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We hope you enjoy. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, fans of the NFL Shield, San Francisco 49ers fans, NFL football betters, fantasy football players, anybody I might have left out. And welcome in to episode number one, 15 of the Talking to Line podcast. And as always, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful September 1st, 2021.
That's right, 2021 is already flying by. Rip another page off the calendar. We're ready to go. First things first, huge shout out to D L O three, my man, the myth, the legend, David Goens.
He is the producer and the writer and the artist for the song you heard on today's countdown. I've been going through changes. You better believe it, baby. We'll put the link in the episode description so you can find it there.
He actually just released a new song called Let's Be Honest. Go check that out too. But for now, before we talk everything San Francisco 49ers and have our usual banter and everything in between, please take a few moments to smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the talking line podcast on. If you are watching on YouTube, hit that notification bell as well.
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Like check one two one two ladies and gentlemen, beautiful people joining us on today's show. I am your humble host and sometimes producer Colton, cold 45, Soroka. Once again, thank you so much for choosing to stop by the talking the line podcast today. Got some good vibes flowing courtesy of my man David going to this morning.
My partner showed up at the TTL production studios just beaming. We have college football on top tonight. We have a huge slate coming tomorrow and then we have a huge slate coming this weekend. As a reminder, we got a CFP special show on Friday, but let me bring in that aforementioned partner so we can talk a little nonsense.
We'll get into the 49ers. Ladies and gentlemen, the cheese head himself, the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend and every day that ends in why Mr. Riley, our Max, Magnus. Barnard, how you doing over there, Dave Bell?
My man, as always, I am damn good. You know for the people that can see us on YouTube, I love doing the smash, the subscribe button, but sometimes I get a little carried away and I basically just punch the table today. So might be nursing my knuckles for a few minutes here, but hey, man, I've got no complaints other than that. I'm not even complaining about that because it's a nice little adrenaline rush.
It's me a nice little pain. I don't know where I'm going either, but I got to stop punching the table is kind of what I'm trying to tell myself without telling myself explicitly here. Well, if you need any ice, you just let me know. I'll exit stage left and for sure.
No problem at all. But yeah, we got a loaded day loaded show on tap here. Yes, as a reminder, just set it. Make sure if you are ready to start catching some tickets again on the Daily Show with us, we will be having a regular CFB special show on Friday.
So make sure you tune into that bad boy. Also mentioned wise words. We'll talk a little bit more about that at the end of the show, but our new latest show interview based show with some of the greatest minds in the sports gambling community. We will bring you the first episode on Wednesday, September the eighth and then every Wednesday after that.
So we cannot wait to bring that to you guys and really share some of the awesome connections that we've already made early in our journey here. Outside of that, we got early slate of MLB today. We have already put in some picks, not only for that, but also for the Jacksonville State and UAB game tonight. I am high as hell.
Well, usually fun. On Jacksonville State University, I love the plus 16 and a half and I got a little half you know, sprinkle on that money line. So awesome projections in a couple of places that raise some red flags for me. And I said, you know what, I'm going to go right on ahead.
So make sure you check out all of our best bets of the day. If you have the action network app on a cash underscore with underscore cold, R mags is at R mags. And then obviously that's pretty hard to remember. And then once we get back to the daily show, cash and tickets, all we will have our best bets at talking the line on the action network.
But as always, if you don't have the app, you can just go to talking the line.com hit the today's best bets tab. You'll see everything there as well as the live lines and odds for each daily slate. You can toggle between which sports you like as well. We have been spinning the wheels here just a little bit.
We've had some good days. We've had some bad days right about 50 52% for the MLB season so far. But ladies and gentlemen, one thing I can promise you is that if you choose to come around to the talking the line podcast once we get back to business as usual on September the 9th and then on and so forth and you get ready to cash grid iron tickets like you never have before, I can promise you that by week two, you will be wanting to name both of your first children Colton and Riley Magnuson, Magnuson being his middle name. I'm telling you what it is going to be a hell of a season hell of a mental name.
It is going to be a hell of a ticket cashing fest. We cannot wait to get back to it. We obviously have been preparing for the last five twenty six days now at this point. We've been doing NFL special editions.
We are not getting tired of them. We are getting more and more excited as we go through this. So we have a huge episode coming at you guys here today. We'll save all the bands or all the drama, all the nonsense for a little bit later on in the show.
Of course, as always, stick around if you want a little bit more action, some more important updates and announcements, everything we got there. But for now, cut it all. Let's get into episode number one, fifteen, the twenty sixth NFL special edition of the talking line podcast with today's team of the day, my friends, the San Francisco 49ers, the Bay bombers, the gold rush crew, the Niners, whatever you want to call them. I don't care.
But I got some question marks as always. Now, partner, I am very, very interested to hear you lie in a lot of these opposition. We haven't really talked about this much outside of the pod yet. So I'm really excited to hear where you lie with the 49ers.
You kind of know where I'm at. I'm on the fence. I have some concerns, but also at the same time, I really like Shanahan. I really like this coaching staff.
And I think they can do some things. So we obviously have plenty to talk about. We'll have the usual four segments. We have the full team breakdown.
We got the full schedule analysis. We will give you the 2021 record predictions from the both of us. And then we'll get into the full season betting preview, break it down week by week spreads, game totals, their season wind total, future plays, all that jazz. And then we will dive in to start stash or pass the fourth and final segment of the day.
