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For and wide, welcome in to episode number 99 of the Talking to Line podcast. And thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful August 10, 2021. Now, before we talk everything, Denver Broncos, I know you saw the title and plenty of other things on today's show. Please take a few moments before we go any further, too.
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However, and whenever you please. Ladies and gentlemen, beautiful gambling people and everybody in between. Once again, thank you so much for joining us on episode number 99. I am your humble host, Colton, cold 45, Sworoka.
And it is my pleasure to get things started here today on another loaded NFL special edition, the 10th installment of these NFL special editions. We actually got some updates to talk about in regards to that as well. We got some updates to talk about in regards to the daily show in regards to some stuff for tomorrow's show. But I keep saying we, I need some help talking about all these things and I need some help so I don't run out of air and I get some opportunities to get some high quality H2O in my system.
Now, who is that man? Well, he's the one sitting in my left, a young man who is thrilled that his white socks are coming off an absolute dropping of the Minnesota twins yesterday evening and looks like another one is on tap tonight. Me personally, a little bit worried about my Chicago cubbies, but that's neither here nor there. Let's bring in the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr.
Riley, R-Max, Magneson. Barter, how you doing over there today, pal? My man, as you mentioned, I cannot be too much better about my white socks or in general for that matter, no complaints over here as per usual. I'm ready to get dove into the old Denver Broncos here.
And as you mentioned, episode 99 today, number 100 tomorrow, milestones. All the same, I am excited today and tomorrow. And beyond, as we're gonna talk about later on the show, but yeah, nonetheless, man, I got nothing to worry about over here. Hey, well, that sounds good because no complaints on this side of the table either.
Yes, you did mention milestones coming right around the corner tomorrow, episode number 100. We do have some updates to talk about in regards to just tomorrow's show as well as some of the updates for the Daily Show. So over the course of the next few weeks, you guys are gonna see some changes, some stuff's going to kind of be a little different because we are coming up quick fast in a hurry on the college football season and the NFL season. And if you don't know by now, we are absolute fiends for the both of them.
So that being said, we wanna make sure we bring you our best bets and analysis when that time rolls around. So we have kind of configured the next couple weeks here and everything looks to be good on the horizon. We also have another little teaser for you, some additional content coming out. Looks like by the end of this month.
But we'll talk about all of that at the end of today's show. Once we get through the season preview for the Denver Broncos, we'll give you all of those updates and everything in between. But real quick, before we dive in to the aforementioned Denver Broncos and talk everything for their 2021 season. Reminder of a couple quick things.
First, even though we're not dishing out best bets, every single day on the show right now for the time being. It's just not business as usual, but we're still sports betting analysts at the end of the day. And we're still cash and tickets the last time I checked. So if you still want our best bets, you want everything in between in regards to the MLB, the daily MLB slates, that's pretty much everything there is to bet on right now.
You can follow us on the Action App for all of our daily picks. You can follow me at Cash underscore with underscore colt, follow Riley at R-Mags in all caps. And then you can also visit the darkinline.com website. You can click on the today's best bets tab, navigate on around that bad boy.
Then check out the live lines and odds as well. You'll be able to see live odds tables right before your eyes. And then hey, while you're there, you might as well peruse some of the other tabs and check out the pristine talking the line.com website done by yours truly, not to host Colton. That's website design Colton.
But all that being said, I'll give you some additional reminders at the end of the show. But let's get into the real reason why you guys stop by episode number 99. We'll talk about everything later right now. It's time to get into today's team of the day, cut all the nonsense, cut all the banter, bring them up live and in prime time.
The Denver Broncos, oh, that was wrong. The Denver Broncos, there you go, there you go. There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. You know, you guys, partner, there is an awful lot to talk about it with this team much as there is to talk about with every dog on TV as well.
With this one, we are going to focus specifically a lot on the coaching staff and some of the adjustments that they need to make, but might not make. We'll also focus on the value that we see on the defensive side of the ball here. We think that this defense, we're both extremely high on it and we'll have plenty to talk about there. And then we'll also kind of touch on a lot of the fantasy value here within this team and some of the betting value, not a whole lot of betting value, but we'll talk about plenty of that.
And then there is a potential fantasy value, but it's gonna have to be in certain spots and because of some certain key situations. But hey, you know the drill, we'll talk about all that nonsense here shortly. Let's get into the first segment of the day with the Denver Broncos as has become custom here on the NFL special editions. The first segment starts off with a team breakdown for the Denver Broncos.
And if you haven't been here before, first place we start offensive side of the ball and we start with the key losses and key additions. We kind of clean this up, concise this up a little bit, and then we'll save all of our thoughts and opinions for the very end. So kind of hyper speed here, just giving you an update of the entire lineup on both sides of the ball. And then we'll talk a little bit of our insights where we think these units are gonna rank overall across the board this season.
So first things first, let me get things started with the key offensive losses. They didn't let a whole bunch of huge names go, but they still bear mentioning Elijah Wilkinson, right tackle, Jeff Driscoll, quarterback, Nick Van Nett, tied in, Philip Lindsey. Now that's a big one, but I do believe they were able to fill that hole. And you know, I don't know that Philip Lindsey's career is gonna go anywhere great from here as he did go and join the Houston Texans.
