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We hope you enjoy. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, Jacksonville Jaguars fans, fans of the NFL Shield, everybody in between. For and wide. Welcome in to episode number 104 of the Talking the Line podcast.
And as always, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful August 17th, 2021. Now, before we talk everything, do fall and beyond, please take a few moments too. Smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the TTL pod on. If you weren't awake, you are now and if you're watching on YouTube, you might as well hit that notification bell as well.
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You will locate all of the TTL crews, social content, additional platforms and the Talking the Line dot com website so you can consume all of that. However, and whenever you please. Ladies and gentlemen, beautiful gambling people, NFL fans, do-vall fans, everybody joining us on today's show. I am your humble host, Colton, cold 45, Sroga, and it is my pleasure to get things started today.
And once again, thank you so much for choosing to stop by the Talking the Line podcast and hang out with me and my partner for just about an hour and a half out of your day today. Without further ado, let me bring in that aforementioned partner, a young man who is thrilled by his White Sox 5-2 victory last night over the Oakland Athletics coming in again today. Chris Bassett, facing Reynaldo Lopez is a little bit more tentative on Reynaldo, but he thinks they get the job done once again to not guarantee you, right? And you know, just keeps piling on the wind so he can have a great mentality, segwaying him into the MLB postseason and into his packer season.
Without further ado, the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr. Riley, R. Maggueson. Partner, how you doing over the day, pal?
My man, I am doing pretty damn fantastic. We've got an exciting team coming our way today. And I'm excited about a team that I feel like whenever this fanbase has a little bit of hope, it injects a little bit of energy within the rest of the league. And I think we've got that this year and the next decade or so.
So I'm excited to talk about this team and where they might go this year and beyond, but you know, a lot of question marks. You might as well get locked in. I'm going to do that about 30 times on today's show because it is the only time that I will be freely able to do it. And nobody can say shit about it.
Yeah, I'm excited to talk about these Jags here today too. Obviously Trevor Lawrence, number one overall pick coming in. They have a great backfield. Obviously picked up Travis ETN2.
We'll talk about all of that. We'll talk about some of the additions and losses in the White receiver room. We'll talk everything offensive for the Jags. We'll talk everything defensively for the Jags too.
We'll dive into the coaching staff, brand new coaching staff, all across the board. Got plenty to analyze on that front. Then we'll dive into the full schedule. We'll talk about some of their games that we think they have a shot of winning.
Some of the games are going to be a little bit difficult. And obviously we'll give you our full season projection where we see them landing within the division and without their division. We will also dive into the full betting season preview for these Jags. I do believe that finally after a few brutal years, the Jags are going to have some betting value this year.
Not only on their spreads, but on their weekly game totals and also maybe some early look ahead future plays you might want to hammer in now. So make sure you stick around for the third segment. We will be breaking down everything betting wise for do. And then the fourth and final segment of the day, our best fantasy advice start stash or pass.
You know the drill actually some solid fantasy value coming out of Jacksonville this year. So I got plenty to talk about there and I know my partner does too. Outside of that before we get into the team of the day and get things rocking rolling down the road partner, any major updates major news, anything you got off the top of the dome? Well, if you're tuning in live, you probably already saw it, but sticking with this team.
Mr. Tim Tebow is on the release. He's out of the chopping black. We'll see, you know, maybe they bring him back in for a little consultation consultation.
You know, a little bit of help in the locker room. Who knows, but he's out of town. He's out of town. If you guys have been watching the Daily Show, you know, I was super high on Tebow, but he's out of there.
No questions about it. I told you so partner. But tell me so. I just had a lot of faith in the young man or the old man now and I actually didn't get it done.
I was before we saw some of the clips from the other day. After that, I was certain that he was gone. I actually had some optimism that maybe they might find some type of gadget use for him aside from the strict tight end. But yeah, definitely did not look good in that preseason game.
Well, when he got a ball taken a perfectly thrown pass on a perfect curl route and he got that ball intercepted by his own teammate. That kind of just put the bow on top of it all for me. And hey, T's and P's to Tim Tebow. Hopefully you can slot in somewhere.
We'd love to see you in the league, but it's definitely not going to be in the world. The world does need a good Tim Tebow. So without further ado, let's get into that aforementioned team. There's all the updates, everything we got.
Let's get into it. Today's team of the day, the Jacksonville Jaguars, you know the drill first segment of the day coming up live in prime time. We're going to get into the entire team, both offensively, defensively and the coaching staff in today's full team breakdown. Well, as always, folks, strap on in.
Get your coffee ready. Cheers to you as well. If you are out there, cheers to you also, partner. Cheers to a good show.
Let's fucking do it. Let's get rockin' around. Offensive side of the ball. As always, kicking it off.
Hear me with the P losses offensively for Duval going into 2021. They let one QB go, Mike Glennon. Obviously nothing crazy to write home about. So now it looks like they're going to depend on Lawrence and Gardner Minshupa.