Our best fantasy advice. For now, let's get right on after it. First segment of the day on tap with the full team breakdown. All right, my friends, let's get after it hot and heavy.
We'll start things offensively and kick things over to the defensive side of the ball. As always, we will start off with key losses and additions, talk some 2020 numbers, give you our overall outlook and then courtesy of our guys over at Shark Football Analysis, SFA. We'll give you some key rankings as well. So let's get right on into it here.
First things first, key losses on the offensive side of the ball. Handful of guys here, 12 guys in total, the 49ers and packing into 2021. However, a lot of them are not guys that you're really going to be all too concerned about. C.J.
Bethard quarterback, he went and joined the Jags. Actually had a few flashes there in the preseason. We were able to write home about Nick Mullins. They also sent him down the road.
So now it looks like they're going to depend on Garoppolo and Trey Lance. So if you're running back down the road as well, jerk McKinnon and Tevin Coleman, the legend, Jordan Reed, couldn't remember the last time he had a healthy season. Now he has officially retired from the NFL after just multiple seasons battling injury, maybe playing only one or two games. Right.
Kendrick Bourne, wide receiver. Obviously talked about him a few episodes ago, wide receiver there. Matt Cole, Trent Taylor and Chris Thompson, all also wide receivers. They let go, obviously no big names to write home about there outside of Kendrick Bourne.
And then a few centers. Actually like a three center. So depending on an acquisition that my partner will tell you about here in just a minute, but they let go Ben Garland, Ronis Graso and Tony Bergstrom. But I do believe they backfilled that center position just nicely.
So if you could be so kind to indulge this partner with the key additions offensively for these 49ers going into 2021. All righty. So most notably in free agency here, as you mentioned, Mr. partner here, I don't know why I called you Mr.
partner here, but center Alex Mack center Alex Mack is going to get the start at center position and it's going to be a big addition here, a very important addition for this offensive line. Aside from that, the only really notable free agency or trade acquisition was Mohammed Sunu, wide receiver. Obviously hasn't been a name that everyone is cheering from the mountain tops when he's on your team, but you know, a guy that can be serviceable in some spots, nonetheless, we'll see what happens this year. That was a free agency and trade at least notably here out of the draft.
However, obviously first overall pick for them out of the first round QB Trey lands North Dakota State and a little chip in his finger. Don't know if that would have, you know, left him out of the starting role one way or another, but either way he's starting off the bench this year. Second round offensive guard could be getting the start as well. Aaron Banks out of Notre Dame going to be another very important piece here rookie on that offensive line.
Third round they pick up running back trace sermon out of Ohio State. Very likely that we see him in some situations this year and we'll talk about that in a minute here. Oh, wait, and then I, oh, sorry. And then, you know, it's got me on the coast.
How we doing it today, baby? And then fifth and sixth rounds, couple more guys, but not any guys that were probably going to see too much of this year. J-Lon Moore, offensive guard out of Western Michigan, nice depth add there. And then sixth round running back Elijah Mitchell, another depth add.
So obviously those first couple of guys are going to be very important whether that's this year or in the future of this 49ers franchise, but I think they did a pretty decent job of some of these additions in the off season here at least offensively. I agree with you, sir. And glad you spent a little bit of time there on Alex Mack that is the aforementioned center that I wanted to spend a little time on. We'll talk about him once we get into the offensive line, but big add there for them.
He definitely has that veteran presence. Right. And so does Mohammed Senu in the wide receiver room. He has that veteran presence there.
Showed us some flashes in the preseason. Had a touchdown, had a couple of big catches, you know. Maybe we see something from him a little Garoppolo and a Senu connection, a little lancer new connection. Who knows what we see.
Well, let's talk about some 2020 stats where we dive deep into 2021. The 49ers average 5.7 yards per play offensively last year. They rush the ball 41.78% of the time and pass the ball 58.22% of the time. Completion percentage across the board at 65.09%.
Third down conversion rate was at a 39.09 clip. And in the red zone, they converted at a 67.27 clip. So not too bad in the red zone. I think that remains pretty much the same.
They brought in most of the similar pieces in the wide receiver room. And then I definitely think Trey Sermon and then at the end of the day, if it does end up officially being reheamostered, if he can stay healthy, I think those guys will take care of business in the red zone as well. Third down, obviously we want to see that take up a lot. 35 and a half is no good for any NFL team.
I think that was just a lot of the injuries that plagued them. A lot of the early down rushing issues we talked about with a lot of other teams. I think Shanahan returns the form and we'll definitely talk about him more once we get into the coaching breakdown as well. But for 2021, starting with the offensive line, projected week one starters, you have Mike McGlintany, Aaron Banks, Alex Mack, Lakeland Tomlinson and Trent Williams.
So solid based off of names, but in my opinion, I don't know how great and cohesive they will be this season and how well they can protect Garabolo and how well they can open up this running game for the aforementioned Reheamostered and looks like RB2 Trey Sermon. Now Trey Sermon, I'm a huge fan of loved him at Ohio State and then before I do believe it was at Georgia, I sound stupid for saying that. Either way, no reason either way. The one problem with him though is that he is excellent in the open field.
He is very elusive. However, if he is contacted out of line of scrimmage, it is no good at all. So that's why I'm a little concerned about this offensive line of potentially generating any help here for the running game. Then you have the wide receivers, Brandon and I, you, Muhammad, Sunu in the slot we already talked about and then Debo Samuel.