DeMar Dotson, they let walk as well at right tackle, Jake Butt at tied in, Shroy from Magali at tied in as well. So I did mention three tight ends there. It looks like to me that they're putting all their eggs than being Broncos in Noah fans basket. He was a very good tied in last year, hawked a boatload of the receptions for this team.
So I think that he has some solid value, but we'll talk about all that a little later on in the show. And then I think they might be pretty dog-on-good at the running back position, even though they let Philip Lindsey go, Melvin Gordon shouldn't be too dog-on-bad. And I don't think one of the guys my man is about to tell you here in some of the offensive editions. It's not too bad either.
However, in my mind, this is one of the shining spots, the running back position right now on the Broncos offense. We'll talk about all that. Let me save that for later. Carter, why don't you hit me and them with the key offensive editions for the Denver Broncos going into 2021.
All right, so the list is not super long here, but there are some notable names here, as you mentioned, obviously number one, the elephant in the room here, Teddy Bridgewater, quarterback going to see whether or not we see Teddy this season or not, good chance that we do at some point or another. Bobby Massey at right tackle, going to be taking the starting role there. Has been pretty mediocre throughout his entire career. So we'll see how well that boats for their offensive line on the right side there.
And that was for the most part, it for the free agency is concerned in the draft. They picked up three offensive players here. As my partner mentioned, running back, second round, Giovanni Williams out of North Carolina. He's going to be the number two running back here.
And this offense had a ton of success in North Carolina running up the middle in between the tackles here. And I think we see a lot more of that again this year for the Broncos, Quinn Mayners, center and the third round out of Wisconsin, Whitewater, D3, Wagon. He's going to be a nice step play there for the offensive line. And then Seth Williams, fifth round wide receiver.
Not sure where he's going to slot as far as this line of his concerned. Might be able to make that number five wide receiver spot. So we'll see whether or not, we get decent volume of catches from Seth Williams or not, not super high enough here for year one, but maybe in a couple of years. But that's about it here for the offensive edition, if you didn't know, extremely high on Giovanni Williams.
I will talk about him a little bit later on in some of the betting portion and definitely in the fantasy portion as well. But hey, I think that's a great add out of North Carolina. And then some of those sleeper adds on the offensive side of the ball, they didn't go super heavy via the draft or free agency or the trade market. But they did do that defensively.
And we'll talk about that here in just a minute. But as for the offense in 2020, some of the key stats you guys should know about. They averaged 5.2 yards per play. So a bit of a stinker there.
They rushed the ball on 42.91% of their plays and passed the ball on 57.09% of their plays. Completion percentage across the board for their quarterbacks. You know, they also had a quarterback carousel going on in Denver last year, 57.01% completion. Third down conversion percentage was absolutely terrible, mainly because the offensive coordinator, Pat Schurmer, decided that running the ball on second and long to give his quarterback a third and manageable position and hopefully convert was the right idea to implement into this offense.
And clearly it wasn't because they only converted on third downs at 38.68% of the time. They were also pretty doggone bad in the red zone at a 53.33% clip. Obviously a little better than 50%. But in this league now and with the names on this offense, they should be right around 60% at the very least.
So key steps there for you guys to know about coming out of 2020. Let's take a quick look. I'll let you guys know about some of the positional starters. Actually, all of the positional starters what it looks like is going to be the starters on week one.
Then we'll kind of segue into what we think about a little bit. Overall, our kind of outlook, I'll give you my outlook. Max will give you his outlook. And then we'll give you guys some rankings and dive into the defensive side of the ball.
So offensive line, my guy, Bobby Massey, leaving the Bears, going to do the Broncos, rejoining Vic Fangio team. And he got a glass gal that is Graham Glassgal, Lloyd Cushin Berry, Dalton Risner, and then Garrett Bowles. That is all from right to left, respectively, on that line. Then I told you about Noah Fant.
Looks like he has slated definitely to still be TE1 here in Denver. And in the wide receiver room doesn't look too bad in and of itself. Courtland Sutton returning from the ACL injury after last year. I am extremely high on him in many different regards.
We'll talk about that here in a second. KJ Hamler out of the slot. And then Jerry Judy, also my guy on the opposite side of Sutton. Then in the backfield, he got Melvin Gordon looks like going to be RB1.
And then Javante Williams, RB2. I love that duo. And I envision Javante Williams being a JK Dobbins in his first year and potentially having a huge breakout come week 10 or even week 12 after their buy. That's neither here nor there.
We're talking about the team. Quarterback, Drew Lock, or maybe Teddy Bridgewater. It's still an open competition right now. Not really too certain.
I personally would like to see Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. I just don't think Drew Lock has it. I apologize, Denver Bronco fans. And then a few of the backup guys you have Tim Patrick at wide receiver who I'm very high on from a fantasy perspective.
And then Seth Williams, who you said, don't really know if he's going to get a bunch of exceptions, what exactly is going to go on. So some of the names in this offense should lead to some high powered production. And I think that the potential is there. But just overall, across the board, I don't know that Pat Schurmer, being the offensive coordinator, can put these pieces together and actually run successful play calling to make these guys successful.
I know about you partner, but this is kind of the glaring hold or glaring question mark for me for the Denver Bronco just going into 2021. Yeah, we're pretty close to align on this one. I am not a Pat Schurmer fan. However, there is a lot of talent on this team.
