Tugboat Daily Brief - Iran-Israel Conflict - 2026-06-25

Israeli warplanes strike Gaza while Defense Minister Katz refuses to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, clashing with US diplomatic efforts. The Senate passes a war powers resolution to curb military operations as Iran resumes IAEA inspections and markets show mixed signals of stability and uncertainty. Key Developments Israeli warplanes struck targets in Gaza while Defense Minister Israel Katz refused to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon despite US diplomatic pressure. Iran resumed International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and ceased tolling in the Strait of Hormuz to secure sanctions waivers and access to frozen assets. The US Senate passed a war powers resolution directing President Trump to cease military operations, marking a significant legislative check on executive authority. Western intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s compliance is a calculated move to preserve regional leverage while continuing support for Hezbollah and Hamas. Actors Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz: Refuses to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, prioritizing border security over diplomatic pressure. Iran: Resumed IAEA inspections and stopped tolling in the Strait of Hormuz to gain sanctions waivers and unfreeze assets. US Senate: Passed a resolution directing President Trump to cease military operations, creating a legislative check on executive power. Western Intelligence Agencies: Assess Iran’s actions as calculated moves to maintain leverage rather than genuine de-escalation. Economic Impact Brent crude oil prices dropped below $73, indicating that traders believe the immediate threat to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz has eased. Gold prices rose slightly near $4,000, reflecting persistent long-term uncertainty about the conflict despite short-term calm in other markets. Defense contractors are scaling up production of intelligence systems and munitions, signaling expectations of prolonged military engagement. Outlook The conflict risks settling into a fragile stalemate if Washington pursues nuclear sanctions relief while Israel continues its military objectives in Lebanon. A significant incident in southern Lebanon could shatter the current equilibrium and turn the diplomatic freeze into a severe escalation.