Upside #52 - More Chips Please - Be More German - No Easy A?

Upside #52 The weekly podcast for all things European venture, startups and investing. Each week we look behind the headlines for the real news affecting our ecosystem.VC Hosts: Mads, Andrew & DanThis week: Seed-to-Series A: harder or hype?Germany’s €100B DeutschlandfondsUK interest rate cutOECD’s corporate investment warningEU Chips Act 2.0 - 1.0 #failAI Corner – GPT-5, Anthropic’s advances, open-source warsDeal of the Week00:50 – Series A: Out of Reach? Really?US: Avg. 2.5 years to Series A, down to 11% graduation rate. UK/Europe: ~18 months, higher graduation rates, but smaller rounds. AI reshaping funding pace; bridge rounds at record levels. Overhang from 2021–22 funding glut being flushed out. Carta data shows improving graduation rates. Labels distort. Under-capitalisation as a European challenge.07:59 – Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds - Be More GermanFund to secure strategic sectors: defence, energy, raw materials. Leverages €10B public → target €100B private. Germany’s growth stagnation since 2019 needs reversal.18:35 – UK Autumn Budget Of MiseryLikely tax rises despite Labour’s pledges - risk making UK unattractive for VC & startups. Millionaire exodus, low PE carried interest returns signal concern.22:09 – UK Interest Rate Cut Says What?BOE cuts from 4.25% → 4% despite sticky inflation (3.6% → rising to 4%). Growth fears outweigh inflation fight – signals economic fragility. Will lower rates make VC relatively more attractive?23:29 – OECD: Weak Corporate Investment Is Bad NewsInvestment still 20% below pre-GFC trends; physical asset investment lagging. Productivity stagnation since 2008. Corporates prioritising dividends over long-term growth.40:11 – EU Chips Act 2.0 - Can We, Should We?Act 1 mega fail: Missed 20% market share goal; may hit only 5% by 2030. Intel exit, focus on low-end chips, global oversupply, poor US trade terms. Need to attract TSMC/Samsung for cutting-edge fabs. Europe must avoid “please everyone” industrial policy. Chip demand will keep growing; still time to compete.50:35 – Mega AI CornerGPT-5 “soon” Anthropic’s Claude 4.1 leading in reliability. OpenAI launches first open-source model since GPT-2. Mega-rounds: OpenAI $8B, Mistral $10B, Perplexity raising. Open vs. closed source. IP & “decomposition” debate:1:04:04 – Deal of the WeekClay – $100M at $3.1B; widely used contact intelligence tool.n8n – Valuation surges past €2B amid investor frenzy.Voltrac – Spanish autonomous electric tractor; 70% fewer parts, strong ROI.AI in politics: Sweden’s PM admits using ChatGPT for second opinions.Recorded 7 August 2025