You mentioned Court in the court and something. That's going to be a huge re-edition back into this lineup from all aspects of things. Jerry Judy Judy, I want to see a big improvement from him. He had a lot of drops last year.
And then some of them were his faults. Some of them were overthrows. And beyond just drops a lot of overthrows led to his lack of production, at least when you look at his stat sheet. 18% drop rate.
Correct. Yeah, not good. And then this offensive line, even with Bobby Massie, should be decent for this offensive line. But they were above average as far as sacks allowed and keeping their quarterbacks out of pressure.
So I like this offensive line. I don't love it. But I think we see some good things here. And as you mentioned with the running back room, I kind of see a similar thing here.
I've always been a Melvin Gordon fan. But it seems like the style of this offense is kind of going away from his skill set. And they brought in the guy in Williams that is tailor made for this offense. Like you said, I think we do see him.
It's tough to him. I don't know. It's hard to see him totally taking over Melvin Gordon's health. But like I said, I think it's just guys who are better fit for this offense.
So maybe we see it. Maybe we don't. But on top of all that, I do like no fan. I hope he has a big season after what we saw from him last year.
So as far as the depth of that tight end room, hopefully no fan can stay healthy because the depth isn't quite there compared to some of the other teams that we've talked about. But overall, I think he sees a big step forward. And quarterback room, much like you would like to see Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. So sounds like we're pretty much aligned all the way across the board.
Yeah, most part on the Broncos offensively. Per the guys over at SFA, that's sharp football analysis for those of you who are new joining the show. We get some of the key stats and trends that we use on the Daily Show from them. So thank you, as always, Warren Sharp, for all of your hard work.
We appreciate all of it. Ranking right now the quarterback room at 31st out of 32 units in the league. Not great. Too much of a question mark, obviously, with Julak.
What are you going to get out of him this season? And then also at the same time, if Teddy Tugeloves comes in, is he going to be the dominant Teddy Tugeloves? I think he'll be solid in the underdog spot, as we'll talk about later in the betting portion. But I don't know.
I don't know if Ovik Fangio or Pat Sherman can set him up for success. But we'll see what happens. The offensive line coming in ranked at 19th, right around middle of the pack. Nothing crazy to write home about there.
Running back room 15th, a little bit better than middle of the pack, a little bit further, with definitely some open doors for improvement. I think Melvin Gordon starts to look a little old as we get about a quarter halfway through the season here. Kind of like it seems like you do as well, partner. And then that opens another door for Gevontae Williams to have one hell of a rookie season.
So at least a back half of a rookie season. And then there also, as I don't know, this receiver room as we are. But the big question mark is, are they going to have any type of quarterback production to make this 13th ranked unit really run? Right.
I'm not too certain that that happens. The jury is definitely still out on that. We'll talk about all of their fantasy value, even more of their lineup breakdown, all that stuff. We somehow always end up working it into other segments of the show.
So we'll cut it off there for the offensive side of the ball. You guys know who is there. Let's flip the script if you all will. Keep on up.
Come on. Come on. All right. Thanks for sliding on along.
We appreciate it. Now, on to the defensive side of the ball. Some key things to talk about here. First and foremost, some of the defensive losses going into 2021.
I kick things off offensively. Or max kick things off defensively. Partner, please, once again, let me and then have it. All right.
So nothing crazy to write home about. Nothing super high to complain about here. They did lose a few guys that you would recognize. However, AJ Bouier, seven games at the cornerback spot he played last year wasn't super effective.
So it's not a huge loss there. And my partner is going to tell you how they filled a couple of these holes here, especially in the secondary. Elijah Holder, cornerback, eight games also played in the secondary for them last year. Marcus Walker, interior D line, 13 games.
Jeremiah, Tatchu, 13 games had five sacks off the edge last year. That is one of the bigger losses. They did fill those holes in various ways there. Anthony Chiquillo, I believe, is how you pronounce it, played 11 games off the edge as well.
And Devante Bosby, another corner, played 10 games for him. So nothing crazy to complain about here, partner. How about these additions? As far as the additions go, we're pretty dog-on-heavy in the draft.
Not so heavy in the trade market or free agency. They did make some additions. And if you saw me bump my head as my partner was talking about the loss of AJ Bouier, it's because they backfilled him with one of my favorite bears of all time. And that being Kyle Fuller, one of the fastest pickups I've ever seen.
The Bears dropped him. And it wasn't even a full 24 hours later. And he was a member of the Denver Broncos and rejoined Vic Fangio. They also grabbed Ronald Darby, who struggled with the Eagles for quite a few years, and then went to another NFC East team, the Washington football team, and a little bit of a career resurgence last year.
And obviously, the team saw enough in him here this year defensively to say, hey, let's scoop you on up and bring you on into town. They also picked up Chamarle Stephen interior defensive alignment. Now I told you they went heavy in the draft. And I think that they hit the jackpot in a few areas.
They got Patrick Sertain the second, roll-dam-tied, defensive back Alabama. I'm very high on him. But we'll talk about some of the possible defensive rookie of the year and stuff on that later in the betting preview. They also picked up Baron Browning, linebacker out of the Ohio State University, very high on him as well.