So you can Samuel coming back, both of those guys had decent years, but again, they battled some injuries. So they're going to have to come back here strong in 21. The great George Kittle, by the call him, deal with some injuries last year, which was really surprising, but he's back and in action. And then some of the remaining guys, Kyle Eustek looks to be backing up that hybrid fullback sure running back role as always.
Richie James is a wide receiver three. Looks like it's going to be. And then outside of that, we already talked about trade lands and then trace sermon as well. So I mean, offensively, they have some great names.
They have some great pieces. I think that they can have some success, but I do believe that it's going to hinge around all on this offensive line. And they brought in some big names. Their offensive line is right around the middle of the pack as far as spending.
So they're not losing a ton of cash right now based off of that. But this offensive line really has to produce an order for Garoppolo to stay healthy, to continue to produce for this receiving game to produce and for the running game to produce. It's kind of where I'm at overall. That would be the biggest question mark offensively is what do we see from the offensive line kind of.
So as you pointed out, what do you think about 21 for you to step off stage, X to left for a second, click on the old air. Oh, yeah, we have some air here. So I am very similar thoughts on this offensive view as you. I think on every positional group, I think health once again is going to be the biggest factor obviously because they're dealing with issues from last year, but also because of the depth once again is not quite there.
And obviously quarterback is more depth now. So if you bring Trey Lansing, we have to think that that's going to be a much better filling of the Jimmy Garoppolo hole than CJ Bethard and Nick Mullins were last year. So obviously that's the bigger depth addition there. But even wide receiver, if anything happens, any of these top line guys again, the depth that receiver is not quite there, the offensive line depth I'm concerned about, I do like, as the season goes on, if these guys stay healthy, I think that offensive line should be pretty damn solid.
And same with what Reimos said. That was a really crowded back field last year, but when he got the bulk of the carries, he looked pretty solid. So now you get Jerrick McKinnon and Kevin Coleman on out of there. And I think that's going to be pretty beneficial obviously for many fantasy owners that we'll talk about later, but just to get him out in a better rhythm on a day to day week to week basis for most of them, I think it's going to be huge for him.
But as you have concerns on this offense, I do as well a little bit, but I still have some optimism here, but it's going to really fall in that quarterback position if you ask me here. All right. So I'm going to get some question marks there and I'm going with a little bit more of the offensive line. So now you know our opinion, what we're kind of thinking about.
Let me give you the key rankings here, courtesy of our guys over at SFA. The quarterback room comes in ranked as the 18th unit in the league, obviously a little bit worse than right around the middle of the pack, just with the unproven sustainability and durability of Jimmy Garoppolo. I think that is very, very worthy. And then obviously Trey Sermon, it's North Dakota State University at the end of the day.
My friends, I only played one year. That is a very worthy rating, but I do believe that they can improve upon that very, very, very severely offensive line. They like them a lot, 12th unit in the league. So obviously the names, the ability that they have can definitely produce, but they're going to have to all put it together at one time.
Running back room 19th in the league, obviously a little bit of question marks there, which Trey Sermon and then is where he most are really that bona fide running back one. I'm not too sold on that, but as my partner said, a little bit crowded last year, maybe we see him breakout here in 2021. Then as far as the receivers go, eighth ranked units in the league might seem a little bit like what the hell are those guys thinking? Eight in the league.
You got to remember George Kittle accounts for 75% of their reception. So not to mention, I didn't mention it. A lot of people are really high on you breaking out this next year here. I've seen a lot of people.
He's kind of one of the sleepers that you might say sleepers as far as going to be a breakout wide receiver, but the people who are in that camp are through the roof like this guy is going to be an absolute stud. So I'm kind of buying into that a little bit. I don't know if he's going to be. I saw someone comparing to being like breaking out into one of the top five wide receivers.
I'm not going that high by any means, but I think it could be a boner fight number one receiver here in San Francisco. All right. Well, I don't know why I would necessarily put that. He did show flashes last year that there were some definite opportunity and when there were guys that all went down due to injury last year, he definitely stepped up and made the place.
So definitely worth thinking about there. We'll talk about that a little bit more in depth once we get to fantasy and then obviously we always talk more in depth as we get through the segments here. So let's flip the script on over to the defensive side of the ball right quick. Key losses partner kick it off your defensively force.
All right. So a couple of names that you're obviously going to know and a few that were some nice depth pieces here. A Keller Witherspoon, cornerback played 11 games for this team last year. Kerry Hider played 16 games off the edge.
This is a bigger depth loss, but with Nick Bosa coming back that should fill that hole. He actually had eight and a half sacks last year. So you might say, Hey, what the hell? That's a big loss.
Well, now with Nick Bosa filling that role, Hider picked up that role of Nick Bosa. So that's where those extra workload picked up there. Solomon Thomas played only two games last year, but he was a former number three overall pick back in 2017. He's been a bust ever since.
Tiana Jordan off the edge played only one year. He played 13 games for him last year. Ronald Blair off the edge, another nine games. And of course, Richard Sherman only played five last year, but he's in piece.
Yeah, he's in piece, but also a key piece of that 2019 defense that was so damn solid. So that's obviously one of the bigger losses, but you know, I think they've still got plenty of pieces here and a couple guys coming off injury that should be enough to fill these holes from last year. Most definitely not spent too much time on that, but definitely T's in pieces of Richard Sherman. The NFL is a much better league with you and it might run so good luck to you outside of that.