Maybe even not Minshupa. We'll see what happens there. Let a handful of running backs go, but my partner will tell you they backfield that position pretty well. But, you know, I'm not too high on that because I'm high on our man James Robinson.
Roll birds. I was hoping he would get some good work here this year, but seems he might compete for touches. But they let go Raikel Armstead, Chris Thompson, and Dee Dee Westbrook. Raikel Armstead was supposed to be James Robinson.
He just got hurt early before the year. James Robinson slotted in, and he became the legend he is. The top 100 player in the NFL. James is quite...
Did he get that? He did get that. He did get that. Awesome to James Robinson.
Always love to see a bird. Birds supporting birds, baby. Back to birds all the way. Roll birds.
Keep it moving. Wide receivers. Let two go. Not the most important ones you need to.
Actually three go. I apologize. Dee Dee Westbrook is a wide receiver. Not running back.
I wrote that wrong. They let go Chris Conley and Keel and Cole as well. Not the biggest names to write home about, but definitely some solid depth piece. In that offense.
But I think they were able to fill that out as well. And then they let three tight ends go. Tyler Eiffert, he's really just battled so many injuries over the last few years. I think his career is kind of getting close to the end, or maybe that third string tight end segregation.
Eric Salbert tight end as well. And then Josh Oliver. And then one offensive tackle. Joe Giles Harris.
So 10 guys in general. Most of them skill position players. But as you will soon lay down here, partner, they will be able to back for a lot of those skill positions that they did let go. So if you could be so kind, let us know about those players that I keep hitting at.
Alrighty. So not some... not any additions you need to be scoffing at here. A couple guys that should be helping this team right away.
Not going to be taking this team over the top by any means. But decent additions nonetheless. They did bring in Marvin Jones, wide receiver from Detroit. Keeps him with his old offensive coordinator that will talk about a little bit there.
Bevel. He is going to be getting some touches in this offense. No question. Chris Mann hurts.
Going to be either the second tight end or the third one. Probably going to be number two tight end. And then Carlos Heide as my partner mentioned is going to be coming in. Not sure what his role is going to be because in addition to him, they also picked up Travis Etienne in the first round, later in the first round.
Obviously first overall picked Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. And then in the second round, they actually took a guy that might not be the start of this year. But seems like he's in there plans for the next decade or so. A Walker Little, offensive tackle out of Stanford.
Then they took a handful of defensive guys after that second round. And then next offensive player off the board was not until the fifth round. Tight end Luke Farrell out of Ohio State. Probably going to be that number three tight end.
And then Jalen Camp, wide receiver in the sixth round. Unclear if he's going to make the roster. There's a lot of guys vying for those fourth and fifth wide receiver spots. So I think he's got a good shot.
But still pretty unclear. But that about does it for the offensive side of the ball, my friend. Show enough. Now, before we give you our predictions offensive wise kind of overall outlook here in 2021.
Let me lay down a few 2020 stats you guys should know about. Now, don't read too much into these. Obviously, we have a brand new coaching staff. It's going to be a lot of changes in Duval.
Either way, still a lot of opportunity for improvement upon these numbers. They averaged 5.2 yards per play offensively last year than being a Jax. Rush the ball, 33.80% of the time. Actually really low with the story and the script that came behind James Robinson and then some of the other backs in that backfield passed on 66.20% of plays.
Had a completion percentage across the board. You know, they kind of had that QB carousel, Jake Luton, Mike Lennon, and then also Minshu as well. 62.82% across the board. On third downs, they converted that a 40.58% clip.
So definitely need to see some improvement there. I think Urban will be able to do that with the spread offense. But a little bit of something I'll talk about there in a minute too. In the red zone, not bad.
Better than 50%. They read 60 in exact 60.00% clip in the red zone. So like I'm to stay right around there, maybe even improve upon that a little bit. Obviously with James Robinson, his ability in the goal line.
Now you add Travis ETN and then Carlos Hyde has always been proving around the goal line throughout the course of his career. So three guys who I think are going to be plenty valuable within the red zone. And we'll talk about their fantasy value as well because that goal line work is going to be a large of all of these guys. Now, as far as the offense goes here, this is the highest paid offensive line in the NFL.
However, exact offensive line returning from 2020. And in 2020, they ranked 19th against the pass and ranked 25th against the rush. So I'll let you be the judge if it's the right move for the Jags or not there. But they bring him back.
Taylor, Can, Linder, Robinson and Norwell all coming up. Looks like Trevor Lawrence is going to be QB1. Obviously Urban Meyer flirting around with all maybe Minshew will be the starter. I doubt that happens.
Hopefully, Minshew can get a good starting spot somewhere because he deserves. He really, really deserves it. Then you have the running back room, talked about him, James Robinson backed up by Travis ETN and then also Carlos Hyde looks like potentially Travis ETN could turn into a steady receiving back or maybe even turn it into a running receiver, if you will. A combination of kind of the both.
I think he's going to get a lot of that work in the spread offense from Urban Meyer. Then you have another bird, hashtag roll birds, James O'Shaughnesser. He looks like he's going to get the tight end start. Great for him.