Caden Stearns, safety out of Texas, another safety out of Indiana, Jamar Johnson, Kerry Vincent Jr., defensive back out of LSU, and then two defensive ends. Jonathan Cooper at Ohio State and Marquis Spencer out of Mississippi State. They went heavy, and they loaded up. These guys have value for immediate impact, and also value for long-term impact.
I think that Denver did pretty damn good in the draft defensively. Now the jury's out. If Donatell will be able to implement these guys and play them like they need to. But in my mind, this defense is going to be one of the better ones in the league.
It's going to be very sneaky, very, very sneaky. And now it's going to surprise a lot of people going into 2021. But all that being said, let me tell you guys about a couple of key 2020 stats before we dive into the overall outlook and the full lineup. As far as opponent yards per play, they allowed 5.6.
Nothing terrible. Like to see him keep it right around there. opponent completion percentage was at 65.96. So a little bit high, but nothing terrible once again.
opponent third down conversion percent at 40.18%. Once again, not bad. An opponent red zone scoring percent at 47.54. So all across the board there, and those key stats, those key marker areas, not too bad at all.
And if you do remember, this defense dealt with so many injuries last year. They lost von Miller right off the bat and had so many cancellations and COVID issues and different things. I think that we see a complete turnaround with the full return of health going into 2021. Now, all that being said, let me tell you quickly about each of the guys that it looks like are going to be on the starting day one lineup.
And then I'll give you a little bit of my outlook and thoughts. Kick it over to my partner. Talk about coaching staff. And then we'll get into the schedule.
Here we go. As far as the defensive line, I'd rather jump back in action, technically linebacker, but defensive end, Shelby Harris, defensive tackle. And then Dremont Jones on the inside and then the man, Von Miller, technically another linebacker in that 3-4 Fangio defense, but Von Miller back in action, ready to rock and roll. Behind them, Josie Jewell, linebacker, and then Baron Browning looks like he's going to get the automatic start.
So great to see that for him. I told you I'm very high on him. And I think that he has a dominant season here in Denver. Kyle Fuller on the outside, Ronald Darby on the opposite side of him.
And then Bryce Callahan, another former bear. I hate to see playing on Denver because he's very solid. Slot Corner has been one of the best ones in the league over the course of the last couple of seasons. So I think he remains to do the same here at the 2021.
And then Justin Simmons is the strong safety and Kareem Jackson free safety. Both of those guys were turning here this year. I think that we see some improvement. The Denver defense did allow a lot of deep passes.
Those two guys got the cover ripped off of them multiple times last year. So I think we see that cleaned up a little bit. And they definitely saw that as a problem and reinforced the secondary with Fuller, Darby. Callahan coming back.
I love the secondary. I'm extremely high on the secondary. I think that they stopped opposing the wide receiver rooms game in and game out. And you're going to see potentially a lot of interceptions, a lot of force fumbles, a lot of stuff happened, a lot of QB hits, a lot of sacks from this defense.
I think this might be, and we'll obviously talk about it later. But this might be, once again, one of the top three defensive, fantasy defensive teams going into this year. I just think they're so dog-gone valuable. I think that they just have all types of powerful players all across the board.
And in my opinion, I don't see that there's a team that they play that they don't stop outside of maybe the Kansas City Chiefs, maybe the Baltimore Ravens, and maybe the Brownies. Outside of that, they got plenty of opportunities to feast defensively. That's my thoughts. I think that they're going to be sick of shit, but not for me.
Shit confirmed. What do you think, partner, as far as the Broncos defense here in 2021? Yeah, I really like this defense, man. Vic Vangio is not the GM, but it's clear that he has influence on what type of players he wants in his defense.
Because this defense really resembles some of the defenses that he has coached in the past that has had a lot of success. He's breaking Chicago for crying out loud. What I'm really, and you mentioned the secondary, I'm also high in them. I think one of the biggest factors of how high their ceiling is is honestly von Miller, because putting him back in the lineup, no question.
It helps them out so much of the past rushing load was on Bradley Chub this year, and putting him back in there. Obviously helps. I'm just wondering how close to prime von Miller, if at all we see from him. In 2019, I believe it was, let me check my notes here.
Yeah, he saw a little bit of a decline in 2019. He went down to eight sacks, which is still really good, but it's down from 14 and a half in 2018. He had double digit sacks from 2014 to 2018. So I'm not saying we see a big decline from von Miller.
I'm just wondering if he returns to someone that's in the defensive player of the year conversation, this defense is no question. I'm going to be top three. If he's in that seven, five to nine sack range, that's still going to help him a lot. There's still going to be a top 10 defense.
That puts a cap on their ceiling a little bit there. So I think we see a return from him, and he plays well. And as you mentioned, I really like Browning and Chub, I think he's going to have a monster here as well. And then those additions at corner are, they spent 20 million in free agents on corners, and that doesn't even include their top draft picks.
So I am just about as high as you are. It's just Von Miller could be the X-Factor here. Yeah, I mean, you didn't hear me mention Patrick Sirtain. I'm glad you said that because he's not even slated in the starting lineup right now.
I too, just like you, I'm a poet, I didn't even know it. I'm extremely high on von Miller, and I think this defense hinges on him. I think he has a huge 2021 season. And you know, actually, I didn't look at the odds.
I'm going to have to talk about that when we get into the betting preview. Come back, player of the year for von Miller. I saw it. OK, perfect.
