TWIG #382: Merge Mansion Falls, Xbox Fires the Wrong People, and the Math That Killed Gaming VC

What this episode covers

Supercell absorbs Merge Mansion, Xbox fires its veterans and hires from Instacart, and the math behind gaming's VC collapse finally gets laid out in full.In this episode of TWIG, Mishka is joined by Josh Chandley, John Wright, and Ethan Levy to break down the biggest moves in games this week, from Finland's most beloved merge studio quietly running out of road to why gaming VC funding has dropped 95% since 2021.Topics Covered:● Supercell acquires Metacore and why a profitable $30M a month game still couldn't survive● What the 70% layoffs tell us about liveops competition and the limits of celebrity UA campaigns● Xbox replaces 24-year veterans with Instacart execs, and whether growth engineering can fix a content problem● GameStop bids for eBay with no synergy pitch and why the meme stock era never really ended● Roblox voluntarily takes a billion dollar hit on bookings and why it might be the smartest long-term bet in the room● The math that broke gaming VC funding, from $12.5B in 2021 to $627M in H1 2025 and what founders should do insteadCHAPTERS:00:00 Cold Open Jail Joke00:11 Meet the Hosts01:47 Episode Headlines02:21 Theme Park Mario Talk03:13 Line Monetization Schemes04:40 Istanbul Events Plug05:37 Consulting Shoutout07:03 Supercell Buys Metacore08:38 Metacore Rise and Stumble10:51 UA Cuts and Layoffs20:00 Strategic Investor Dynamics23:14 Xbox Leadership Shakeup24:42 Game Pass and Content Gap26:48 Microsoft IP Live Service Vision28:59 Xbox IPs Need Long Runs29:55 GameStop Buys eBay Meme32:22 Roblox Safety Overhaul Fallout35:32 Age Verification Debate37:02 Roblox Monetization and 18 Plus43:03 Ustwo Cuts Costs Reality45:16 Freelancers Bands Model47:25 Premium Math Doesn't Work51:19 VC Funding Math Broke59:06 Is This the New Normal01:01:56 Wrap Up and Thanks

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