That dude is electrifying football player, even electrifying human being. He is a great, great human being. Haven't seen him in a lot of years, but that dude is a good, good dude. And then their wide receiver room, solid as well.
You talked about Marvin Jones rejoining Darryl Bevel from their years together in Detroit. Levisca Chanal, one of the guys I'm actually really, really high on. I had him on my fantasy team all last year. I think we see some improvement from him this year.
And then DJ Chart coming back had a huge 2019 and then kind of a lackluster 2020 battle, a little bit of injury, battle some stuff. Hopefully he can come back and be a solid number one option for Lawrence. But in my mind, this receiving court really does lack a number one option because outside of that, right now it looks like they'll have Philip door set back and those guys up and then also behind him, Colin Johnson. Those are the top guys on the depth start right now.
Obviously it can change a lot, but you would first see and we'll talk about this later. Obviously everybody's thinking that Trevor Lawrence is going to come in and be electrifying offensive. Okay, the year candidate right off the bat and I wouldn't disagree with you. He's great.
He's an awesome quarterback. We saw it in Clemson. Well, I mean, no question about it, but I don't know if this receiving court is going to give him enough to be able to consistently 300 plus 325 plus every single game in order to put him in the running. And we all know NFL honors awards are based off of numbers.
So I think that's one of the biggest things that is the biggest question mark in my mind. Are these receivers going to be able to produce? However, I don't think the running game has any issues. The running game will all three guys I think will produce the problem is is that now James Robinson, we don't know what we're going to see from him.
He obviously will be the workhorse will get the bulk of the workload. But how much really is he going to get hawked from ETN? Is ETN going to take all of his passing abilities? Is that going to take away his PPR workload?
Well, obviously talk about all of that in fantasy, but there's a lot of question marks as far as who is going to get the work from week to week. That's my opinion as far as offensively and offensive line. I didn't mention them. I think it's a little bit risky than being the number one offensive line coming in at $53.40 million cap hit for the Jaguars.
Series. I don't know. That's my opinion partner. I'll put a cap on it for now.
What do you think offensively here for the Jags going in 2021? Yeah, to start with that offensive line, man, it is so bizarre that they are the number one highest paid offensive line unit here. It does give me optimism that it's the full squad coming back. And now I hope that they have a little bit of rejuvenation that I don't know, one win football team and they're having to protect for guys like Mike Glennon and Luton.
So that gives me optimism that they're going to be a little bit more energized this year. I like the pickup that they made in the second round off of the tackle. I already blanked on his name. Excuse me, Walker Little.
I like that addition. Don't know what we're going to see from him this year. I'm actually pretty high in this wide receiver room too, man. I think DJ Chark gets back to it.
I mean, you have to think like some of these guys have had some brutal, brutal quarterbacks trying to throw them all the last couple of years and you know, with some of that. Not Marvin Jones. I'm talking more. I'm talking more about DJ Chark.
Okay. Stay in with me. Yeah. Sorry.
Okay. And I think Marvin Jones, you know, I don't love him. You know, he's not a guy that week to week is going to be putting up ever, you know, consistent numbers, but he'll be a boomer bus guy. So those week where he has, you know, big weeks and comes to, comes to the stadium ready to roll.
I like that. But I think DJ Chark has a big bounce back this year. Health wise and with an actual steady quarterback. And I like Leviscus Chanel.
He came out at the end of the season. You know, he was in there, I believe 15 games, at least if not all 16. And the end of the season, he really kind of broke out. And once again, with a consistent guy throwing in the ball, I really like what I'm going to see there.
And like you, I think, I think it's kind of a jackknife. He's going to get the ball out of the backfield a lot. But I think they're also just going to find ways to get him the ball in space. He is a big play away to happen.
And I think everybody might is going to figure out how to use in the right way. It's tight end room, you know, being a fellow bird, ISU alum. I love James O'Shaughnessy. As far as, you know, the passing game, I, you know, it leaves a little bit to be desired.
So I'm not sure what we see from them, but overall, man, I love the running back room. And I'm a little higher on this receiving core than a lot of people are. If anything happens to these top three guys, I do not like that. That's not there for sure.
So really the concern for me is do we see an offensive line that comes anywhere near living? I don't need them to be the number one actual best offensive line, but you know, you have to at least be middle of the pack consistently. If not higher, I mean, if you're the number one offensive line, you should be, or paid the number one offensive line. You should be in the top 10 at least.
But it's clear that we probably won't see that. So, you know, compared to what we saw last year, at least need to be top half. So if that's not the case, then they might have some struggles, but, you know, I'm optimistic here. All right.
Optimistic on the receiver room. But kind of across the board offensively, me and Max both have the same outlook and are really excited in general to see what they have to do offensively. Let's put a cap on the offense with some key rankings courtesy of the guys over at SFA and then we'll rock and roll on over to the defensive side of the ball. Quarterback room might be a little surprising to you.