Absolutely love it. I didn't see it. So I didn't write it down, but I guess I was personally interested. But maybe you are.
We'll talk about it when we talk about it in the betting preview. However, let's keep it moving right along. Supposing thoughts here on the defense. For the guys over at SFA, they are as high on this front seven as we are sixth ranked unit in the league right now.
And then also the secondary. They're just as high, if not higher, on the secondary than we are third ranked unit. Man, that is a mouthful. Third ranked unit in the NFL right now.
Wrapping things up as far as the entire team breakdown. Let's talk about the coaching staff real quick. We've mentioned all of them multiple times already. But just so you know, Vic Fangio returning now for year three in Denver.
Then you got Pat Sherman returning for year two. Very surprised. Sherman got the nod to come on back after the production in 2020 after the lack of fixes in 2020. But hey, we'll see what happens.
And then Ed Donatell, defensive coordinator this year for Denver. He is coming back for his third season with Vic. So they run a very similar defense. It's obviously looks as we have been talking about it.
Like it's going to be a very defensive minded team. And overall, I'm not sure that Pat Sherman can do anything for this team offensively. As far as any capping thoughts there on the coaching staff, will we move along partner? You got anything for me?
Yeah. Like I said, I think this defense is going to be tailor-made for Vic Fangio. So I think he is going to do enough to keep himself around. I think we might see an exit for Pat Sherman at Fetch.
At some point, middle of the year, by the end of the year, I'm not a huge fan of him. And I don't think it's going to be enough to bring Vic Fangio down with him. Because like I said, I like that defense. But I wouldn't shock me on that sense as well, if this team is really struggling record-wise.
But we'll see. We will definitely see. But that does it for the entire team breakdown. Let's keep this show steaming on the tracks, my friends.
Keep up, keep along, strap in. It's time to get into the entire schedule, breakdown, and analysis. Damn, I'm off today. I keep going the wrong way.
But I'll probably be back by the time we get to start Stasher Pass. That's usually when I just really drive her on home. You know what I'm saying? I deal in absolutes over here.
So moving right along into the schedule. First things first, my friends, you know how I do it. I'm going to let you guys know who they're all playing. Week 1 through week 18.
That's right. Keep reminding you. Keep reminding you. Keep reminding you 18 weeks this year, 17 official games.
We got an extra week of football, baby. But that all being said, quickly with the Denver Broncos upcoming 2021 schedule. Kind of weird to see this. But they start week 1 and 2 on the road in New York against the Giants and in Jacksonville against the Jags.
Then they get to go home against the Jets. So it should be a nice mile high victory there. First one in Denver. And then for the home team, they will be the home team once again, rather, against the Baltimore Ravens in week 4.
Then week 5, 6, and 7, they go on the road, back to home, on the road against the Steelers, Raiders, and the Brownies. Then they go home away, home in week 8, 9, and 10 against the Washington football team, Dallas Cowboys, and the Philadelphia Eagles. So kind of funny there. They play the AFC North and the NFC East, which are some of their main games outside of their division, which we'll talk about in a little bit, right in the same cluster.
So pretty dog-on-tough stretch there for him. But then they have a bye week in week 11. Come out of the bye in week 12 to play the Chargers. Week 13, they play the Chiefs for the first time.
Then week 14, 15, and 16. 14 and 15, they're at home twice against the Lions and the Bengals, so two wins there, Iron Vision. And then 16 and 17, they are both on the road against the Raiders again and against the Chargers. And then they close out their season in week 18 at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Very winnable game, I do believe for them in week 18, because the old Chiefs might have the season wrapped up by that point if they have another season like everybody and vision them and everybody expects them to repeat yet again, because somehow they managed to not let any of their team go for an entire new season, but we're not talking about the Chiefs today. We're talking about the Broncos. All right. We want these Broncos fans to leave on us.
So that all being said, hey, I just told you guys that I think they might win in one game. So that all being said, there you go. There you have it. Let's give you guys some predictions.
We told you all about the schedule. Let's give you some predictions here where we think the Broncos are going to stack up against their opponents in 2021. Well, my friends, if you're a Denver Broncos fan, you're not going to like me. And I really, really do apologize.
But as far as the AFC West goes within the division, partner, I know you might be right alongside with me once again, but I do believe they get swept by the Chiefs. I think potentially that could be a one-in-one situation if week 18 is completely wrapped up for the Chiefs. That's a big if big, big, big if. I think the Chargers get both for them, both from them, rather.
I think that is incredibly hard game to come out of the bye week against regardless if they are in Denver or not. And then to play them in week 17, when that game's probably going to mean a lot for the Chargers in LA, I just don't think either one of those games are going to come out in favor of Denver. And then I think they can potentially get both from Las Vegas. I actually do think they get both from Vegas.
They come home, and it's actually they're one of the easier teams that they face across the board all season long. They have them in week 16 and week 6. I don't think they'll have a problem getting both of those. So in my mind, they go 2 and 4 overall, with the chance of maybe going 3 and 3, if potentially, like I said, that week 18 is wrapped up for the Chiefs.
So yeah, that's why I'm lying 2 and 4, 3 and 3, potentially partner wears your head out as far as the AFC West goes for the Broncos. I'm kind of on the same page with you there. I do like him to get at least two wins here. I want to say it's going to be two against the Raiders.
