Tugboat Daily Brief - Iran-Israel Conflict - 2026-07-25

The US conducts its thirteenth night of airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure while Tehran retaliates against American bases in the Gulf. Gulf states join the conflict with covert strikes as global markets react to the escalating direct combat and fractured diplomacy. Key Developments The United States completed its thirteenth night of airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure while Tehran launched retaliatory strikes against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal, signaling a hardline stance focused on sovereignty and asymmetric retaliation. Gulf states including Bahrain and Kuwait conducted covert airstrikes on Iranian drone sites with support from UAE intelligence, marking a significant shift in regional involvement. Actors United States: Executing sustained airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure as part of a calculated pressure strategy. Iran: Launching retaliatory drone and missile strikes against US bases and rejecting ceasefire proposals. Bahrain and Kuwait: Conducting covert airstrikes on Iranian drone sites, moving from passive observers to active participants. UAE: Providing intelligence support to Gulf state airstrikes against Iranian targets. Oman: Acting as mediators pushing for a temporary ceasefire to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Economic Impact Oil prices settled near ninety-seven dollars after retreating from a hundred-dollar peak as Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels eased slightly. Gold prices rose to just over four thousand dollars, reflecting cautious optimism rather than panic among investors. Defense procurement spending remains elevated as governments prepare for a prolonged standoff. Outlook A sustained aerial campaign remains the most probable path if Washington continues its current surge in intelligence gathering and precision munitions contracts. Omani mediators are pursuing a temporary ceasefire to cool tensions, though the situation could change instantly if Iranian missile silos near Tehran become active.