Comes in ranked as the 19th unit in the NFL right now. You think, Oh my gosh, Trevor Lawrence number one overall pick. That should be top five. Yeah, rookie quarterback still got to prove themselves saying this is still an unproven offense.
This is still a brand new coaching staff. This is still the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm sorry, Jack. I'm sorry.
All right. I'm sorry. However, offensive line. I keep saying it comes in ranked as the 23rd unit in the league.
Very far cry from their payroll. I think that they can improve upon that. But there's obviously a lot of question marks from what we saw last year, both pass and rush wise running back room comes in right in the middle of the pack a little bit better than middle of the pack 14th overall. Definitely have opportunity to crack the top 10 if Robinson produces again and if ETN can produce in more of a limited work share.
Obviously he saw 1500 yards 13 plus touchdowns in three of his last seasons. I do believe it climbs him. So it's going to be a little bit of an adjustment here in the NFL and then receivers. I think that the guys over at SFA are on my side, not necessarily so much on your 26th ranked unit.
It's definitely a fair ranking with kind of the question marks coming in D.J. who knows what he's going to have in 2021 and then just these guys without without really having a clear cut number one receiver that you can say, yeah, that guy's going to have at least 70 to 100 every single week. It's just hard to really put a good ranking on him. I think that they can crack the top.
Yeah. Yeah. I think they could. But right now I'm about right in the fall.
Yeah, I can't disrespect that ranking whatsoever. I would definitely say so. Maybe not a clear cut number one receiver, but good enough to get that, you know, at least that ranking closer to the middle of the pack. Show enough.
Well, let's move on over to the defensive side of the ball. And as always, we'll kick it off with Key Losses and Additions. Part of you be so kind. Get it started with the Key Losses on the defensive side of the ball.
Alrighty. I really don't have too much to write home here. There's a lot of guys that played either, you know, two, three games or didn't really play at all. So I'm not even going to mention those guys.
They don't really bear mentioning four guys that they did lose that had played a role last year. Joe Schobert played 16 games. He was traded this off season for a six round pick. Aaron Lynch off the edge.
He played eight games last year. Was not a huge impact guy last year. DJ Hayden quarterback played five games for them. Once again, not a huge impact guy.
And Doug Middleton, safety played 10 games. So aside from that, a lot of guys that saw time here and there, but nobody that really made any huge impact. Joe Schobert is really the only guy that was a key player on this defense from last year. So, you know, I believe they backfilled some, uh, some of these spots and did more than that.
I was what you're about to say. Sorry, I'm fucking fumbling over here. Absolutely. Schobert was kind of the main loss.
Just really anything to put it in your words, the only guy that really you needed to write home about as far as defensive loss here. I know we're talking about NFL, but I wanted to mention this real quick before I get into the game. I'm not going to the defensive editions. The Grizzlies just picked up Pat Bev and they get okay coming on over from the clips.
What's he going to do? They've already shipped him out of town to the Timberwolves for Jared Culver and Juan Cho, Hernan Gomez. So, obviously, the Grizzlies don't want Pat Bev either. They say, see you later, head on over to Minnesota.
I know that has nothing to do with the price of corn, bro. I like that type of stuff. That was awfully interesting that Pat Bev just got dealt in his now in another trade, not even a week later. So, there you go.
All right. Into the defensive editions here for the Jax. You're right, partner. They did backfill a lot of those positions and some of the guys that might have remained on the team, kind of got lapped by some of the guys that got brought in either via free agency, the trade market, or through the draft.
The biggest addition in my mind is going to be Shaquille Griffin coming in from Seattle. Obviously, we know the story between him and his brothers, Kim. Defensive back, if you didn't know, coming in at $13.3 million this year out of free agency. Ray Sean Jenkins, they brought in a one-year deal, safety, $8.8 million.
Roy Robertson Harris, interior defensive line. We'll talk about him in just a minute here, $7.7 million deal. Malcolm Brown also interior defensive line, and they picked him up via a trade. Jamal Agnew, another defensive back at $4.79 million.
Jihad Ward, another interior guy on the defensive line, $2.5 million and then Rudy Ford. Looks like they're going to try and add some serious depth to the safety room. Brought him in at $2.1 million. They didn't go crazy over the top defensively in the draft.
It was pretty balanced. I don't know how fast of an impact these guys make here as well, much like my partner said for the offensive editions. They brought in ties, Campbell defensive back out of Georgia. He was solid at Georgia, so I think he could make an impact.
I just don't know how soon that will be. Andrew Sisko, another safety out of Syracuse. So obviously that was a little bit of an issue for the Jags last year in the deep backfield, so they wanted to get some good depth there. J.
Too Faele, defensive tackle out of USC, and then Jordan Smith. I was a big fan of UAB football last year. Joel Smith was a game record defensive end. I think that's a big pick up for them and I think that they can work him.
And Joe Cohen being a new here defensive coordinator, I think that he'll have some success with some of these rookie guys coming in on the defensive side of the ball. So that does it for the key additions. Overall, when you look at the draft here for the Jags, I wouldn't say it's a loss draft by any means. Obviously you can't say that with QB1 and then Travis ETN.