The one thing that scares me about that is that they lost both games in the Raiders last year, obviously, different circumstances. But they allowed at least 30 points in both of those games. Now, I do think they correct all of their issues on defense. That should be able to stop this Raiders offense.
So that's kind of where I'm thinking they get those two wins and kind of correct them as six that they made from last year. And then if they split with the Raiders, I could still see them getting that one against the Chargers out of the bye week. And then as you mentioned, that week 18 game is definitely possible. I'm not putting the Chiefs in that spot myself.
I think they could be in a spot where they need that game to either get the division or maybe like a one or two seed. So I'm not going to give them the Broncos that game. So I know for the most part, we're in the same spot here. I'm staying two and then maybe they get a third.
All right. Well, once again, we find ourselves a line on the Broncos. Moving right along into their eight main games outside of the division. I mean, Rock and Roll over here.
They, as I already told you guys, they play the AFC North and the NFC East. Now, the NFC East is definitely not shaping up to be the beast more like the East, not necessarily the least as much this season. Within the East, we talked about the Cowboys yesterday, talked about them getting the win over the Broncos. I think they do.
But as I look at it more, definitely a little bit of a toss-up coin flip game there for me. But I think the Cowboys definitely still get it. I think they go two and two within the NFC East. I think they get the wins over the Giants and the Eagles.
And then in the AFC North, I think it's going to be tough sledding. I think they're only going to get the win over the Bengals with losses to the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens overall. So I got them going three and five overall in their eight games outside of the division partner where you at there. Yeah, we're very close here.
Once again, I could see them. They got Washington at home with a three day advantage. So I could see that Washington defense being a little tired and gassed and mild high. That might be enough of an advantage to push them over the edge against the football team there.
But I also do think they get the wins over the Giants and Eagles. Those are two of my most confident wins for them on this schedule. And then, yeah, one in three out of the AFC North, man. I think they could get that Steelers game.
But I don't like that matchup as far as the Broncos offense versus the Steelers. Defense is concerned. So for the most part, we're right of line once again. One more time with what you're thinking.
Same as you. Three and five. OK. Well, there you go.
There you have it. And that leaves us with three remaining games outside of the eight main and non- and divisional games. Those three are what, in my mind, are their cupcake games. They should take care of these.
No problem. They should go three and 0 here against the Jets, the Jags, and the Panthers. I am a. I'm sorry, the Lions.
I apologize. I'm still just not high on the Jags, even with Trevor Lawrence, even with everything going on there. We'll talk about it. I might have a little bit of a change of heart once we get to Jagsville.
But for right now, I think they go three and 0 outside in their outside three games. Part of where you're at there. Yeah, very similar here again. I could see the Jags kind of finding themselves somewhere around halfway through this season.
But I think this is a good matchup for the Broncos here in week two, coming out of the gates and seeing some still some rookie struggles there from the Jaguars. So I'm going three and 0. Yeah, as I mentioned, the Giants were more confident games. And then especially the Lions coming into Denver.
That it's got to be my number one most confidence game for their host, actually. OK. Well, we are once again lined up. And that pretty much puts us both at eight wins.
Sure does. That intrigues me in a lot of different areas. But we ain't going to talk about that yet. We'll talk about that when we get to the season win total, because, ah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, my head is now spinning.
All that being said, couple of final key closing points. Now, partner, you did mention it. And I appreciate you mentioning it. The rest advantage there against the against.
The against. against Washington. Did they have one as well against Eagles or is it just Washington? It is just Washington.
Either way. Either way. Either way, either way, they do have pretty solid rankings for preppco. We always bring that to you courtesy of the guys over at SFA.
They have one opponent faced where they have over a week to prep. That opponent has over a week to prep. And then they face opponent where that opponent has less than a week to prep. So pretty much negated there.
Nothing you really need to worry about. The Broncos have a rest disadvantage and only one game and have a rest advantage in two games. So they got a plus one difference there. You like to see that a little bit.
Some of those key games definitely against that football team as well. The Broncos play one short week road game. And they play no games off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football game. So from a scheduling perspective, a timing perspective, the Broncos look to be in pretty good shape as well.
So I think that all of this encompassing that we have talked about and some of these closing points I don't about to give you here in a minute is going to put the cards on the table for the Broncos. It's pretty much going to say, hey, here's the season. You guys have one hell of an opportunity. Don't shoot yourselves on the foot.
Right. I mean, that's what it comes down to. I mean, they could very easily get over eight wins. Some of those sneaky ones with some of this rest advantage, this prep advantage, all these different things.
I think that they potentially have a shot here, ladies and gentlemen in Denver, but they could shoot themselves in the foot. Those final things that I wanted to tell you about. Some of the forecasts are worn sharp. The Broncos will face the easiest schedule of defenses overall, and they will also face the easiest schedule of past defenses.
Both of those are forecast right now. Another forecast, fifth easiest offense faced for Denver against four Denver defense. So they will face the fifth easiest schedule of offenses defensively. And then Denver has the fifth or the second easiest schedule faced through the first 15 weeks based on strength of schedule.
So they have a serious opportunity to get a bunch of those early wins, a bunch of wins on the board. I think that they have the potential. And I mean, the proof is in the pudding right there, there's not a whole much else I can say. They have what looks like to be a cupcake schedule going in here to 2020 compared to 2021.