Yeah, some definite few names that are going to be noteworthy there, but they did bring in a few guys that I think will be just fine in back. So when they brought in Samson, a Bukem, Edge, Russia, Zakkir, Interior Defense of Alignment, and then two other Interior Defense of Alignment, Artie and then Maurice Hurst, obviously heard the name Artie and he's had a pretty successful NFL career. So I think he continues that here in San Francisco. And then they also added to Tae-bahn Wilson safety as well.
And then out of the draft, they got three guys. They didn't go very defensive heavy. They actually kept a lot of the guys that they've had around because they haven't dominant for the last few years since Shanahan has been around. And Britamis, Defense of back out of Michigan, Dio Mondor, Lenor, Defense of back out of Oregon.
Hope I did not butcher that. And then Palanoa, Hafunga, Safety out of USC. So look at this guy today. You know me and my pronunciation is maybe never skipping a beat before we dive into the overall outlook here for 2021 with some of those guys that will definitely be plug and play and making a immediate impact.
Look at 2020 here real quick. On defense, the 49ers allowed opponents to average right at five yards per play. Cross the board completion percent for opponents was at 63.5. This Lexi has acted up this morning.
A opponent third down conversion was at 35.5. So very solid there. And then not too bad in the red zone opponents converted at a 57.78 clip. So definitely a little bit of improvement could be seen there.
But I think it stays right around the same typically when you have a not a great number but not a terrible number. It's typically stays right around me and the Red Zone. So that all be instead. Let's take a look at the projected starters here for 2021.
Give you some opinions and then we'll dive into the coaching staff and keep this show moving. As far as defense line goes, going to look really similar to last year and what we have come to know as the Bay bombers defense so far, but they are adding that aforementioned Samson a Bukem on the right side. So he should be a very dominant piece. Jevon Kinwah, I didn't really pan out as of yet, but I think that he is going to be pretty dominant in 2021.
Eric Armstead and also Nick Bosa. So all of those guys on the D line, I have no questions about it in my mind. Rounding out the front seven, I have no questions there either. Dray Greenlaw and Fred Warner.
Yeah, I'm not going to ever attempt to line up across from those guys 40 to 60 times a day. No thanks. I'm good. And then for the secondary as well, Emmanuel Mosley, Kwan Williams, Jason Berett, Jakwiski Tarte and then also Jimmy Ward.
So a lot of J's in there confuse the opponent offense. Not really knowing what J is going to be moving where at one time. So I absolutely love that. But in all seriousness, I think we see another very solid year out of this defense.
I'm not concerned about that at all. The only real thing I already talked about in the offense is where my concern is I think that this front seven definitely, if they can improve anywhere, I would say maybe a little bit in coverage, but outside of that, I have no complaints. I have no complaints in this secondary. And I think they have another dominant 2021, especially with we'll talk about them here in a minute, defensive coordinator, Dameko Ryan.
Sure. My guy coming in. So I can't wait to see that. But what are you thinking for 2021 Niners defense?
Yeah, man, I have nothing bad to say. Once again, like yesterday to nitpick anything on this defense, kind of like you did without saying it is the secondary, but with Nick Bosa back in this front seven returning to, I mean, they weren't bad by any pain slicer. They're still damn good. But returning to that dominant form that we saw two years ago, I don't think it's going to matter too much how this sec obviously matters.
But you know what I'm trying to say, the secondary is not going to have to shoulder as much load if the quarterbacks are being pressured on a snap to snap basis like they were two years ago. So if I had a nitpick, it's going to be the secondary, but I don't think it's going to matter. This defense is damn good. And I think we see maybe not quite what we saw in 2019, but maybe 90% of what we saw two years ago.
I can definitely buy into that opinion for sure. Let's wrap up the defense upside of the ball with the key rankings courtesy of the guys over at SFA once again, front seven comes in ranked as the third unit in the league and the secondary comes in ranked as the thirteenth unit in the league. So much like both me and mags, a little bit of concerns there in some coverage situations with the safeties, but I definitely think that they can stay right around thirteenth or even improve upon that. Let's wrap up the entire team breakdown with the coaching staff.
You got Kyle Shanahan coming in now for his fifth official season. You also have now new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's and then a new defensive coordinator. The aforementioned the Mico Ryan's excited to see what the new OCDC combination can do. Obviously we know what we're going to get out of Kyle Shanahan's here.
Or do we? I mean, he's kind of spun the wheels here last few years. He's been good in certain spots. He's obviously the beautiful offensive mind that whole term that's been thrown around the NFL for now the last three years since the McVey and the Shanahan tree are now just starting to blossom through all 32 teams.
I love him. I think he's going to have a great season. Post season football is so much better when the 49ers are slashing and dashing the Green Bay Packers. I always love that.
So that'll be instead. You've had your opportunities get your subtle gems and I've heard none in here. I'll say well, so that'll be instead. I'm high on this coaching staff.
I think that with these pieces, they have a very solid opportunity to get to the playoffs, but we'll have to talk about that win total. I'm a little concerned about that. I mean, you mentioned the concerns about Shanahan and spinning the wheels at certain points. And it's not, it's not any misinformation.