Now some of the picks are a little bit questionable. That is one thing I would say. I don't know if they got the needs necessarily that they really needed to. Maybe they could have got a number one receiver.
Maybe they could have made that move. They didn't necessarily need ETN. But either way, not the worst outlook overall. Before we give you our full defensive outlooks, you're going into 2021.
Let me once again give you those 2020 stats. The Jags. Not so great. A lot of opponents to average 6.3 yards per play last year and an opponent completion percentage of 69.42%.
So we want to see both of those numbers come way down, but I think they do have the defense to be able to do that. Opponents converted on third down at 43.43% of the time. And then in the red zone need this to come way down. Opponents scored at 63.49% of the time.
I'd like to see right around 55.50% if you can get that. Obviously with the PA, play action, PSM, pre-snap motion, everything that happens in today's NFL offense. It's extremely hard to stop a team once they get 20 yards in in, especially 10 yards in for crying out loud. So obviously it's going to be hard to get right around 50.
But I think that they improve upon that this year. They have Allen, Brown, Robertson, Harris, and Chison all on the defensive line. Schobert's out of town, but they did replace him, remind me off the top of my head. They didn't give them anything in the trade.
It looks like Damien Wilson might be the starter. So they didn't get anything in the trade. But then obviously Miles Jack. Miles Jack is a dog and half.
I think they should have been in the league. He's still only 25 years old. Yeah, he's a dog and half. He's only starting to reach his prime right now.
She killed Griffin on the outside. Trey Herndon. No, something Herndon. Trey Herndon is the tight end.
I want to make sure I say that right. Herndon is one second. Ladies and gentlemen, you just hold yourself at his straight. That is straight.
That is straight. We have two Trey Herndon in the league. One is was a former Titan for the Jets. Not sure if he's still there.
Not might still be. But now we also have Trey Herndon defensive back for the Jacksonville Jaguars and then also Henderson opposite side of those two guys. And he got Jenkins and Wilson in the deep backfield left a little bit to be desired in 2020. So they obviously brought in a shitload of deep backfield guys via the free agency market and also via the draft.
So overall, in my mind, I think that this front seven is going to be pretty solid. The defensive line might struggle a little bit generating pressure, but I think that with having Miles Jack and then whoever is next to him, they'll be able to bring five guys, maybe even six guys from time to time and they'll be able to have some success. As far as the secondary goes, I'm middle of the pack on them. I wouldn't say they're going to have a crazy season, but they have definite potential to crack top 15 top 12 unit in my mind if they play to their full potential.
But that's also going to boil down to the deep secondary. And if those guys are going to be able to limit some of those ripped the top off the defense type plays overall in my mind, I think that this unit may be 20th ranked unit in the league somewhere right around that definitely. And that's very, very tentative. I mean, I obviously think that they have plenty of capabilities to improve upon that, but I would say the right around 20 to 25th ranked unit in my mind right now.
I'm pretty optimistic about this team. I'm not saying they're going to be top five top 10 defense. I'm kind of right around where you are, but I like some of these additions. You know, we talked about Miles Jack.
He is an absolute dog. He might not even have played his best year yet. This year could be his best season. He's 25, 26 years old.
They get Josh Allen back. He missed half the year last year. This is his third season. He was not totally healthy even when he was there.
He had double digit sex in his rookie year. I think he could have a huge year and help. Like you said, there's a lot of pressure. There's a lot to be desired, but I think he might be the one that takes him over the edge.
If he struggles or gets injured, then there's definitely going to be a lack of pressure, but I think he's going to be really good once again here. The secondary is a little bit of a concern for me, but I like the moves that they made. I'm not saying they're pro-bullers, all-pro guys, but who they replaced being some very questionable assets as far as their positions. I think it's not just a small upgrade.
I think compared to what they had, it is actually a decent size upgrade there. I'm pretty optimistic about it. I'm kind of middle-of-pack defense. I think there's going to be some games where they kind of surprise people and have a really solid defensive game.
They honestly did that a couple times last year, and maybe it was just because it was a game in the Lambo against my Packers. The defense last year was worse last year, and they gave us some fits all game long. The Packers pulled the rabbit out of their hat if I'm being totally honest. Maybe all of this bias is because of an all-hole-sworthy-packer game.
They had some other games that they were solid defensively or at least better than you would expect, keeping some teams with good offenses under 30 points, which doesn't say much, but now with all these additions, I think they could be decent defense and keep this team in a lot of games. Still a lot of holes, but I think they really did improve this defense quite a bit here. They definitely did, but I'm still going to stick with right away. I'm nervous how much I'm liking this whole round.
That's a thing. It's so hard for fans of do-ball to get excited about things from time to time. They have some exciting stuff on the horizon going into 2021, but nonetheless, let's put cap on the defensive side of the ball with the positional rankings. Front seven, the guys over at SFA, not high on them at all, 31st ranked unit in the league.
