Upside #45 - Proxy Wars, Booming IPOs, & Defence Saves Europe

🎙️ Upside 45 Podcast – “Defence, Dirty Deals, and Disruption”This week EU defence spend motors - will it save us?European Space Agency military satellites US-China competition - European opportunity?US IPOs up 30% this year, so far, so whatBritish surgical robotics start-up -> sell-out⏱️ [01:13] – Geopolitical Hotspots and DefenceIran’s global influence and diasporaUkraine’s resistance to Israel-Iran dynamicsCautious optimism about regime change WWIII has begun?⏱️ [03:35] – Oil & Markets Brent crude spikes (from $70 → $77, possibly $100+) Shipping, inflation, and interest rates affected Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty⏱️ [05:52] – Impact on Venture?Founders not immediately impacted, but long-term capital flow risks flaggedDefence tension might dry up funding or shift VC attention⏱️ [06:56] – Defence as a European Economic Engine?Defence our financial lifeline? But VC exposure to defence is tiny⏱️ [09:35] – Unicorns in EU Defense Tech3 recent unicorns: Helsing, Tekever, Quantum SystemsHelsing shifts gearVCs rush in - BUT Sales cycles, procurement, regulation⏱️ [12:38] – Helsing’s Capital & The VC Taboo US firms: Lightspeed, Accel, General Catalyst Homegrown capital is crucial to reducing 10x funding gap with USEIF restricts arms/weapons investmentsHelsing’s value as a “reference company” for LPs⏱️ [18:51] – ESA’s Satellite PlansEU Space Agency wants €1B+ to build military satellite network.⏱️ [22:15] – Iris vs Starlink ContextIris <> StarlinkEU must move fast on sovereignty or risk dependence⏱️ [23:59] – NASA Cuts vs ESA BudgetsNASA’s proposed 25% cutEurope’s ESA increasing funding—ironically divergent paths⏱️ [25:52] – China, Trade Wars, and Supply ChainsEU’s dependence on Chinese imports (clean tech, chemicals) Fear of trade dumping post US-China de-coupling Rare earth constraints impacting defence and auto industries⏱️ [29:45] – Tariff TimelinesJuly 9 tariff decisionPotential EU-US mini deal to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffsPharmaceuticals next⏱️ [32:00] – IPO Boom in the US Chime, Circle, CoreWeave IPOs—massive post-IPO pops Klarna leads EU pipeline⏱️ [34:04] – IPO vs Private CapitalBill Gurley’s hatred of bankersPrivate markets still offering better valuationsSPACs are back!⏱️ [36:25] – Surgical Robots and CMR SurgicalCMR (Cambridge Medical Robotics)Raised $1B, now eyeing $4B exitPremature exitCMR’s potential lostScale homegrown tech more aggressively⏱️ [44:45] – Deed of the WeekDaniel Ek’s €600M into HelsingParis-based Nabla raises $70M Series CScale AI deal closes in one weekFastest capital deployment of its kind; no FTC review needed⏱️ [49:05] – Founders in GovernmentAlex Depledge named UK entrepreneurship advisorPraise for founders like Matt Clifford shaping UK tech policy⏱️ [51:10] – Meta’s AI Talent WarMeta’s aggressive poaching of OpenAI talentAI job market likened to football transfer seasonPay off or backfire?