Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution (2024)

from N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. "Real tails" do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails.Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced "Ber-noo-yi" not "Ber-noo-li", much like consigliere is pronounced "consiyyere".Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMvQeH9oo2w

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Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution (2024)

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