I unfortunately would have to agree with them. I think they can generate pressure from time to time, but I just don't think they're going to be able to generate the pressure on the level that they need to be able to make some of those key turnovers, key stops, key sacks, stuff like that. And then the secondary 26 ranked unit in the league. Obviously both units have plenty of room to improve upon those numbers, but just without any known cohesion, any real known how these guys are going to perform.
Some of them coming from complete different weather atmospheres, all types of different stuff. So I think those are fair rankings. Definitely plenty of room to improve upon them, but we'll see what happens across the board. Yeah, I can't hit on the rankings.
I do think they will finish higher than that. Like I said, I'm not saying top 10 defense, but I've got some optimism over here. Top 20 sounds like a good spot for me. Let's move in to the coaching staff and wrap up everything here, team, breakdown, brand new coaching staff all across the board head coach, OC and DC.
You've heard us talk about all of them now at this point, but just in case you missed it at all, new head coach, Urban Meyer, making the jump from college officially. Going to be very interesting what we see from him because Urban has always been known as the coach as it's my way or the highway. It really doesn't fit his offense to his players. He likes to just make his players fit into his offense.
So we'll see also with that spread has the capabilities in the NFL that it did at the collegiate level, but we started to kind of even see it phase out at the collegiate level, how he was running it with some of the kind of brutal beats that his team took at the end of his tenure. So there's a lot of question marks in my mind. I think he has a successful jump. I mean, the last five college coaches that we've seen made the jump have been not crazy, but have been better than mediocre.
So I think he has a good opportunity and it looks like he's going to get at least three, four years here if your one is going to be bad. Yeah, you're never talking about that. Jaguar is even when it's bad. They don't fire coaches right away.
Exactly. So we have plenty of time here and then offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevel. I think he'll have plenty of time too. I think he'll at least give him two years, especially with this brand new offense and your shiny new toy Trevor Lawrence.
I don't know and something that Warren Sharp indicated quite heavily is that the Lions year over year have been a great first quarter team, a great first quarter team to bet on and then from the second through the fourth quarter of the game, they're a great team to bet against. So is that going to carry over to Jacksonville? Obviously, we didn't see the most high powered offense in Detroit over the course of the last three years. So is Bevel going to be able to really utilize these guys, these premier names like he needs to or is it going to kind of be like that Lions offense?
It kind of sputters from time to time. I don't know. We'll see exactly what happens there. And then last but not least, defensive coordinator Joe Colin brand new as well.
Like I said, he's been solid in the past with rookies developing players. I think he'll be able to develop a lot of these guys and really get some cohesion going. It might lean into your side of this defense really gets improving and maybe cracks that top 20, maybe even cracks the top 15. That would be pretty sweet to see for the Jags.
That'll be insane. That's the entire new coaching staff. Obviously, no, we're going to break down all the assistance and everything like that. So if you respect that, sorry, hate to tell you're not coming today, but that does it.
Full team breakdown coaching staff. Let's get into the entire schedule breakdown. As always, my friend, I'll kick things off here. Breaking down.
Well, not necessarily breaking down. Just telling you guys about the weekly match ups. First things first, they do have their bi-week in week seven. They relatively easy start to the season.
They play the Texans in Houston in week one. Then they come back for two homestants against the Broncos and the Cardinals. Then they go back on the road to the Bengals. Week five and six before the bi.
They play the Titans and the Dolphins at home. Dolphus and London. In London, I apologize. So it is not a home game.
I forgot to read a little at London or right below there. I got to check the old notes. And then come out of the bi in week seven with a plus eight rest advantage in Seattle against the Seahawks. Then week nine, they come back home to play the Bills.
Then go back on the road to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Colts. Then back home to play the 49ers. That in my mind, weeks eight to 11 is the hardest streak that the Jags are going to see. Actually weeks eight through fourteen.
Twelve won't be bad. They play the Falcons in Duval. But then thirteen and fourteen are both on the road against the Rams and the Titans. So week eight through fourteen is going to be real difficult in my mind for them.
They're going to have to prove a lot then and there. But they get to week fifteen and sixteen and they get the Texans again and then they get the Jets. So not too bad. But then they close out their season on the road in New England and then they come back home to close out their season against the Colts.
So not too bad to start the season. In my mind, they have a very, very, very, very solid shot to go four and two in those first six games. Very solid shot. I think they could potentially get the, and we'll talk about the Texans here in a minute, but I think they get the Texans, the Bengals, either or between the Cardinals or the Broncos and they get the Titans in that first one.
That's a hell of a segue. Let's talk about their success within the AFC South Division. Now based on their preseason game, even though they got torched out of the water by the Browns and started, it's a preseason. Yeah, who gives a shit?
Yep. They had some serious movement as far as their odds. They were on plus sixteen hundred and they have now moved down to plus nine hundred. I think six hundred.
Plus six hundred. So they moved severely with what some of the odds makers saw on the field and from what some of the money fluctuations happened. So we'll talk about all that here in a little while. But as far as the AFC South goes, I think they get both against the Texans.
