Unrest in Hong Kong

Academy Securities Geopolitical SITREP   Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape      Table of Contents:  Hong Kong Protest Background: 00:00 - 4:33  Mainland China’s Response: 4:34 - 11:28  The View from Taiwan: 11:29 - 15:43  North Korea and China: 15:44 - 19:09    Listen on iTunes Here  Listen on Google Play    Key Points:  For the last several years, the market has failed to fully recognize that Hong Kong is a part of China - it isn’t completely independent.   If the U.S. were to respond to the crisis, it would be with more difficult terms around trade.   Much of the anti-government sentiment and protests began in April in response to an extradition bill.  China and Hong Kong are part of “one country two systems”:  The Hong Kong system and “basic law” protects civil freedoms of Hong Kong citizens.  The protesters wish to highlight the deterioration of these freedoms and protections.   The protests are not hierarchical or organized.  The protesters and their recent actions risk alienating the population to their cause.   China’s growing global influence could impact its response.   China’s deft social media and AI capabilities are important considerations when evaluating these protests.  Two U.S. Navy port visits have been canceled amid protests and accusations of U.S. involvement.   The Chinese People’s Armed Police - not Army - has massed on the Hong Kong boarder.  China is walking a fine line trying to diminish the impact of the protests while using limited force.   An escalation by mainland China would result in more disruptions to trade negotiations with the U.S.   Taiwan is watching what happens in Hong Kong very closely:  The events in Hong Kong could lead to more anti-Chinese/anti-communist sentiment in Taiwan.    The U.S. has approved new military sales to Taiwan and China has responded by increasing military operations around Taiwan.  North Korea remains economically dependent on China and China remains a consideration as we evaluate the ongoing negotiations with North Korea and its behavior.