It's true. I mean, he's got to be too kind of attributed that to whoever is healthy or whoever is at quarterback. And last year, obviously, whether it was Garoppolo, not healthy or Bethard or Mullins, whenever he's got a bad quarterback, those back quarterbacks just do not fit well into his offense. So a healthy, competent quarterback.
I've got some high hopes for him. And I think we see it this year for the most part here. I do believe you are correct, my friend. And quick, then, then, then, then, then, we talked about Irv Smith last week.
He has now officially gone under surgery for a turn. And this gives he will be out four to five months. It looks like so Mike potentially missed the entire 2021 season. They did trade for Chris Herndon last night though.
So they did pick up Chris Herndon as well. So there's another a little bit of breaking news for you. That is per the old legendary Chefty at Adam Schefter on Twitter. Let's keep this moving right along.
Time to get into the full schedule breakdown. Now you sons of guns know everything about the offense, defense, and coaching staff for the 49ers. Anybody's got some trivia questions for you? You got nothing but question answers in the back of your pockets.
Let's continue to fill those pockets with a little bit of a schedule breakdown. Now we will save week by week breakdown. As I said in the earlier in the show for the betting preview, we will just give you our record predictions here for their division games, eight main non-division games, and then the three remaining. We got 17 games this year.
Boys and girls. 48 days remain. Holy shit. All right.
That all being said. First things first. Everybody's got to know when the buy week is. So I'll tell you the buy week is in week six.
They do play the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night football coming out of that buy week with a seven day rest at vantage. That all being said, let's get you some predictions here. What we think is going to come from the 49ers. Obviously if you pay attention to the NFL sphere at all, or if you pay attention to the NFL gambling at all, everybody and their dogs are so high on the 49ers this year and a huge rebound year and a playoff run and Shanahan might be lifting the Lombardi.
That's what everybody's talking about this year. I don't know if I'm buying it because when everybody and their dogs are doing that and the books are in agreement, it throws a lot of red flags and sirens up in my mind. I just don't trust it too much. But let's get into it.
NFC West main division six games. Cardinals. I do believe coming out of last season, they split with the Cardinals. I envision something quite similar.
This Cardinals defense is, I think it's going to surprise some people. I get a little bit higher on it day by day. I'm fluctuating on them so much. I have to.
And as I was kind of looking into the Cardinals a little bit more again because they were first team we come for crying out loud. And I think that they get the win in Arizona before the by week because we'll talk about it in the betting preview. But this morning I was researching looking for some different numbers and shit and we totally forgot that they played those two neutral site games in Arizona because of the San Francisco fires or the California fires last year. I was so confused at numbers.
Like I was beating my head. I was like, Max, what am I missing? And we finally figured it out. So there'll be some key numbers in regards to that.
So those were played in Arizona. I haven't had much luck in Arizona. I'll give the Cardinals the week five win and then I'll give the 49ers the week nine win. However, the 49ers are in a three game rest disadvantage.
So they're going to have to play tight in week nine to get that split. I will give it to them. Then as far as the Rams go, that is always another tight game. I mean, this this division this year is absolutely stacked.
They got both last year. I do not see McVay doing that. You know McVay and Shanahan on their house votes this summer. Shanahan was talking all types of bullshit and McVay said, okay, motherfucker, just wait till 2021.
We'll see you on the damn grid iron. So I think that the Rams shocked the world on Monday night football. I just I truly there's something in my head that thinks they do it. But as a smart person, I'm going to say the San Francisco 49ers get that win at home on Monday night football and the game in week 18 is going to matter.
So much for the both of those teams and McVay's playoff chances. I will give that one to the Rams. So once again, split between those two and then I will give them yet. Man, oh man, I'll say yet another split with the Seahawks.
I do believe last year with the Seahawks. They did split with them as well. Let me make sure I'm not talking out of my eyes. There was the other Seattle game.
They lost the both actually lost in the both. But it was Mullins and then Bethard. So that is true. Okay.
I was just going right by. All right. So yeah, I'm going to give him another split there. Okay.
I think just with the got the formula that's the one team that has the formula out of anybody. It seems pretty consistently. So not off to a hot start here. 49ers fans or 49er potential betters.
Three and three out of the AFC West. Okay. NFC West. Yeah.
I'm actually going right there with you, my man. Hi, we did not talk about this at all. But I got a clean split across the board as well that I could see them. It's going to fluctuate.
I am so excited to watch not just the 49ers games with all these teams, but every single divisional game doesn't matter to them. Hatchett I'm so excited for. I'm going to say the only thing I'll flip on is I'll say the road team will win in those Rams game. The Rams will come into San Francisco on Monday night and get that win.
And then week 18, I just have been conditioned that Matt Stafford can't really win the big game in week. You've been conditioned at the 49ers whoop your team's ass. Well, I'm not talking about the Packers. Well, it's the point I'm making is that Matt Stafford has not proven that he can win a game in the last few weeks and season.
That's the biggest time. And maybe that's just because it's been against Aaron Rodgers half the time. I don't know. But one way or another, I'm saying a split here with all these teams.
So I can't wait for all of these games, man. Yeah, these NFC West games are going to be absolutely electric. I could see them every single one of them ending 35, 30, 35, 33. Just a couple of brandy ones with the Niners here.
Niners and Rams that defensive kind of game. Who knows? But we're both three and three NFC West. We're obviously getting more windy because we're getting the outside of your kids.