Yep. I'm not worried about that at all. I think they lose both against the Colts though, however. And then I think they split with the Titans.
I do believe they get that first matchup in week five with the Titans because that is in Jacksonville and they're coming in the jags being on a three day rest advantage after playing a Thursday night game and a pretty cupcake Thursday night game in the Bengals. If I do say so myself. So I see them getting that win and then potentially getting against the fans. I mean the fans are going to be hard, but it could be very, very anyway.
So I say that and that could be five in one to start the season, but I like four and two to start the season. Okay. But in the AFC South, I'm going three and three. Three and three AFC South record for the jags.
I can't add too much. I think I'm right there with you that Tennessee one is obviously going to be tough. Give it up to win against the Texans. I think I'm leaning with you and the two losses to the Colts.
And I'll take what you're putting down with that home when it gets to Titans. Not only that, you know, the Titans have had a lot of success the last couple of years. Titans really, really get into their form on the back half of that in their seasons, the last couple of seasons when the Tana Hills have been at the helm. So they be kind of see something similar there.
I'm not saying that Titans struggle out of the gates, but I think that's still a spot where the jags can get them. So I will stick with you and say three and three my crown. Right. So I'm going to be doing these two teams last year.
It did in 33 to 30. So rather interesting Titans did win 33 to 30, but the jags battle back in the fourth quarter to make that a 30 30 game. So a game flip script, in my opinion, this year. All right.
Well, we talked about the Colts yesterday. So they're obviously in the same division. They're going to obviously have the same main eight non-divisional opponents coming out of the AFC East and the NFC West. NFC West is going to be extremely brutal for me.
You know, early in the season, I already said it is going to come down to the Cardinals or the Broncos for me. From what I saw from the Broncos, not granted, it was preseason game one, but I was already high on their defense about Miller coming back. Some of the key additions they made, my boy Kyle Filler going over there, my man Patrick Sertane. I was already high on them and then they balled out like they did against the Vikings and I said, oh shit.
So of those two games, I give them the jags more of a shot against the Cardinals. So I would say they go one in three with a very, very, very tight game against the 49ers. I think that's their tightest game. One in three in the NFC West and in the AFC East, I will give them, oh man, because that dolphins game, that dolphins game is also so I would either go two and two or one in three that dolphins game is going to loom very large in London.
I don't know why you're giving your predictions. I can look up the jags London record here too. I was looking up earlier actually. I don't know if you can still look it up because it wasn't super clear.
It's close to 500 if I'm not mistaken. But you know, I, as far as the NFC West, I will give them one win and it's going to be either the Cardinals or the Seahawks. They get that eight game rested, managing against the Seahawks coming out of the bi-week, but it isn't Seattle. So I lean towards the Cardinals, but that is going to be a shootout in week three there.
So I'll give them one win out of the NFC West one way or another. And then in the NFC East, I will also go with two wins and I'm definitely giving them the one in against the Jets there. And then I am on the fence as far as the dolphins and Patriots, but I think I will give them one win in either one of those two games. So I'll go to two and two and I'm leaning towards the one in London against the dolphins.
You know, I don't know if the dolphins have gone over there too much. Maybe we'll find that out in a second. But I like the Jaguars chances in London this year and they get it right ahead of a bi-week. So I'm feeling pretty good about that one.
So I'll say two and two on the AFC East. Yeah, Jags have had seven there. They're three and four. And then Miami have had four there.
They're one and three. Okay. Last one 2017. Okay.
Last one 2017 for Miami and then last one for the Jags was 2019. So Jacksonville comes in the eighth official London game for them, gets a 500 record. It can't be over there, right? The Finns in their fifth move to one and four.
I'm taking that action actually. I'm going to take it. I'm going to two. I'm saying they win that London game.
All right. Let's keep it moving along. Final three games on the schedule that are not the main eight non-divisional or the divisional games. We have the bangles, the Broncos and the Falcons.
I give them two and one straight up. I don't have to do much thinking about that. I think they're able to take care of business in Cincinnati. I don't think as much as I hate to say it, I don't think that this is the year we see Joey B breakout yet.
I don't think he's not to his level. He's going to have a good year, but not to what we're all expecting. And I think that's going to cause the firing of Zach Taylor. So early hot predictions on a completely opposite team, but I think they get the win against the bangles.
I believe they get the win against the Atlanta Falcons. I don't think Arthur Smith or Dean Pease is going to have enough of success. Now, if by some random chance Arthur Smith does have a huge amount of success in Atlanta plus 1400 for coach of the year, not unworthy. Look, but we're not talking about the Falcons.
I also think they lose to the Broncos. That will come down to really defensive game. I think that game ends like 36, 30 last second Broncos. Something crazy happens.
Maybe, maybe not. I don't know, but I think that that's going to be the one game that they don't get early on in the season. I think that Vic Fangio will have that defense dialed up to confuse the absolute shit out of Trevor Lawrence. So, and you got to remember too, I found it out with Justin Fields.
