be the only type of minus number that I would go up to as far as a future bet as that caliber. Because what did you say it was like six months that we would have to wait four, five months? Yeah, we got a month till the season starts in 20 week 18 weeks in there.
So I mean, for crying out loud, it would be forever and a day before that for those odds. So leave that alone. If you are with my partner, you think they're going to win the NFC. Maybe with me, you think the Rams.
I don't know. Either way, the Packers do have some value to win the NFC Championship this year plus 550. They are the second place team right now. So definitely some value worth a look if you think the Packers are going to be making a run deep again this year.
They just might get the NFC Championship victory this year. No, I'm not going to go there. That was a subtle jab. They just might actually get the NFC Championship win this year.
And the books think so too. They're tied for third right now with the Chiefs and, or they are actually behind the Chiefs and Bucks and tied with the Bills at plus 1200 odds to win Super Bowl 56. I think it's worth a look. I think potentially.
I don't necessarily know. I think that this could be a year that a team that no one is even questioning right now comes out of nowhere makes it to the Super Bowl. So we'll see. We'll see what happens neither here nor there.
But now you know some value in some of the odds. Future plays for the Packers' postseason. But we're good to generate. So if you're talking to line podcasts, we love props.
We love side plays. We love futures. That might take 20 weeks to pay out. Yes, sir.
We don't give a call. I got some big hat. We got to have some juice. Well, we dug deep in Ladies and Gentlemen.
We have six additional side bets that we have found for the Packers this year that just might have some value. If you didn't read my blog yesterday, I wrote about even Rodgers being the repeat MVP. I think it would just be the perfect cherry on top of the cake that has been this entire offseason. He gets the MVP again and then writes off into the sunset with his next team and finishes his career.
It's got how I envision it happening in my mind. But he's only second behind my homes right now plus 1000. And I think that is plenty fine on to buy in for a repeat MVP here for QB 12. Yeah, I like it, man.
I'm, you know, the biggest worry for me is that my homes could have a 50 touchdown season. Rodgers could duplicate a season from last year. So the biggest work for me would still be missing homes over there going way, way off and stealing that MVP away from him. So, yeah, I mean, hey, man, I'm way too biased.
So take it for what it's worth. But I'll probably hammer it in. There you go. I won some money on last year.