But first group of four out of their eight main non-divisional AFC South. I'll give them the easy win over the Texans. Easy win over the Jags. I was starting to get high on the Jags.
And that offense looks way too damn vanilla under Darryl Bevel. I think once again, Darryl Bevel is going to stick to the trend that they'll be a good first quarter team to bet on. And then from the second to the end of the game, fake the hell out of the Jags. So I'll give them the win there.
The Titans is going to be an interesting game. I definitely give the defensive edge to the 49ers now. It's going to obviously be very interesting that games in week 16 in Tennessee. Who the hell is the quarterback?
Who's healthy? Who's out? I'll give them the win over the Colts for the last five seasons all across the board for the 49ers and now it's starting to affect their superstars, IE, George Kittle. So I hope that doesn't happen.
But the week 16, Thursday Night Football matchup is going to be very, very, very critical. And I think I could see it go into the Titans, but I will give it to the 49ers. And then as far as the Colts game goes, that game I'll give them as well. I will give them the win over the Colts.
Is the aforementioned one out of their bi-week, seven day rest advantage on Sunday Night Football. So I'll do that. I kinda want to walk back to Tennessee game. I feel like three in one seems right.
I feel like one way or another. They go three in one here. I just I I they should. But I just don't see a clean sweep.
It's not like something funny happens on that Thursday night football game. Give me three and one of AFC self. OK, I am less confident in that Colts game, but what pushes me over the edges? It's in San Francisco off their bi-week.
So I'm liking that one there. I'm not going to waste too much breath on the Texans or Jags. Although it is in Jacksonville in a one day disadvantage for the Niners. Sometimes the West Coast East Coast travel can fuck some teams up, but I think that's just a matchup that the Niners will win no matter what.
And I really like them. I like the matchup against the Titans as well despite it being in Tennessee. I think it's just the right matchup for this Niners defense to give them some trouble. And the right matchup for that Niners offense against the tennis.
I guess we'll see what happens with the Titans secondary. Maybe it's improved, but if it's the same as last year, I think the Niners offense has a lot of success in that game. So I'm going for now with a little skepticism on that Colts game, but I'm going to go for now a little more confidently than you are a partner. I'll go to four.
No. OK. And I have about equal concern with the Titans game as I do with the Colts game. OK.
You do. So we'll stick. We'll stick for no because I do think they get that game on Thursday night football, but they're just one way or another. It's a little tentative.
All right. But let's keep it moving along. Fourth or not the fourth. The second round of four is the NFC North.
Oh, man. I hate always doing this. I hate this so much. That's tough.
Against the Bears, week eight on the road. It is in Chicago. Week eight, we could be getting a little bit chillier, a little bit of wind whipping in through. It might be a defensive game.
And oh, man. I hate myself. I'll give it to the 49ers. But secretly, I really want the Bears.
Detroit Lions, I give them the win there. The Vikings, I will also give them the win over just because that one is in San Francisco. I think it'd be a pretty tightly contested defense game. I just think Zimmer knows Shanahan's offense for some reason.
I don't know why, but I just get that kind of feeling. So how to at least counter defensively. So I'll give them the win there too. And then the pack, man, I really want to give it to the pack.
But man, what we've seen, and I know I'm sure you'll touch on it just what we've seen in the last few years, just really freaking scares me. I'm super high on the pack, but it only being week three at home. The 49ers could very well be two and oh, and writing a shit ton of momentum. Not saying the Green Bay Packers couldn't.
But once again, a little less confidently. I think it could go three and one, but I'll lock in four and oh, and really. Wow. OK.
I'm honestly teetering on two and two, three and one here. But I'm more confident going three and one. I think they absolutely destroyed Lions Week one. We'll talk about that a little bit betting wise.
But you know what, three and one, I want to give it to your Bears, honestly, because I like the Bears defensive matchup. I like three and one. OK. This is so hard.
This is a hard one. But as far as the Bears, I want to give it to the Bears. I really do because I like the defensive matchup for the Bears against this Niners offense. But I'm worried about that Bears offense regardless of who's at QB.
I imagine there'll be Justin Fields at that point. So I like that a little better because if they don't need Daltin that quarterback, it's going to be an absolute massacre. But if it's Justin Fields, I still am worried about that offensive line against this Niners front seven. I'm leaning towards the Niners there despite it being in Chicago.
That Vikings game I don't know what to expect. I'm leaning three and one one way or another here partner. And you're right. I said it when we were doing the Packers break down Packers Niners.
Even last year with the Niners injury, what the Niners did to us in both games two years ago is just giving me a football PTSD, if you will, not to use that term lightly, obviously. But you know what I'm saying here? They pulled their pants down. I said that a few weeks ago, they pulled their pants down twice in the biggest stages of the NFL.
And it still scares me. I've got residual effects from it. But I guess I'll say one way or another three and one. All right.
So three and one from the both of us out of the NFC North with me a little bit of a lean to a potential I'm going to stick back with three and one. Then the final three, they got the Bengals, the Eagles and the Falcons. All three that I see them having zero problem with whatsoever. The only one in my mind would be those Falcons, but that is in San Francisco in week 15.
So I'm not real worried about that. They got the Eagles in week two. So easy money. See you later sniper and then week 14.
They are in Cincinnati to play the Bengals, but I don't think that's any problem. So I'm a three and one remainder. Yeah, I'm going right there with you. I can't really talk myself into the Eagles or the Bengals.
