War, Rates & Resilience: Making Sense of Bitcoin in a Crisis

This episode was recorded live via X Spaces - audio quality varies in places.In the inaugural CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded April 1 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA and Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac for a wide-ranging markets discussion. The team unpacks Bitcoin's surprising resilience during Operation Epic Fury, why traditional safe havens like Treasuries failed to protect portfolios, and what the Fed's paralysis between inflation and a weakening labor market means for rate expectations heading into the Powell-to-Warsh transition. They also dig into the breakdown of the Bitcoin–M2 money supply relationship (and why that dislocation may signal undervaluation), MicroStrategy's evolving capital structure and preferred yield, the emerging world of Bitcoin structured products, and what institutional appetite on the ground at DAS tells us about where the market is heading next.00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome01:02 – Operation Epic Fury: Market Reactions & Surprises03:34 – Why Treasuries Failed as a Safe Haven04:41 – Bitcoin's Resilience: Holding the Line Through Conflict05:49 – CF Benchmarks Flagship Index Recap06:42 – Macro Regimes & Bitcoin's Shifting Role08:58 – NFP Preview & Labor Market Weakness10:20 – Fed Policy Paralysis: Inflation vs. Employment12:54 – Powell's Exit, Warsh's Nomination & Fed Composition17:30 – Should the Fed Look Through the Inflation Spike?19:28 – Global Money Supply & Bitcoin: Building a Forecast Model21:27 – Correlation ≠ Causation: Why Factors Break Down25:05 – Market Dislocations: Gold vs. Real Yields, Forex & M2-BTC Divergence28:07 – Where's the Fair Value? The Case for BTC Undervaluation31:30 – Gold vs. Bitcoin Flows: A Rotation Underway?34:10 – MicroStrategy: Treasury Strategy, Preferred Shares & Yield39:02 – Could MSTR Acquire Discount Treasury Companies?41:14 – Structured Products: Packaging Bitcoin for Institutions46:17 – Bitcoin Volatility Index & Covered Call ETFs50:32 – Vol Products Paradox: Does Selling Vol Kill Vol?52:56 – Institutional Appetite Post-DAS & What's Next55:03 – Closing Remarks