These guys are coming from college to where they never came off the field. They never got in a huddle. Everybody stands here and we all look to the sidelines. We get the five, 17 different play calls and then Lawrence comes back.
Everybody sees it. Alright, ready? And that's it. Now they have to get play calls in the year.
Be able to communicate that to all of their teammates. Be able to go to the line of scrimmage, read the defense, make an audible if necessary, target a hot route if necessary. They have to make all that shit win in college. They really didn't have to do that.
They had a lot of help on that front. So you got to remember that too. So all that being said, I think they go two in one remaining. Yeah, I guess I'm kind of right in line with you.
What's a bangles? Yeah, so I think they get that one against bangles. You spoke my language. I mentioned Zach Taylor as the first coach fired.
That might be the straw that breaks the camel's back on that one. I would say. And I will also take him on a win over the Falcons. If this game against the Broncos was later in the year, I might be interested, but kind of half the reason that you mentioned the Broncos being a really good defense in our opinions.
I will give that one to the Broncos. The one thing that kind of hesitating. That seems like a weird weather type of home field advantage split going from Denver to Jacksonville going from Mile High over to Jacksonville and the humid monkey type stuff there. That still is in September.
So maybe that is enough, but I'll give him two in one. So we're lined up three and three in the south, one and three in the east, two and two in the west and the two in the AFC. Oh, I'm sorry. Two in two in the AFCs, one and three in the west and then two in one outside.
So that partner, that's seven. That's eight nine. That's eight nine three four five six seven eight three three three and three, one and three, two and one. That is eight nine.
I know my math usually ducks on the show. I did that one four times in my head. I had to make sure I told you I was nervous that I liked this roster that much, man. So that just opened an entirely new can of worms that we will talk about in the betting preview here in just a second.
We're about to get into that segment and rock through that. I was on the under originally totals at six and a half. I got some fucking thinking to do over the next three minutes here. The problem is I'm gonna have to do that thinking as I'm talking to you guys.
So let's keep it rolling here. Put a cherry on top of the banana split that has been the full schedule breakdown. How about that? Last but certainly not least a little bit of the rest and prep inequalities for the Jacksonville Jaguars here.
Once again, courtesy of the guys over at SFA putting these in nice perfect little boxes for us so we can utilize them as we need as always. Once again, shout out to sharp football analysis for some of the key stats and trends that we use on the daily show. Obviously, we use other stuff. We got other sites.
We have our own knowledge and stuff, but I mean the wealth of knowledge that we have gained from reading the SFA preview. It's just bar none bar none. But move right along. They play three opponents that have over a week to prep, but they also play three opponents that have less than a week to prep.
So negated there. They have three games they play where they're on a rest disadvantage, but they also play three games where they have a rest advantage. So negated there once again. They play one game on a short week on the road and then they play zero games off a road Sunday night or Monday night football game.
Not surprising. Not quite the year that we're going to see the Jags in Sunday night. This is a Thursday night team I've ever seen. Yeah, getting very close to moving on into some of those prime times, but we'll have to see what happens in 2021.
But there you go. Just kind of an outlook there or something to think about when you're betting on them. They will have some rest advantages that are probably going to play into. It's the Hawks one.
We'll talk about the weekly lines here in a minute. I'm kind of interested in that with a plus eight advantage. Holy shit. I don't know.
A lot of stuff to talk about here. So let's just segue it right on into it. I can't wait because I think for the first time in a long ass time, we're going to be able to cash some tickets on the Jacksonville Jaguars. So let's get into the full season betting preview for the Jacksonville Jaguars before I do.
Nice little sip. So cheers to y'all. Sons of guns once again. Mm.
That's good Joe. Mm. That's a two-sipper. That was such good fucking Joe.
Holy cow. All right. Back to action. Here we go.
Let's go back to the first thing. First things first. Let's briefly go back in time to 2020. Okay.
The year two zero two zero if you will a year that will live in infamy. Yeah. A year that will we will all never forget to hear that we might have gained a hundred pounds, might have lost 20 pounds, might have recommitted to things, but nonetheless, a year that will live in infamy. As for the Jaguars in 2020, some betting trends against the spread and over under.
Let's start with against the spread. They were underdogs by about 7.8 points last year on their lines, getting a little bit more respect from the books here in 2021. They're only underdogs by 3.1 points in 2021. Stick in with 2021 for just a second.
They are favored in two games, dogs in 14 and a pick them in week 12 against Atlanta, but that is in Jacksonville. So we'll talk about that too. But as far as 2020 goes, the Jags were 6 and 9 ATS with the 1 and 15 straight up record. They were 0 and 1 ATS as a favorite and 6 and 8 ATS as an underdog at home.
Not great. 3 and 5 ATS 0 and 1 as a favorite. 3 and 4 as a home pooch on the road. It's about the same, one less loss, 3 and 4 ATS 0 and 0, never a road favorite, 3 and 4 as a road underdog.