Upside #23 - Some not so obvious predictions for 2025

Overview: In this episode of Upside, hosts Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen, along with guests Andrew Scott and Lomax Ward, delve into their 8 bold predictions for 2025. Covering everything from AI and space tech to geopolitical tensions and venture capital trends, they unpack what’s on the horizon for tech, business, and venture in Europe and beyond.2025 Predictions and Discussions:1. Apple will win AI2. Open AI will be dethroned 3. Conflict with China4. Defence Tech will boom5. EU and UK will wake up and focus sovereign control on AI, Quantum and Space  6. Space tech will really lift off 7. US heads into recession 8. M&A up IPOs up00:00 Introduction to Upside and the Future of AI02:46 Apple's Potential win in Consumer AI06:11 OpenAI dethroned? Leadership and Future Challenges11:49 China, geopolitical Implications of AI and Defence23:52 Defence Tech Investment will boom31:17 Hardware isn't always bad for VCs32:14 UK and EU Sovereign Control and Technological Progress in 202533:39 The Importance of AI, Quantum Computing and Space to Europe35:36 Space Tech really lifts off in 202538:26 Space Manufacturing and 'Why' Exploration42:17 Timings and Market Predictions51:33 The State of European Venture Capital54:26 VC and the Role of Technology in Economic Growth57:15 M&A and IPO Predictions for 2025Key Topics Discussed:Apple’s AI StrategyDan predicts Apple will dominate consumer AI by leveraging its ecosystem, resources, and loyal fan base. Mads questions whether Apple has lost its innovation edge and explores what "winning" consumer AI means.OpenAI's FutureOpenAI faces challenges as competitors like Google, Anthropic, and XAI push forward. The panel discusses leadership struggles, funding needs, and the possibility of new technologies dethroning OpenAI.Geopolitics and DefenceThe impact of China's ambitions toward Taiwan and the West’s response. Defence tech as a booming sector, with increased NATO spending and opportunities in dual-use technologies.Space Tech ExpansionInvestment in space technologies continues, focusing on communication, defence, and manufacturing. The challenges of scaling space ventures and predictions for a more affordable and accessible space economy.Economic Outlook for 2025US economic trends point to a possible mild recession, while Europe faces stagnation due to political and economic challenges. Insights into concentrated stock markets, corporate performance, and venture investment trends.M&A and IPO ResurgencePent-up demand for M&A deals and a likely reopening of the IPO market in 2025, with companies like Klarna leading the charge.The European Venture LandscapeChallenges in scaling European startups and the need for founders to integrate US business DNA early. Calls for greater ambition to build trillion-dollar companies and reinvigorate Europe’s industrial base.Memorable Quotes:Dan Bowyer: “Apple’s ecosystem gives it a fighting chance to become the de facto standard for consumer AI.”Mads Jensen: “Europe needs to back great founders and rebuild its industrial base.”Andrew Scott: “Space tech is the future, but timing is everything. A lot of startups will fail before the sector truly takes off.”Closing Thoughts:The panel concludes with their personal focus areas for 2025, emphasising a love for early-stage European founders, the need for industrial reinvention, and how we can push boundaries in venture capital.