US economy sees increased odds of soft or no landing

On this episode of the CRE Exchange, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst of Altus Group, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research of Altus Group, take a look at recent central bank actions across the globe as each major market grapples with whether to hike, hold or cut their rates. Narrowing the lens to US regional banks, they review the latest earnings reports, which continue to contend with CRE-related risk in their portfolios. In addition, they analyze how the latest US macro indicators support an evolving narrative toward a soft landing or no landing for the economy.Key Takeaways: (00:56) Global central banks are pursuing diverse monetary policies.(04:38) December’s PCE and income data indicate strong US consumer spending and potential for a soft economic landing.(05:52) Q4 2023 GDP growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong consumer spending.(07:18) LEI indicates potential economic contraction in Q2 and Q3 2024.(08:52) Consumer sentiment significantly improved in January.(09:54) Home sales declined, reflecting high mortgage rates.(11:48) Regional banks report declining earnings and deposits.(14:22) The airline sector reports increased revenue and strong leisure travel demand.(17:38) Cole discusses the resilience and growth of the grocery sector in post-pandemic retail trends.(19:37) The CRE sentiment survey is live, seeking broad industry participation for comprehensive insights.(20:53) Upcoming economic data releases include consumer confidence, FOMC rate decisions and job market insights.Resources Mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey Signup -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property