US oil output returns but will be stunted by capex cuts into 2021

US oil producers have started bringing some shut-in wells back online since this spring's price crash. S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the nearly all the shut-in volumes to come back by October. But US oil output will continue to decline as a result of some $41 billion in capital expenditure cuts announced by drillers this year. Ash Singh, manager of non-OPEC supply at Platts Analytics, expects US production to decline around 500,000 b/d year on year in 2020 and more than 1.5 million b/d in 2021. That would put US output about 3.4 million b/d below Platts' pre-price collapse forecast by end-2021. We asked Singh about which US basins would come back first, how a potential Dakota Access Pipeline shutdown would impede the Bakken's return, and what's happening with other non-OPEC producers outside of the US and Canada. Singh also shares his outlook for US crude exports and whether second-wave coronavirus outbreaks or rising US-China tensions will alter that picture.