And once again, it's all in the Broncos, not to shoot themselves in the foot. Right, I think we could be seeing them looking really, really good in Denver. The one thing that does concern me with that is that they went two and six straight up at home. And we say that home feelings advantage is gonna be bigger this year, take away every single fan.
And the Denver Broncos should already have one of the bigger home field advantages in Mile High. Absolutely. And then, but you look back at last year, and they played an absolute gauntlet at home last year. And that is totally flipped this year.
So I think they get five, maybe not easy wins, but should be wins. I could absolutely see them picking off either, maybe not the Ravens or the Chiefs. I don't know about the Chargers, Washington. I could absolutely see that.
And then, you know, in the same vein, I could see them kind of choking to one of these teams that they should be down the road. So, you know, I'm still kind of sticking with my eight wins here. Yeah. Everything you said is exactly why I said my brain's spinning.
Because I, right, because I mean, there's so many directions that it can go. And we'll talk about that here actually in just a second because hell of a segue by you, part of it. I appreciate it as always. Let's just get right into it.
That's everything for the schedule. You guys know all about it now. Let's get into the betting preview. Now I'm on it.
You guys know what we are. Sports betting analyst, daily sports gambling show, if you follow us on the bird app, that being Twitter, for those of you guys who don't follow us on Twitter. We obviously loved it, but we obviously love to hammer in props. Hammer in spreads, hammer in money lines, hammer in totals.
So, we got to look at everything from 2020. We got to look at everything into 2021. And then we'll talk about all the value we're targeting. I already told you guys we'll talk about the season win total.
We'll talk about some additional value plays outside of Make or Miss playoffs or any of their division wins, anything like that. We got plenty of stuff to talk about. So, strap in yet again, if you are just joining us, you join us at the perfect time because it's about time to talk cash and tickets on the Denver Broncos. So, first things first, my friends, let's keep the show moving with the 2020 ATS and over under trends for the Denver Broncos.
Now, part of you mentioned it just a little while ago, and some of these key trends here will definitely reflect that, but the Broncos were not great at home, and they were not great at home against the number either. Now, in 2020, they had an average line of 5.4, so they went underdog of 5.4 points. The books are giving them a lot more respect this year. I'm not too certain why it might have been at the time of public it might have been at the time of publication.
Aaron Rodgers was still up in the air if he was going to be picked up via free agency or via trade by the Broncos. Obviously, that did not happen. So, that might tick up just a little bit here, but it's at plus 0.24 2021. They are favored in nine games this year and underdogs in eight games, so definitely the books think too that they have some cupcake games that they should take care of business in.
Now, as far as 2020 ATS record goes for the Broncos, they were 8 and 7 ATS with a 5 and 11 straight up record. So, a little bit better against the number. Obviously, they went 1-0 as a favorite and 7-7 as an underdog. So, pretty much a coin flip, but I told you just a little while ago that Teddy Two Gloves is a damn good underdog.
He's actually 24 and 8 ATS as an underdog. That's covered at a 75% clip. I'm pretty sure I backed him in every single underdog spot. He was in with the Panthers last season.
Everybody always tries to, you know, throw my man Teddy Two Gloves under the bus and say he ain't the man. He don't know what he's doing this, dad, and the third. And I ain't buying it. I ain't buying it.
And I think that he is the spark plug. The proverbial spark plug the Broncos offense needs. And if they want to find success, they need to insert his happy ass Week One. No question in my mind.
Okay, I agree with you. I think there's a world that could be bad for the Broncos. They could start 3-0 with your lock, and that might actually be bad for their season. They're very well good.
And then, but then you mentioned this gauntlet. They kind of go through Week 4-10 where they get 3-A-S, you know, the opponents that might flip it pretty quickly. Yeah, and before we get into the weekly, I'll wrap up all of the ATS numbers here. So, at home, they were 3-4.
You said not good straight up, not good ATS either. They were never a home favorite last year, which is also really surprising that all of those ATS numbers were 3-4 as an underdog. They were really good on the road against the number 5-3 ATS, 1-0 as a favorite 4-3 as an underdog. I don't really know what to draw from that because you said at partner they should have been good in Mile High.
They weren't. They didn't get it done. And yeah, we didn't have fan distraction or any crowd noise or any hostile environments playing on the road that they had to deal with, so they were good there. Now, they're going to have to deal with that this season.
We'll obviously see regression on the away side of the ball. Are we going to see progression on the home side of the ball when it comes to the number? I just don't think so. I think so because I'm looking at last year's schedule of home opponents, Tennessee, Tampa, Kansas City, Chargers, Miami, Saints, Buffalo, and the Raiders again.
So, they had a gauntlet at home. Okay. Okay. That definitely changes my mind and it's a lot more cupcake at home this season for sure.
So, they might get a lot better against the number at home. What that number might be a little too big. You never know. It also could very well be too.
So, Jerry's out. We'll talk about the weekly lines here in just a minute. As far as over under goes, they were complete toss-up here. 8-8 over under in 2020 with an average line of 45.6.
The line ticked down just a little bit, but still a toss-up number into 20-22, 45.2 overall. They were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road. So, I have no idea what to tell you there. But they were 1-0 as a favorite and oh, 8-8 as a dog.
