Understanding US-China Relations Right Now with Nathan Labenz

In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence. --🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.--RECOMMENDED PODCAST:Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive RevolutionApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSykYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/--Highlights from the Episode: The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War. Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order. US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing. Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology. Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict. --SPONSORS: NetSuiteMore than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102FoundFound provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102.AdQuickThe easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. --SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected] ON X:@labenz@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia--RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__EBook: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-gameBook: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_DeterrenceNoahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-bigNoahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.