Two things shape the course of your life: luck and your decisions (with Annie Duke)

What this episode covers

Read the full transcript here. • Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools? • Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets , is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/AnnieDukeAuthor), Twitter (https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke), YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/channel/UClDhEz5b55RH1ZfEZd7Y3hA), LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/annie-duke/5/b2b/30a) or via her website, AnnieDuke.com (https://annieduke.com); or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack (https://annieduke.substack.com/). • Further reading • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-in-Bets-Annie-Duke-audiobook/dp/B078SBSBW3/ref=sr_1_1?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853892;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-1) • Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/B09PVR6YK5/ref=sr_1_2?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853903;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-2) • How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/How-Decide-Simple-Making-Choices/dp/B088P4XLVB/ref=sr_1_3?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853903;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-3) • The Alliance for Decision Education (https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:[email protected]) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill... [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/213/annie-duke-two-things-shape-the-course-of-your-life-luck-and-your-decisions]