So, you know, nothing really you can draw. It's going to be a total toss-up and a lot of the teams that do have consistently 43, 44, 45 right in there in the books really don't know why. You don't know what you're going to get from that team. You don't know if they're going to produce defensively.
You don't know if they're going to produce offensively. And a lot of those game totals reflect that. That all being said, you love a teaser. I love a teaser.
We all scream for teasers. Maybe not for the Denver Broncos. Maybe leave them out of your teasers in 6-7 and 10-point teasers respectively. They all hold 11-5 records in each of those positions.
I don't think they're worth an ad in many teasers spots. I typically don't add them to any of my teasers. I can't tell you the last time I added the Denver Broncos to my teaser. It has to be one where I can tease it through 6-7 key numbers in order for me to even think about hammering them in.
Evidence by the 11-5 record in each of those positions. So, there you go. There you have it. 20-20 in a nutshell from the ATS over under and teaser trends side of things.
Let's look into the weekly betting markets as far as the spread goes and as far as the game totals go going into 2021. That's right. We got them all here for you. Lock in.
Hold on tight. Here we go. Now week one should be all right. No problem.
Week two should be all right. No problem as well. Told you they're going to be away from Mile High beginning the season on the road, which kind of sucks because typically you love them to start the season in Mile High because it is an absolute betting freaking wagon. Not going to happen this year.
We'll have to wait to see if we can do that in week three. But there are one point favorites and one and a half point favorites against the Giants and the Jags. Five and a half point favorites in Denver. Sorry.
One little neutral right there. In Denver against the Jets. Then in week four, five, and six. There are three and a half point dogs against Baltimore, four and a half point dogs against the Steelers and three and a half point favorites against the Raiders.
Then week seven, eight, and nine. Looks to be one of their toughest games on the schedule. They're seven point dogs to the Browns. Three point favorites to the Washington football team and four and a half point dogs in Dallas.
Then week 10. Yeah, they have a buying week 11. I apologize. Week 10 and they play the Eagles as four and a half point favorites in Denver.
Then they come out of the by week in week 12. Play the Chargers in Denver. Once again, it's two and a half point favorites. Then week 13.
This will be their official hardest game as far as spread goes during the season. They play the Chiefs in week 13 as nine and a half point underdogs. Then their most highly favorite game of the entire season against the Lions in Denver in week 14. They come in to seven and a half point favorites.
Then follow that up in Denver once again against the Bengals as five and a half point favorites. Then wrap up the season week 16, 17, and 18 all in underdog spots, but all very similar. They are in Las Vegas as two and a half point dogs. They are against the Chargers as three point dogs and against the Chiefs as three point dogs as well.
So kind of a toss up how the end of the season is going to end there in our opinion definitely and also from what it looks like in the books opinion. Looks like those are going to be some shootout closely contested contests, if you will. Right off the bat, before you take it away here partner, I told you the hardest one that looks like it's going to be for them to cover. The most one that they are favored in against Detroit.
I'm a little leery of that minus seven and a half. That kind of scares me away. That minus five and a half against Cincinnati. I do enjoy outside of that week one and week two.
I'm not too scared of either but part of anything jump off the page. Like you said, I'm interested in week one and two. But aside from that, it's going to have to determine for me who is starting that quarterback. I'm not going to feel too great about any of these if I don't know who is that quarterback.
Because some of these games against better teams, I would rather see Teddy Bridgewater because he's going to keep them in those games. So as far as game totals go, nothing really major to write home about. I told you guys they have a low end to 42.5 and a high end of 50. Everything's right around in that mid 40s tier.
So as we've been saying with a few of these teams, it's going to have to be that right spot. If you want to play Broncos total, they're going to have to be playing a team who's a wagon to the under, who's a wagon to the over. Because eight and eight over under in 2020 is definitely nothing that you can pull from that. So they have no advantage in my ally.
And I think it's going to get a little rougher form on the road, especially with a lot of players. So there you go. There you have it for the weekly look ahead for the daily betting markets or for at least the weekly betting markets rather. Now, partner, I got to ask you, I mentioned it briefly kind of where I'm at, but way too early, week one pick.
They are in New York against the Giants minus one point favorites. Are you hammering in the Broncos or you're fading the mess out of them? Taken the G-Man. I'm hammering in man.
Honestly, I don't really think that's going to be a big deal. I'm going to be a little bit more focused on the game. I'm going to be a little bit more focused on the game. I'm going to be a little bit more focused on the game.
Honestly, I don't really care who's at quarterback for this week one game. I am very low on the Giants, not like I'm what I'm seeing out of the rumors from their camps or what I've seen in the past. So yeah, first two weeks, honestly, I'm liking the Broncos team. First three, that's depending on what that week three line is, I will love the Broncos to win that game.
We'll see what that line's at though. Lock me the fucking right now. This has got to be one of the first ones that I've had super- I agree with it. I'm not even questioning.
I think every other week one way too early play that I have either made you take or that I've taken. It's been like, it hasn't been way too early. No, it's been a way too early. But this one, fuck no.
Hammer this son of a bitch and right now I am all about it. I think I take that one and a half if I'm not mistaken in that one week too. I looked, it was already a two and a half. Well, slap a wig on me and call me Sally.