Vol Is Crushed. Risk Isn’t | What the Largest OPEX In History Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent and Jack break down the September OPEX, which may be the largest ever. With volatility deeply suppressed, a record call skew, and the Fed meeting coinciding with VIX expiration, markets are set up for potential fireworks. The conversation explores how derivatives flows shape equities, why this expiration could be a turning point, and what investors should watch around key levels like 6,500.Topics CoveredRecord zero DTE volumes and their market impactWhy September OPEX may be the largest expiration everThe “vol pop zombie hunter” theme and what it signalsHow option dealer hedging drives equity flowsThe correlation between gamma positioning and volatilityMacro dynamics: rate cuts, liquidity, and potential bubble parallelsWhy call skew is extreme but call prices remain lowHow suppressed implied vol sets up risk of a volatility spikeThe VIX futures curve, ETF flows, and market dislocationsKey levels to watch: 6,500 and beyond for downside riskTimestamps00:00 – Zero DTE dominance and setup into September OPEX02:00 – “Vol Pop Zombie Hunter” theme explained06:00 – How options flows translate into equity moves11:00 – Options expiration cycles and turning points16:00 – Largest expirations and potential market reversals20:00 – Extreme call skew and positioning risks28:00 – Sector positioning and the lack of call demand33:00 – Correlation lows and implications for market breadth37:00 – Realized and implied volatility at historic lows43:00 – VIX futures curve, ETFs, and contango dynamics50:00 – Risks below 6,500 and the role of JP Morgan’s collar53:00 – The destabilizing effect of disappearing zero DTE flows