TWM 2025 4thQ Report

While there have been plenty of twists and turns, the first half of 2025 unfolded pretty much as anticipated. Looking ahead, our base case is for renewed expansion into 2026.SOURCES:Alpine Macro, “Eyes on US Labor But Profits Ultimately Rule”, written by Bassam Nawfal, September 16, 2025Alpine Macro, “It’s Not Just Gold That Shines”, written by Kelly Xu, July 10, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “AI CapEx Boom Points to Tech Bubble End Game”, written by Ian Harnett, September 25, 2025Absolute Strategy Return, “Rate Cuts & Earnings Favour Risk Assets”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, September 24, 2025Oxford Economics, “Bifurcated – State of Consumer Depends on Whom You ask”, written by Michael Pearce, September 24, 2025Oxford Economics, “Recession Monitor – Gradual Pace of Rate Cuts Warranted”, written by Matthew Martin, September 25, 2025