Uncertainty and the perils of prediction with William M Briggs

Economics Explained host Gene Tunny speaks with statistician William M “Matt” Briggs about uncertainty and the perils of prediction.Matt is a consulting statistician and a policy advisor to the Heartland Institute. He has been a visiting Professor of Statistics at Central Michigan University and an Adjunct Professor of Statistics at the Cornell Medical School. Matt is the author of the 2016 book Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability and Statistics, published by Springer.In the interview I mention Matt’s article Why is Economics plagued by Math? This article by Matt refers to a 2015 paper by Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Romer Mathiness in the theory of economic growth.If you’re interested in learning more about Matt’s work, check out this video on YouTube:The crisis of evidence, or why probability and statistics cannot discover causeIn my introductory remarks I quote from John Bohannon’s Science Magazine article: About 40% of economics experiments fail replication survey