And if it was in Atlanta, I think I would still lean to the 49ers. So give me three and I think they absolutely destroyed the Eagles and the Bengals. All right. Well, we're not as not as by at least one of us as one or high over as we usually are.
We're a little bit more consistent on what side you should take if you are either with either one of the both of us and even if you kind of side a little bit more to the three and one four no kind of splits I discussed there in the AFC South and NFC North 13 and four overall record for San Francisco 49ers. Now said very optimistic, man. Oh, yeah, the currencies and wind totals set at 10 and a half. And the one thing about that 10 and a half is they had a very low wind total last year.
And based on the numbers spread differential of improvement between last year, I believe it was at six and a half and 10 and a half this year. That's a top five improvement and teams in the past with the exact same scenario, a top five improvement, wind total season. They're only 34 and 64. So right at a 50% success rate to actually going over that 10 and a half wins or whatever their wind total is actually at.
And most of those teams average about nine and a half wins. So it's a little concerning that we too seem to be just as high on the 49ers as everybody else. Generally when you see that in NFL football, it is a new way. No, so I'm wondering closing thoughts here on the record predictions for we get into the buddy preview.
Yeah, closing thoughts. This team is fully healthy and we see somewhat consistent play at quarterback. I don't think it's that crazy man. You know, maybe they suffer some tougher losses than we're even giving them in the division because the division is going to be a bloodbath and maybe a couple of these other teams elevate themselves beyond what we expect.
But I don't think it's too lofty as long as this team is pretty healthy here. I don't think so either. But man, once again, I just I never feel confident about being with the entire public and everybody and the dog. So we'll see but to put a cap on the entire schedule breakdown, let's give you some key rest and prep stats.
You heard a little bit of it in there throughout some of our predictions, but they the 49ers have been played two opponents that have over a week to prepare for them and three opponents that have less than a week to prepare for them. So an advantage there. And then they also have an advantage in the rest departments. I only play two teams that where they are on a rest disadvantage and then they play four games where they are on a rest advantage.
They play two short week road games, though. So a little bit of a hit there and then they do play one game off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football game. So a little bit of a concern as far as the road games and then a little bit of the Monday night splits there. But as far as the rest differentials being prepared for these games, there's not really any questions at all.
And that's one thing you don't want to give these 49ers and Shanahan. I can't really speak too much on Mike McDaniel or D'Amico Ryan. Sure. I'll be able to very soon as they will be producing shit loads.
And I think that some of those key rest differentials are really going to play large for them this year. Yeah. And I mean, you and I talked about it before the pods. Meeko Ryan's people have a lot of faith in him.
I have been so high on Bob Salas. So maybe a case for us being a little not for us to temper expectations is that maybe the Meeko Ryan's isn't Bob Salas. And despite the talent they have in the defense, they take another step back compared to what they were two years ago. But I just don't see it.
Man, I think there's just a bunch of talent on this defense. I would have to agree with you. Well, that does it all of the schedule breakdown for the 49ers 2021 season. Let's get into the entire betting preview.
Third segment of the day will break it down week by week. Give you some future value and then some side plays. We got our eyes on too. First things first.
Let's go back to 2020 real quick and kind of set the stage here with what we're talking about in 2020. They had an average line of minus 0.1. So barely a favorite on average. But in 2021, their favorite by 3.9 points.
Now I talk all the time about that four point spread. Another red flag that's going off in my mind right there ladies and gentlemen. So again, I'm high on the 49ers, but this concerns me a little bit. They are favored in 14 games under dogs and two games and then they got to pick them against the Cardinals in week five.
So that is the aforementioned game that is played in Arizona. So that pick of my think Arizona is a very good and safe bet. If I do say so myself in 2020, they were 79 against the number with a six and 10 straight up record, two and six. ATS as a favorite and five and three ATS as a dog at home.
They were two and four against the number and one and four straight up. They were owned three as a home favorite two and one ATS as a home dog on the road. They were five and three ATS, five and three straight up two and one ATS as an away favorite and three and two against the number as an away dog. Now I told you they had two neutral site games kind of when those fires were going on and all that stuff.
They were 0 and 2 ATS and 0 and 2 straight up there. They played Buffalo and Arizona Buffalo and Washington Buffalo and Washington was a lot of those games and did not go so well for them. So I think that trend continues here in 2021. As for game totals, they had an average line in 2020 of 47.2.
In 2021, it's ticked down some. Now it looks to be some shootouts, low scoring defensive shootouts, 45.9. They had an eight and eight overall record. So nothing I can really tell you about there.
Three and three at home, four and four away, one and one neutral site. Five and three to the over as a favorite. Five and three to the under as a dog. So maybe an under team as an underdog.
No, something to remember there. A little over team as a favorite. Teasers, I think we should see improvement here, but I think we need to at least see a week or two. What the hell are we actually going to see?
But six, seven and 10 point teasers, they held an eight, nine and seven and nine, five and two records. So absolutely disgusting in 2020. I think you should be able to add them back this year, but we'll talk about it here in just a second. The weekly lines, they're a little bit concerning to me.
I don't know. I don't know all too much. We got a lot to talk about there as well. All right, let's get into it.
Weekly lines, my friends. First things first, week one against the Detroit Lions in Detroit. They go to meet Motor City, Dan Campbell for the first time. They are laying a touchdown and a half looking to absolutely whoop the lines.
