Upside #37 – Q1 2025 in Review + Tariffs & European Venture + Heads Down & Build

🎙️ Featuring: Dan (SuperSeed VC) Lomax (Outsized) Andrew (7%)00:30 – Klarna’s IPO Pulled & BNPL Under Pressure Lomax reflects on Klarna pulling its IPO, amid turbulent markets and declining peers like Affirm. Is the buy-now-pay-later model starting to creak under macro pressure?02:15 – Wave AI x Nissan: A Mega Auto Deal from Cambridge A highlight for the UK: Wave AI’s $1.2B-backed AV tech lands a landmark partnership with Nissan for post-2027 production.03:30 – Shopify's CEO Goes AI-First Dan and Andrew react to a leaked Shopify memo urging teams to prove a task can’t be done by AI before requesting headcount.05:05 – AI Futures Project: Black Mirror Vibes A fascinating, speculative look at global AI scenarios via ai-2027.com — think Asimov meets geopolitics.06:45 – Tariff Talk: Trump, Trust & Europe’s Wake-Up Call Dan shares his eight theories on Trump's new tariff push, what it means for global trust, and Europe’s potential silver linings — including brain drain reversals and safe haven appeal.10:45 – What Founders Should (and Shouldn’t) Do Lomax: “Head down and build” remains the advice — though hardware startups at Series A/B should evaluate manufacturing strategy. Dan and Andrew agree: short-term panic isn’t the play.14:45 – Hardware & Biotech: Sector-Specific Risk How US-origin requirements, reshoring costs, and future pharma tariffs could force hard decisions on supply chains and capex.17:45 – Market Reactions, Investment Shifts & “VC Panic” From "RIP Good Times"-style memos to portfolio rebalancing — VCs are reacting in varied (and sometimes dramatic) ways.22:15 – Report Review: State of Venture (CB Insights Q1 2025)Global VC hit $121B — highest since Q2 2022AI dominated with $40B for OpenAI aloneCVC activity dropped sharply, particularly in Europe & AsiaUK VC funding hit a 5-year low; Nordics and France on the riseFewer deals, bigger rounds, and a record 12 $1B+ M&A deals27:15 – AI Bubble or Boom? Dan & Lomax debate how long the mega-investments in gen AI can last. Andrew points to foundational tech (chips, infra, cyber) as the safer long-term bets.32:30 – The Data Center Power Squeeze Power scarcity is slowing new data center builds — particularly in Europe. Efficiency, not just scale, may be the next AI gold rush.34:30 – Report Review: UK AI Sector (Tech Nation)2,300 AI startups worth $230B$1B raised in Q1 202576% of CEOs report positive impactGrowth capital & talent cited as top challengesPolicy still biased toward risk-aversion, not growth38:45 – “The UK Thinks Small” Lomax reads Barney Hussey-Yeo’s powerful critique of UK scale-up culture — a call for bigger ambition, smarter regulation, and less fear.41:45 – What Needs to Change? Andrew: “We don’t need more government-run funds — we need to unwind bad policies.” Immigration, pensions, and tax reforms are the real levers for growth.44:15 – Deals of the Week 🚀Polamist: European maritime defense techGreen Jets: $7M electric jet engine raiseJensen AI: Open-source distributed AI infraIsomorphic Labs: $600M mega-raise led by US capital46:45 – Final Thoughts Despite the gloom around tariffs, IPO slowdowns, and policy inertia, Q1 shows Europe's tech scene still has major moves to make — especially if founders stay focused and regulators get out of the way.