Week two, they are a four point favorite against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Week three, five point favorite against the Packers at home. Not sure that's probably ticked down with the Aaron Rodgers news and all that nonsense coming out as well. Week four, they are three and a half point favorite at home against the Seahawks and then the aforementioned pick them in week five against the Cardinals.
Week six, they're by already told you that week seven, the Sunday night football game against the Indianapolis Colts. They are laying four and a half points in that game. Week eight, they're laying four points in Chicago to the Bears. Week nine, they're five and a half point favorites at home against the Cardinals.
Week 10, they're laying a field goal at home to the Los Angeles Rams. Week 11, they are laying four points to the Jaguars in Jaguar. Duval said in Jaguar, in Jacksonville, that would be week 12 minus seven against the Vikings. They are laying a touchdown there and then week 13, the first time that they are an actual real underdog, they are getting a point and a half against the Seattle Seahawks on the road in Seattle.
14, they are getting or are their lane. If you'll go in a half against the Bengals on the road week 15, they're laying eight and a half against the Falcons at home. So that should be easy peasy breezy week 16. They're laying two points against the Titans on the road week 17, almost two full touchdowns, 13 and a half point favorites over the Houston Texans.
And then in week 18, the second time that they're actually underdogs, they are three point underdogs against the Rams in LA. Before you continue week two against the Eagles, four and a half now, week seven against the Colts down to three and a half minus three and a half. Okay. So I talk about it time and time again.
The four and a half spread scares me more than any spread in the entire NFL. And I typically target the underdog in those situations. And more often than not, it hits, but you got to be really careful because it could very easily go the opposite way. But man, oh man, why is it only four against the Eagles?
That should be a touchdown. It does. So everybody's going to know that and they're going to take that. So red flag.
Why is it only four and a half against the Colts? And defense should shut them down. Brand new offense. That should be at least six.
Why is it only four against the Bears? Are we thinking that the Bears are going to be that good? Are they really going to improve that much? There's just too many question marks for me to have stone cold faith.
Oh, yeah, they'll cover that three. They'll cover that four in Jacksonville. They'll cover that three and a half in Cincinnati. No problem.
Like I just don't know. And are these so small because maybe to go back to a little bit, which you said just a minute ago, maybe to me, go Ryan's isn't Bob Salah. And maybe we do see some defensive aggression even more from what we saw from 2019 to 2020. Sure.
So maybe that's what this means. Okay. Maybe they get real close to matching that same 7 and 10 ATS record, but they do have a very successful winning season. Okay.
That could be very possible, especially with four and three spreads. They could be winning by one, two points all season long. That's where my head's at before we get into any game totals and keep it moving along. Or what do you think about here?
Anything jumping off the page? I think pretty similar to you, man. Before we see anything at least, if we see something that really sticks out to us and these lines are different, maybe it'll change our tune, but I'm kind of right there with you, especially these division games, if they're favored by more than a field goal in any of these division games or any of these teams in the NFC West, if they're favored by more than a field goal, I'm probably going to take the other side because they're a good chance that team wins and it's a good chance that game is a field goal game. Same thing with that Colts game and maybe against the Bears as well.
So a lot of these spreads that have their favorite over three points. I think like you, I think they could have a still successful season, but ATS maybe a little mediocre. So we'll see. We too, you're right.
I have no idea why that spread in the higher. That is the biggest question mark, at least on this entire bet. It's got to absolutely obliterate that off. They should, they should.
I will obliterate it, but absolutely. I don't know. We keep moving on. Obviously here in this year, be a little tentative to start the season with the 49ers.
We got to see a little bit, it might even be season long. So kind of for both of us, it might be a mediocre ATS season for the 49ers. One thing I did want to mention before we look at some game totals and then go on to the season when total some futures here with Garoppolo, Shanahan, and this offense are 24 and 9 straight up 18, 14 and 1 ATS. Without Garoppolo, as if this does not put enough pressure on Trey Lance's shoulder as it is, 7 and 27 straight up 14 and 20 ATS without Garoppolo.
So Garoppolo has to stay healthy to start the season, but if he doesn't stay healthy and they have to force Trey Lance into the spotlight and he has one little mistake, I can hear the 49ers fans now. Oh, we traded up for this guy. This is what we had to do. We told you know what to go to State wasn't worth it.
Damn, we told you only played one year. You can already hear it now. I think you're right. I don't know.
I think not as many fan bases are as vindictive over their top three quarterbacks as Bears fans are. Hey, settle on down long. I'm going to get that jab back in there. But I do believe 49ers fans are still a whole pissy pan.
Yeah, I feel like I agree with that. That would be the case. But I don't know. That just really concerned me seeing those numbers right there.
But as far as some totals go, man, it is going to be, I think, another eight and eight C's are, well, oh, I'm sorry. You can't be that eight nine. I don't know, maybe nine and eight because every total is at 45 and a half to 47 and a half. And is that going under is that going?
Oh, I don't know. I can. That might be a defensive game. And both defenses might not show up.
The books are priced on this team exactly right. And you're hearing it from me. You're hearing it from mags. I think you need to be tentative on the San Francisco 49ers this year.
I really, really do. We'll talk about the future plays and stuff like that. There's definitely some value. A week to week, especially early, the 49ers might bite your ass.
Hey, you heard it here first. Sure. Moving right along. Before we dive deep back into the season went totally far.